Is It Time to Worry about the Patriots Struggles to Develop Their Top Draft Picks?

When the Patriots lost their top draft pick Isaiah Wynn for the season thanks to a blown Achilles, I rolled with it. It’s a tough blow and I was enjoying watching the rookie in his limited role and anxious to see what he could do under Dante Scarnecchia’s legendary Miyagiship, so it’s disappointing, no doubt. But on the other hand, Trent Brown appears to have settled his massive self into the left tackle spot and as it was, Wynn was third on the right tackle depth chart behind Marcus Cannon and LaAdrian Waddle. Which, even thought the Pats’ coaches like Waddle more than their graphic arts department:

… means they were probably projecting Wynn to have a redshirt freshman year, like the one they gave Nate Solder back in 2011, backing up Matt Light and filling in at RT.

But what is moving the needle for me is the fact that along with Wynn, the Patriots are getting nothing out of their other first rounder, Sony Michel. He hasn’t seen the field since August 1st. Assuming he doesn’t practice today (Note: I am), that’ll make 12 straight practices he’s missed, an eternity for a rookie running back. I’m a big proponent of reserving the inner circle of hell for the people who incite panic about injured rookies and scream that you never should’ve drafted them before they’ve completed a season. Let’s give them two or three seasons at least before you label a guy “injury prone.” You know a RB who fell in the draft because there were concerns about his “durability”? Curtis Martin. Who finally did have his career cut short by a knee injury. Twelve years and 14.000 yards later.

But looking at Wynn and Michel so far from a macro, big picture, Google Earth perspective, it does add to a growing problem with the Pats over the last few years. And that is, their failure at the top end of the draft to select and develop players that stick. The top talent you need to be your cornerstone players in the long term. Consider the list of first- and second-rounders they’ve drafted since 2010:

That’s 19 names selected in the first two rounds over a span of nine drafts. And by the objective measure of success which is earning an extension beyond your rookie deal and being a starter in that second contract, four guys qualify: Rob Gronkowski, Devin McCourty, Solder and Dont’a Hightower.

My point isn’t that they can’t draft. I’m not endorsing that tired and long discredited cliché that “Belichick the GM isn’t helping Belichick the coach.” Statistically, about 40 percent of all draft picks work out. Meaning that for all the money teams throw into college scouting, the odds of striking it right are about the same as catching the clap from an Amsterdam hooker. (Or so I hear.) Which is exactly why the Patriots prefer that sweet spot in the second and third rounds, because the cost of that 60 percent failure is lower. As Michael Lombardi points out in his book, Bill Walsh had the same philosophy. And in fact built the 49ers dynasty by trading the fuck down in the 1984 draft, stockpiling  picks in the later rounds and future years. Besides, Belichick the GM has scored so many direct hits in later rounds (Julian Edelman, Marcus Cannon) that he doesn’t need to apologize to you, me or any of the personnel geniuses bitching him out on talk radio.

My concern is how long they can sustain this run that they’re on with their top picks before it catches up with them. For all the home runs they’ve hit on the second and third days of the draft, at some point they’re going to need more McCourtys and Hightowers. Won’t they?

Just look at the last few years and what they’ve gotten out of their No. 1 overall pick:

–2018: Wynn, out for his rookie season. And Michel very much in doubt.
–2017: Traded for one year of Brandin Cooks, whom they flipped for the Wynn pick. Their first pick is Derek Rivers in the third round, who misses his rookie season.
–2016: First rounder stolen by Roger Goodell. Their first pick is Cyrus Jones, who has missed his first and second seasons.
–2015: Malcom Brown, a productive space eating interior D-lineman, who didn’t get tender offer for next year.
–2014: Dominique Easley, another D-tackle who went on IR as a rookie and released after his second season.

Yikes. When you put it that way… Return on Investment like that is what you end up with when you could’ve bought Netflix five years ago but you put it all into Blockbuster. And talentwise, would bankrupt a less disciplined team who can withstand the losses. And obviously the future is still bright for guys like Wynn, Michel and Rivers. I’m just beginning to wonder how long they can sustain a record of failure like this before it finally catches up with them.