The Falcons are Reportedly Taking Offers for the No. 4 Pick and Don't Think for a Hot Second the Patriots Aren't in the Mix
At a time like this, when NFL teams are still scrambling to solidify their roster ahead of the draft, a move like the Panthers trading a couple of picks for Sam Darnold creates a ripple effect that is felt across every team with an uncertain quarterback situation. Not the least of which is the one that Darnold was drafted two years ago to overtake. The franchise that had him going Full Shaggy the year before last. The point is, there aren't many teams left that either don't have their QB1 already or aren't all set to take theirs in the draft. Which means the few that are still looking find their fates very much interconnected. Pull a thread on one and they all feel the tug. Now with Carolina getting their guy, that eliminates one franchise off the buyer's list.
So this is big news:
Big for everyone in a draft class that is ridiculously top heavy at the quarterback position. And for the Patriots in particular. Here's an excellent breakdown of the QB situation of the teams picking ahead of them:
The mere fact the Falcons are even entertaining offers makes it pretty apparent they are prepared to grow old with Matt Ryan, for better or worse. If they were thinking about dumping him, they'd do so now and take up with one of these younger, hotter types.
Which would really only leave Denver standing between the Pats and the fourth or fifth best quarterback on the board. Presuming nobody trades up ahead of them, of course. And it's reasonable to wonder whether the Broncos are down on Drew Lock enough to give up on him now. Yes, last season was a step backwards for him. He led the league in interceptions last year in only 13 starts. But as a rookie he threw only three picks in five starts - with seven touchdowns and a passer rating just shy of 90.0. While that's a small sample, it was higher than Tom Brady's. And begs the question whether they're ready to break up now, so soon after they used the 42nd overall pick to get him.
If the Patriots think the Broncos (or anyone moving up into the top 15) are ready to take the sloppy fourths and fifths left behind by Jacksonville, the Jets and San Francisco, then absolutely they are in the mix for Atlanta's pick. I'd be stunned beyond the capacity for rational thought if they are not one of the "multiple teams" on the phone with the Falcons as we speak. Do do anything less would be out of character for 2021 Bill Belichick. From before free agency began, he's had his Aggressiveness Level set to "Godzilla" and there's been no King Kong to stop him. It's impossible to imagine he's going to let up now, provided he can meet the Falcons asking price.
And therein lies the rub. The closest parallel you can draw for a move from No. 15 to No. 4 would seem to be the Niners going from 12th to third. And that cost them two future 1sts and next year's 3rd rounder. It's hard to picture even a hyper-aggressive GM Bill paying that kind of a premium for any player. It's just simply never been a part of his M.O. at the top of the draft. But at the same time, the reality is he would have to part with at least a future No. 1 to make the math work.
Going by the old Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Chart - and you can scoff all you want but you don't see anyone else coming up with one, and Belichick's trades have always fallen pretty close to these values - Atlanta's pick is worth 1800 points, and the Pats 15th pick is worth 1050. Their next two picks, No. 46 (440) and No. 96 (116) would still leave them about 200 points shy. And their later picks are of such diminishing value, they won't close that gap. In all likelihood, they'd have to throw in their first rounder next year to even keep the Falcons from doing the "Whaaa? I'm going through a tunnel … you're … break-- u-" trick and never call them back. The real suckpill of this is that they might be able to make a reasonable offer that doesn't rob from the 2022 draft if only the league didn't steal a 3rd this year over the nothingburger that was SpyGate 2.0.
If Denver wants to make that move to No. 4, they have draft capital to spare, with picks in the top nine of every round. They could easily make a move along the lines of the one the Bills made in 2018, sending Tampa Bay two 2nds to move up from No. 12 to No. 7 to land Josh Allen.
Just to further put a price on a move up from 15, in that same draft, Arizona sent the Raiders the 79th overall (a 3rd) and the 152nd (a 5th) to move up to the 10th spot to take Josh Rosen. That is pretty much the area of the store the Patriots are shopping in unless they want to borrow heavily from next year to buy a QB this year.
But at this point, we can rule nothing out. Not after the way Belichick has attacked this offseason. And I'm not discounting the possibility that the Falcons don't find a trading partner. Or the one they do find moves up to take an impact defender like OLB Micah Parsons or a skill player like WR Ja'Marr Chase or TE Kyle Pitts and they end up getting their guy (please let it be Mac Jones) without a trade. The only thing that is certain is all the uncertainty. And that if every there was a year a bold move like this was possible in New England, this is it.