College Football Betting Strategies Finale
MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images. Getty Images.Guys.. it's finally over. An entire year of hypothetically gambling using ill-advised strategies has finally come to an end. I actually enjoyed writing this blog every week, and following these picks. Huge shoutout to the shocking amount of people who followed along, which was roughly 10 of you. I'm going to do something different for the Bowl Games, but for now lets take a look at how my final week of fake gambling went, and see if I was able to make any fake money.
Here are how the 5 strategies I used have faired up to this point
Low Team Total Overs: 27-23, $218 (+2.18u)
Giant Money Line Favorites: 43-7, -$78 (-0.78u)
Move The Line Overs: 34-14-1, -$385 (-3.85u)
1st Quarter Unders: 23-27, -$991 (-9.91u)
Long Shot Parlays: 1-49, $2,426 (-24.26u)
The Low Team Total Overs and the Giant Money Line favorites are the only strategies I have a realistic chance of ending up positive. I suppose the Long Shot Parlays still has a chance, but I would have to hit 2 of them, and I've only hit 1 out of 50 up to this point. So that seems like a long shot.
Giant Money Line Favorites: 43-7, -$78 (-0.78u)
Akron 44 @ Northern Illinois 12: Northern Illinois ML
Lost $100 (lmao what a start)
Iowa State 14 @ TCU 62: TCU ML
Won $27
Kansas 27 @ Kansas State 47: Kansas State ML
Won $23
Michigan 45 @ Ohio State 23: Ohio State ML
Lost $100 (lost a whole lot of real money on that one too)
Georgia State 23 @ Marshall 28: Marshall ML
Won $45 (I feel like I've won every time I bet on Marshall this year)
2-3, -$105 (-1.05u) this week. That's unfortunate. I'm still very upset at Ohio State. I bet them pre-game, I bet all their player props, I live bet them when they were losing. I was so certain they would win that game. Now they've ruined my Giant Money Line Favorites strategy. I will never forgive them.
Season Total: 45-10, -$183 (-1.83u)
Move The Line Overs: 34-14-1, -$385 (-3.85u)
Pittsburgh 42 @ Miami 16: Over 35.5
Won $32
Purdue 30 @ Indiana 16: Over 45.5
Won $34
Auburn 27 @ Alabama 49: Over 41
Won $32
Michigan 45 @ Ohio State 23: Over 47.5
Won $32
Georgia Tech 14 @ Georgia 37: Over 41.5
Won $33
5-0, $163 (+1.63u) this week. There we go! What a way to end this strategy that kicked my ass all year long. That's how I envisioned this going. That makes my record here look a little more respectable this week.
Season Total: 39-14-1, -$222 (-2.22u)
Low Team Total Overs: 27-23, $218 (+2.18u)
Army 44 @ UMass 7: UMass over 12.5
Loss $100
Utah 63 @ Colorado 21: Colorado over 10.5
Won $98
Auburn 27 @ Alabama 49: Auburn over 13.5
Won $92
New Mexico State 0 @ Liberty 17: New Mexico State over 13.5
Loss $100
Georgia Tech 14 @ Georgia 37: Georgia Tech over 6.5
Won $77
3-2, $67 (+0.67u) this week. WOOOOOO!!! I did it! This is a ridiculous way to bet football games, but it seemed to work pretty well all year. The totals are so low that all you need are a couple of big plays at any point during the game. The bets are never dead until the clock hits zero. If I do this again next year, I'm going to keep this strategy in here.
Season Total: 30-25, $285 (+2.85)
1st Quarter Unders: 23-27, -$991 (-9.91u)
Georgia State 23 @ Marshall 29: 1Q under 9.5
1Q points 7, Won $95
Louisville 13 @ Kentucky 26: 1Q under 9.5
1Q points 7, Won $91
Pittsburgh 42 @ Miami 16: 1Q under 9.5
1Q points 14, Loss $100
Minnesota 23 @ Wisconsin 16: 1Q under 7.5
1Q points 10, Loss $100
Illinois 41 @ Northwestern 3: 1Q under 7.5
1Q points 7, Won $74
3-2, $60 (+0.6u) this week. At least I ended on a winning week, and I didn't go -$1000. I very much don't recommend this strategy. Each bet is like -250 and I didn't even win half of my picks.
Season Total: 26-29, -$931 (-9.31u)
Long Shot Parlays: 1-49, $2,426 (-24.26u)
Parlay 1 (ACC)
Wake Forest 31 @ Duke 34: Wake Forest ML -157
Pittsburgh 42 @ Miami 16: Pittsburgh -6.5
Louisville 13 @ Kentucky 26: Kentucky ML -159
South Carolina 31 @ Clemson 30: South Carolina +14.5
Georgia Tech 14 @ Georgia 37: Georgia Tech +36Loss $100 (so fucking close)
Parlay 2 (Big 10)
Nebraska 24 @ Iowa 17: Under 39.5
Michigan State 16 @ Penn State 35: Michigan State +19
Purdue 30 @ Indiana 16: Indiana +10.5
Minnesota 23 @ Wisconsin 16: Wisconsin ML -165
Michigan 45 @ Ohio State 23: Ohio State -9Loss $100 (so not close)
Parlay 3 (Big 12)
Kansas 27 @ Kansas State 47: Kansas State -11.5
Oklahoma 48 @ Texas Tech 51: Oklahoma -2
West Virginia 24 @ Oklahoma State 19: Under 62.5
West Virginia 24 @ Oklahoma State 19: West Virginia +8.5
Iowa State 14 @ TCU 62: Iowa State +10Loss $100
Parlay 4 (SEC)
Tennessee 56 @ Vanderbilt 0: Over 64.5
Arkansas 27 @ Missouri 29: Under 55.5
Florida 38 @ Florida State 35: Florida +9.5
Auburn 27 @ Alabama 49: Auburn +22
LSU 23 @ Texas A&M 38: Texas A&M +10Loss $100
Parlay 5 (PAC-12)
Notre Dame 27 @ USC 38: Under 64
Notre Dame 27 @ USC 38: Notre Dame +155
Washington 51 @ Washington State 33: Over 60
Washington @ Washington State: Washington ML -125
Oregon 34 @ Oregon State 38: Oregon ML -150Loss $100
0-5, -$500 (-5.0u) this week. What a shame. Statistically I should have hit more than 1 of those all year right? I got close a lot I guess. One thing I can promise you is that I will never stop betting long shot parlays
Season Total: 0-54, -$2,926 (-29.26u)
Final Season Standings
Low Team Total Overs: 30-25, $285 (+2.85)
Giant Money Line Favorites: 45-10, -$183 (-1.83u)
Move The Line Overs: 39-14-1, -$222 (-2.22u)
1st Quarter Unders: 26-29, -$931 (-9.31u)
Long Shot Parlays: 0-54, -$2,926 (-29.26u)
Welp, that was a fun experiment. Next year if I do this I want to do it with reasonable sized units so I can actually bet everything and feel like I have some real skin in the game. Even if it's just $5 per bet.
Thanks to everyone who followed along all season while I entertained myself with these picks. The Bowl Season Special will be coming out after the bowl games have been decided.
Love you,
John Rich