Mike Tomlin Has Never Had A Losing Season: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 18
Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every week during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (we taped on Monday this week so they could be a bit off but that's what we go by for records purposes). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week.
YTD: 40-38-3
Tennessee Titans (7-9, 8-6-2 ATS) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8, 8-7-1 ATS)
8:15 PM on ABC
JAX -6.5
T 40
Stakes: Winner wins the AFC South. Loser is eliminated
The Titans offense just absolutely stinks without Ryan Tannehill. Derrick Henry returns to the backfield this week, but Joshua Dobbs will be starting under center. And the under has hit in the Titans last 9 games without Ryan Tannehill as their QB, with an average of just 30 TOTAL points in those games. And none of them have had more than this total of 40 points scored
The Stats Say: Under
Cleveland Browns (7-9, 8-8 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8, 9-6-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
PIT -2.5
T 40
Stakes: Steelers make playoffs with win and losses by Patriots and Dolphins
As we know, Mike Tomlin has never finished a season with a losing record. Will this be the first time? The stats say probably not. When Mike Tomlin is coaching a team with a .500 or worse record, he is 47-29-1 ATS.
The Stats Say: Steelers
Los Angeles Rams (5-11, 6-9-1 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-8, 7-9 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
SEA -6.5
T 41.5
Stakes: Seahawks make playoffs with a win and Packers loss
The under is 7-1 in the Rams last 8 road games. And the under is 5-2 in the last 7 matchups between these teams. Divisional outdoor unders are usually a good bet and this is no exception.
The Stats Say: Under
New York Giants (9-6-1, 12-4 ATS) @ Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, 8-8 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
PHI -14
T 43
Stakes: Giants locked in at #6 seed. Eagles clinch #1 seed with win, can drop to #5 seed with loss
This is one outdoor divisional under I don't like. Assuming Jalen Hurts play as he's expected, the over is 10-1 in the Eagles last 11 home games with Hurts starting, averaging a total of 52 PPG. Well over the total here.
The Stats Say: Over
Detroit Lions (8-8, 11-5 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (8-8, 8-8 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
GB -4.5
T 49
Stakes: Packers make playoffs with win. Lions make playoffs with win and Seahawks loss
-In regular season December and January games under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are an absurd 18-1 SU, 12-7 ATS. They are just a different team late in the season. And I'm not betting against Aaron Rodgers in a do or die game against Detroit. The home team has also covered 6 straight in this matchup.
The Stats Say: Packers
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.