Trilly Grades Your Prebuild: San Antonio Spurs Edition
Welcome back,
You can find past entries here but I’ll warn you now, there are only seventeen: Pistons, Clippers, Heat, Kings, Lakers, Cavs, Wizards, Pelicans, Suns, Wolves, Mavs, Hawks, Magic, Hornets, Knicks, Bulls, and Grizzlies.
I’ll take a look at three things they did well, three things they failed at and three things they could do this summer to improve. I’ll issue one of two grades based on my findings: Oh hell yeah (good) or Oh no (bad). This is the internet, things are classic or trash with no in between. You wouldn’t expect nuance on Twitter so please do not expect it here. Thank you.
San Antonio Spurs (48-34, 7th place Western Conference)
Good Things
1. This fucking team
They just keep on trucking. Fake healthy Kawhi? 47 wins. No Kawhi at all? 48 wins. Dejounte Murray out for the season? No worries, Derrick White stepped right in and played some All-NBA caliber defense of his own. Lonnie Walker got hurt before the season but do not fret, we have *presses bifocals against stat sheet* Bryn Forbes ready to play all 82. In a three-pointer crazy league, the Spurs ranked dead last in 3PA rate and still finished 7th in offensive rating. The Spurs haven’t won less than 47 games since 1998-99, which was the 50 game lockout season when they won 74% of their games and the title. Incredible.
2. Reinforcements are on the way
Walker tore his meniscus on October 6th and Murray tore his ACL the next day. Walker missed 65 games while Murray missed the entire season, but both figure to come into next season healthy. 2018 second rounder Chimezie Metu had a nice rookie campaign in the G-league and played 29 games in the majors. Remember that when he makes second-team All-NBA defense or leads the league in Real Plus-Minus or they put Kawhi’s old operating system in him and he starts rolling off All-Star appearances.
They’ll have two first-rounders this year (19 and 29, from TOR) and they’ve shown they can find value all over the draft. It’d be a real shame if my boy Tyler Herro found his way to San Antonio at 19 and Matisse Thybulle joined him there at 29. Derrick White should have plenty of company in a talented young backcourt.
3. Roster continuity
As of right now, eight of the ten leaders in minutes played are under contract for next season. The remaining two are either re-signable (Rudy Gay) or replaceable (Dante Cunningham). LaMarcus Aldridge and Patty Mills have two more seasons left on their contract. Demar Derozan, Davis Bertans, Marco Belinelli, Jakob Poetl and Forbes all have at least one more year. And the young guns from the paragraph above are all still on rookie deals. SA is only about eight million under the salary cap, but are about 30 million under the luxury tax. That’s plenty of room to re-sign Gay, add another solid piece and sign your rookies.
Bad Things
1.
What an absolute chore it was for me to watch the 2018-19 Spurs in action. Many are commending me for my bravery. Derozan/Aldridge combined to take over 2600 shots from the field this season. 87 of them were three-point shots; they made 17 combined. 48 wins, seventh in offensive rating, ball movement, and whathaveyou, etc. Respectfully, I am not trying to watch that shit.
2. Antiquated offense
There’s zagging when the league zigs, and there’s being stubborn. As mentioned earlier, the Spurs were 30th in three-pointers attempted. They were first in three-point percentage at 39% (league average is 36%). SA had five guys (Forbes, Marco Belinelli, Patty Mills, Davis Bertans, Gay) that shot at least 37% from 3P and not one of them took more than five three-pointers per game. Everyone can’t be James Harden taking 10+ threes a game but when you have that many guys that can shoot that well, it feels like a disservice to your team. The Spurs finished 24th in FTr as well so they aren’t making up for it at the line. If I know my best two players refuse to shoot threes then I need every other player bombing away from three. You can preach “the best shot is an open shot” all day but the league has shifted and it’s time to tweak some things.
3. All good things must come to an end
Peter Holt bought the Spurs in 1993 and retired in 2016 so his wife could run things. GM RC Buford has held his position since 1994 and Popovich has been on staff since 1996. The ownership part I’m not as worried about, but I could see Buford/Popovich deciding to call it quits as a package deal.
The playoff streak is nice and all but two straight first-round losses are less than ideal. Toronto Kawhi is healthy as ALL hell and the Spurs didn’t handle that situation as well as they could have. They gave away Danny Green for some reason??? Imagine the defensive potential of a Murray/White/Green/Walker backcourt. They traded a top-three player for a package with a high ceiling but a low floor. The Nuggets series was a winnable one for SA and the decision not to foul at the end of game seven was peculiar. This team, as constructed, is making the second round at most and probably getting smoked once they get there. Bringing back the same team is nice but that continuity probably isn’t pushing past teams with blue-chip talent, which the Spurs don’t have at the moment.
Of course, you let Pop and Buford stay as long as they’d like. They’ve earned that much. But the game has changed, both in how you play on the court and how you handle star talent off of it. I won’t say the game has passed them by, but I also don’t know if San Antonio should be willing to wait until it does.
Trilly’s Summer Prescription
1. Consider breaking up the “big two”
I’m not sure which of Derozan or Aldridge would have more trade value, but it may be time to find out. Derozan is about to turn 30 and has two seasons left on his deal at $27 mill per (the second is a player option he will most certainly decline to hit UFA). His scoring took a dip and he removed threes from his game altogether, but he had career years in rebounding, passing and defending. The bet on trading him is that you get something for him before he opts out and you lose him for nothing or worse, are stuck paying his next deal.
Aldridge is 33 and his best years are behind him, but he’s still playing at an All-Star level and is on a reasonable contract (two years, $50 mill remaining). The FA market for bigs isn’t a great one so the Spurs may have an advantage here. The best “available” bigs are Kristaps Porzingis, Nikola Vucevic, Demarcus Cousins and MAYBE Al Horford. Porzingis is a RFA, he isn’t going anywhere. Horford probably opts out to return to Boston and Boogie is coming off another rough injury. Vucevic is interesting but his max is 4 years/$140 mill. I like Vuc but I’d rather trade for Aldridge if that’s the price it will take to get him.
Since you asked, I think I trade Derozan. A healthy backcourt of Murray/White/Walker helps cover his perimeter defense and Mills/Forbes/that #19 pick should be able to help on offense. And I value Aldridge’s rim protection over Derozan’s ability to create a shot. Who takes him? The Nets and Clippers have cap space but are probably too smart. The Knicks and Lakers have cap space and will certainly panic if they strike out in FA. Dallas would be intriguing as Doncic/Porzingis could provide the spacing/rim protection Derozan needs to be the best version of himself. The Pacers have a ton of cap space and a need for playmakers outside of Oladipo. You probably don’t get much back for him but the Spurs clearly don’t care about getting value back for stars so it works. The market is there.
2. Run it back
The most likely option, and understandably so. You can do a hell of a lot worse than winning 48 games and bringing back your front office, top nine players from the year before AND Dejounte/rookies. Maybe Durant goes East, the Nuggets struggle to repeat their success or Nurkic takes a while to get back into form. Maybe you slide into the second round and get a favorable matchup or catch a team while they’re battling injuries.
That would lead you into the summer of 2020 with max cap space and only Aldridge/Mills/youngsters under contract after Derozan opts out. Not too shabby.
3. Contingency plan
Buford is only 58, so maybe he sticks around after Pop hangs up the whistle. Maybe not. Pop turned 70 this season and had a tough sports year and a tougher non-sports year. What’s the plan here? Do you just cross that bridge when you get to it? I’m not sure if SA is enough of a free agency draw or has enough in-house talent to do that. Maybe a plan where Pop agrees to move into the front office with Buford and Becky Hammon is named coach in waiting? Or Ettore Messina. Or Ime Udoka.
My fear here as a recovering Bengals fan (you have my word this will be the LAST time the Bengals and Spurs are ever mentioned together) is that without a legitimate path to a title or bottoming out, you keep spinning your wheels while all the good assistants go elsewhere the way Mike Zimmer/Jay Gruden did. By choosing Hammon (or Messina/Udoka/whoever) as successor, you get the ball rolling on what the next generation of Spurs basketball looks like. Your other coaches, current players, and potential Spurs would have a sense of comfort that Pop/Buford don’t ride off into the sunset leaving someone else to hold the bag. In this case, the bag is full of midrange jumpers so nobody wants that.
Prebuild Status: They’re living in no man’s land, but at least in a nice part of town. Oh hell yea