Advanced Stats Guys are Saying James White is the MVP of Running Backs

I know James White is valuable. You know James White is valuable. Your kid knows. Nana knows. Your dog knows. Everyone on your Facebook changing their profile pics to themselves with their “I Voted” stickers know. I suspect even the guys on The Sports Hub who hate everything and everybody in Foxboro would admit James White is wicked valuable. In two-plus seasons of turnover, injuries and suspensions at the Patriots skill positions, his reliability has been the one constant in the Patriots offense. That is self-evident.

But what if I told you the advanced stats guys are making a case that this year Sweet Feet has been the most valuable running back in the NFL? Ahead of Todd Gurley, even though Gurley is getting MVP and Offensive Player of the Year Talk?

From Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus:

The league MVP so far is your favorite between Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees. Using our WAR metric, the most valuable non-quarterbacks through nine weeks have been Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins, Aaron Donald and Michael Thomas …

Be that as it may, there’s a secondary question to ask: Is Todd Gurley the most-valuable running back in the NFL, or are there other players that have a claim to this spot? Running the football, even as well as the Rams do it, is not nearly as valuable as throwing the ball, . … As such, the most valuable running back in the NFL to this point is none other than James White of the Patriots, with his WAR ringing in at 30th in the NFL through nine weeks.

… White has turned 260 routes, the most among running backs, into 531 receiving yards (also most) on 77 targets – good for over two yards per route run, an efficiency that is difficult to maintain under such volume. His 478 yards after the catch are both second to Saquon Barkley and demonstrate that he’s making some of his plays downfield, with an aDOT roughly two yards better than Gurley (with half as many drops). He’s generated over 50 yards receiving in all but two Patriots games, and he’s scored at least one receiving touchdown in five games. He’s earned 10 more first downs through the air than any other running back so far, and he’s received a positive grade on 46% of his targets, which is also the best mark at his position.

If running is your thing, White has added another 235 yards and four touchdowns on the ground … And for that, despite what is widely believed, James White has been the running back that has impacted his team the most through the season’s first nine weeks.

Well I’ll be damned. And while I admit this still sounds a little counter-intuitive to me, with Gurley on pace for 1,500 yards and 28 TDs. Plus I’m sort of only a recreational advances stats guy. I just use them on weekends and at parties, not every day or during work hours. But still, I get the point PFF is making about how Gurley puts up big numbers behind an elite offensive line that a quality back can run well behind. Whereas White generates yards, 1st downs and touchdowns other backs can’t.

All this said, PFF doesn’t have White any higher than the 30th most valuable player in the league. Which is no knock on him, it’s merely a reflection of how little stock the Mathletes numbers put on the importance of the position. But it is a scorching hot take to make the case that pro football has evolved to the point a 5-10, 200lb, 4th round, 3rd down back with 235 yards on the ground could be the best RB in the game.

You wouldn’t get an argument out of the Falcons, that’s for damned sure. Never. Gets. Old.