The Most Important Trends To Watch For The 10 Best College Basketball Teams
Each team in college basketball has a calling card, similar to the Wet and/or Sticky Bandits. The question though, and something I’m hoping to figure out through this blog and research, is just what is this calling card, how important of a trend is it and can a team win with such a thing. We’ll look at the current top-10 in my poll, because I hate the AP poll.
Duke – Poor free throw shooting
Right now Duke has very few weaknesses. That said, one of them is the fact that Duke is not a good free throw shooting team. Right now they rank 231st in free throw shooting percentage. Part of the reason why is a guy like Tre Jone shooting 61%, RJ Barrett shooting 65% and Zion shooting 70%. What I’m curious to see is what happens late in game with Duke holding onto a lead. The game against Texas Tech was a bit different since Duke made the come back and it wasn’t really free throws late. Do they pull a guy like Barrett off the floor offensively? Do they go with someone like Jones/O’Connell/White/Reddish/Zion? This is something we’ve seen absolutely ruin teams during the NCAA Tournament, will this be why Duke doesn’t win a title?
Michigan – Getting free points thanks to John Beilein
There’s no one better in the country than Michigan when it comes to scoring on baseline out of bounds plays. It’s a tired statement, but it really is like having strong special teams in football. That’s what Michigan has right now. Not necessarily a surprise with John Beilein being one of the best coaches in America. They are scoring 1.2 points per possession on these out of bounds plays. With Michigan shortening the game with one of the slowest tempos in the country, getting these free points is a massive advantage.
Virginia – Keeping De’Andre Hunter at the 4 spot
This is the key for Virginia going forward. Perhaps I should have been more specific about the trend to watch for Virginia – which would be the healthy and play of Kihei Clark and Braxton Key. Keeping Hunter at the four lets Virginia do what they want to do, especially defensively. You can’t really spread Virginia out like we saw UMBC do last year without Hunter on the floor. Clark has been a real pleasant surprise so far quite honestly. He was originally committed to UC-Davis before blowing up with the Oakland Soldiers and then committing to Virginia. His play has kept Hunter at the 4 and given Virginia a third shooter from the guard spot.
Tennessee – Dominating out of pick and roll sets
Tennessee currently ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to pick and roll plays including passes. There are two main reasons why. The first one being the ability to pick and roll or pick and pop with Grant Williams/Admiral Schofield. The other one is Jordan Bone is top-50 in the country when it comes to assist rate. Tennessee can let Williams even handle the ball and run big/big screens. The ability to run the offense through a forward or hybrid wing like these two is just so unique.
Gonzaga – The best offense in the country getting better
Gonzaga right now has the best offense in the country. They are scoring 122.1 points per 100 possessions. It’s downright impressive. Maybe it’s not that shocking with the likes of Zach Norvell, Josh Perkins and Rui Hachimura out there, but this offense is going to get better. The addition of Killian Tillie is giving Gonzaga another 40%+ 3pt shooter and guy who can stretch the floor. This is also making up for Gonzaga’s average defense. Right now that’s the weakness for Gonzaga, but the offense should get better with the addition of Tillie. Perhaps you lose some minutes from guys like Kispert/Petrusev, etc., but Tillie is going to be a plus.
Nevada – Continuing to take care of the ball
One of the most impressive things in college hoops is how Nevada takes care of the ball playing that tempo. The Wolf Pack are 3rd in the country at not turning the ball over while playing possessions in an average of under 17 seconds. This was the case from last year as well, but what makes it more impressive this year is Nevada adjusting the lineup. Last year pretty much everything was 5-out offensively and this year they are playing more with bigs like Trey Porter and Jordan Brown.
Kansas – Lagerald Vick looking like an All-American
There may not be a bigger individual surprise this year than Lagerald Vick. He’s won Kansas a couple of games this year and has turned into a potential All-American right now. His true shooting percentage is 65% while shooting 50% from three. This was never who he was. There are times where he completely disappears – the Wofford/New Mexico State games – but then there are times like Stanford where he flat out wins. Right now Kansas has been Lawson, Vick and then other guys around them. If Grimes isn’t going to live up to the hype, Azubuike rehabbing injury, etc., Vick is the most important player for Kansas.
Florida State – Continuing to press the hell defensively
Florida State presses more than but 6 teams in college basketball with at least 10 possessions pressing. They run a press 35% of the time according to Synergy sports. It’s one of the more weird looks in college basketball. We see guys panic against a press late in games, especially come conference tournament and NCAA Tournament time. But, to do it the entire year is something that used to really only be a Pitino thing and then mid-majors. With the addition of Phil Cofer and getting another body in the rotation and depth we’re going to see Hamilton continue to press. They are also doing it to force turnovers .They are 18th in the country in forcing turnovers and they look to immediately get into transition.
Texas Tech – Bothering every single shot defensively
Texas Tech right now ranks No. 1 defensively, No. 1 in 3pt defense, No. 2 in 2pt defense and 10th in block percentage. They all go hand in hand. What Chris Beard wants to do is adjust to opponents – like we saw against Duke when they ran essentially a fort defense. On top of that he wants to put pressure on shooters. We see Tech rotate and force guys into where the help is. This isn’t a great offensive team, but they do have Jarrett Culver and Matt Mooney. What this is though is a great defensive team. They make teams uncomfortable.
Michigan State – Sharing the ball
The Spartans are 5th in the country right now in assist rate. At this time last year they were 1st. It’s damn impressive what they do in terms of getting everyone involved and that’s largely due to Cassius Winston. He’s 8th in the country in assist rate. This is going to be key for a different reason this year. Last year they had the talent to where they could just let Bridges/Jackson go. This year it’s a bunch of good players and Winston’s ability to get others involved is massive.