Browns Will Clinch Winning Record, Or Get Steamrolled By Derrick Henry Today - Week 13 Preview Presented By Skyhio
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I'll cut to the chase, I think the Browns get fucking worked today.
The secondary is tragic, especially with Denzel Ward out, and I have remained high on the Tennessee Titans and Ryan Tannehill all season long. I just can't see the Browns getting enough (or any) stops today, even if Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt keep them in the game.
But, guess what… I am here to say that is okay.
Just make the damn playoffs, and I will be happy. The Browns' defense is far too terrible to win any important Playoff games, but the stepping-stone of just getting in and breaking the draught is important. Would today be a huge win? Yes. Is it a must-win? No, not yet.
This is what the Browns have left:
- vs. Houston (W)
- vs. Philadelphia (W)
- @ Jacksonville (W)
- @ Tennessee
- vs. Baltimore (MNF)
- @ New York Giants
- @ New York Jets
- vs. Pittsburgh
The worst position the Browns could find themselves in today with the 6th seed. With the Dolphins playing the Bengals, Raiders playing the Jets, Ravens playing the Cowboys (on Tuesday), and Colts playing the Texans, I imagine the teams the Browns need to lose all win this weekend. Deshaun Watson might have something to say about that, but we shall see. Even if all of that happens, and the Browns lose, they won't fall further than the 6th seed in the AFC.
Next week is where things get hairy, the Browns must beat the Giants & Jets, which would give them a 10-6 record, but given their opponents closing schedules, that record might not be enough. A win at home on Monday Night Football against the Ravens may be the difference. You could say the same about the Steelers game in Week 17, but it's such a whacky situation that it's almost not worth addressing yet. Will the Steelers go for 16-0 if they have the #1 seed locked up? With the Chiefs on their heels, it seems unlikely the Steelers will even have a choice.
Anyway, I am getting too far ahead of myself. Let's see what the Browns do today in Nashville, but my point remains, if they lose, I won't be rattled all that much.
I'm enjoying 8-3! Let's hope they find a way to turn it into 10-6 or 11-5.
How about we go with some self-deprecation in this historic Browns look-back?
Remember where it all went to shit for the Browns last season?
Week 1!
Everything ended Week 1 last season, we just didn't know it at that point. After the most electric opening-drive in Browns history, they got absolutely fucking whacked. Hopefully, the Browns focus (Freddie Kitchens isn't there, so I imagine it will be) is better this time around.
NOTE: The lines may have changed since this graphic was made…
Once again, thanks to a bullshit penalty on Olivier Vernon, I split my picks last week.
I have been on-fire with the game totals, so let's stick with the OVER again, as both defenses are average (to poor) enough, coupled with the Browns terrible secondary, to give up a ton of points today.
While I have faith the Browns can win, I just don't think they will. The Titans have a step up on them in terms of being legit contenders, and the exciting Cleveland team just isn't there… yet.
PICKS: Titans +5, OVER 53
SEASON RECORD: 12-8 (ATS: 5-6, O/U: 8-3)
CLEVELAND OUT: Denzel Ward (CB), KhaDarel Hodge (WR), Taywan Taylor (WR), Porter Gustin (DE), Tedric Thompson (S), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (S)
CLEVELAND QUESTIONABLE: Nick Harris (C), Vincent Taylor (DT)
TENNESSEE OUT: Adoree' Jackson (CB), Jonnu Smith (TE),
TENNESSEE QUESTIONABLE: Jeffrey Simmons (DT), Roger Saffold III (G), Isaiah Wilson (OT)
The good news? Myles Garrett isn't on the list.
The bad news? Denzel Ward remains on it.
Tennessee has a few absent players as well today, including Jonnu Smith, who always seems to find the end zone. That's decent injury news for the Browns, because they haven't stopped a tight end since the 1980s.
Denzel Ward was having a Pro Bowl, shit, All-Pro season, and should be back next week, but if his absence was enough to help MIKE FUCKING GLENNON torch the Browns, Tannehill's mouth must be watering right now.
The run game needs to have their biggest game of the season.
The Titans defense gives up yards and the ground, and the Browns have to let Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt eat today.
No matter who they play, I have confidence that the Browns can wear down defenses by the time the fourth quarter rolls around…
Nick Chubb is like a closer in baseball. He's been the Mariano Rivera of the NFL this season. He could have a poor first three quarters then rip off one big 60-yard, bruising fourth quarter run and end the game.
Today, Chubb & Hunt have to get to work earlier, though. They'll face stacked boxes, no doubt, but the offensive line as healthy as it has been in weeks and they need to get a much better push. They've been tossed around in a few spots the last few weeks, but they need to bully the Titans front-seven this week.
The reasoning? Open it up for the Baker Mayfield play-action.
Look, I know everyone only wants to talk about this…
I mean, yeah, it fucking stunk, I won't beat around the bush. Baker's mechanics still have some issues. It's infuriating watching him make throws like the one above, but then turn around and do this…
It makes no sense, but with his footwork change under Alex Van Pelt is still a work in progress and I won't jump on the hot-take train that so many want to ride on with Baker Mayfield. If he still misses these easy throws next year? We have a problem, but not realizing the leap he has taken after last year's disaster, and with yet another offense, is just ignorant at this point.
Over his last five games, including three apocalyptic weather instances, Baker Mayfield's stats have been:
- 77 for 124 (62%)
- 1,103 yards
- 7 TD
- 1 INT
World-ending? No. Good enough to protect the offense and lead the team to victories? Yes. He has made the right throws when he needs to and hasn't turned the ball over. But Baker was two easy throw misses and one dropped touchdown against the Jaguars away from those numbers being excellent. He isn't close to the likes of Mahomes, but he is much farther away from a lot of negativity and hate he gets.
Today could be a big step for him, especially in the eyes of those who only follow his misses or see the low-lights of his games. The Titans' pass defense isn't great, and they don't really get to the quarterback. Baker has to make the easy throws, and if he does, the Browns have more than a fighting chance today. It's not a day where the third-year quarterback can get away with errors or mistakes.
Now for the migraine-inducing part of the team…
First off, it's great to see Myles Garrett back.
No doubt his Defensive Player of the Year campaign was hurt from his absence due to COVID-19, but the Browns winning games without him was huge and you have to imagine he is hungry today…
The Titans have been great at keeping their own Texas A&M product in Tannehill upright this season, but they are on their third-string offensive tackle and, per usual, Myles Garrett is going to be the force behind what makes the defense work today.
(Worth noting that the offensive tackle is David Quessenberry, who boasts a great story after beating cancer)
Another player on the defensive line I will have my eye on is Olivier Vernon.
He was excellent in Myles Garrett's absence, which is odd considering he never really looks that great when Garrett is healthy and being double-teamed. It's puzzling, and many assumed Olivier Vernon wouldn't be around much longer in Cleveland, but his resurgence has been huge. His play has to remain elevated and high now that Garrett is back and, I'll say it again, it's odd that it took the All-Pro defensive end being out for the former Giant to wake up a bit as a Cleveland Brown.
The Browns run defense doesn't rank as low as you'd think, but that's all smoke and mirrors. They get torched in the passing game, so their run defense numbers don't look nearly as bad. Derrick Henry will have his way with the Browns' defense today.
With that said, I have yet to mention the secondary…
… and that's because it isn't Derrick Henry who I am concerned about today, it's Ryan Tannehill against this poor Browns secondary.
They are my one thing to watch because I have a fear that Tannehill is about to carve them up.
Tannehill has been very solid against two fantastic defenses in Indianapolis and Baltimore the last few weeks. He's gone 35 for 53 with 480 yards, three touchdowns, and only one interception.
If the Browns struggle like they did last week against MIKE FUCKING GLENNON (good lord), then they have virtually no chance today.
They went a stretch against the Bengals and Raiders in which they forced one punt over two games. Today the Browns have to come up with a few stops. They need to force the Titans to abandon the run game a little bit. It's a massive uphill battle for Cleveland this afternoon.
What a matchup today!
Impartial fans are in for a treat today.
Keep it close? Maybe pull off a stunner? Today will be quite interesting.
But I think the Titans hammer home a solid double-digit win with a late Derrick Henry-fueled touchdown drive. I just don't think the Browns are going to win upfront today and Henry, along with Tannehill will prove to be too much. The Browns have been out-physicaled before, so I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen against this weekend.
PREDICTION: Titans defeat Browns, 34-21