"We've Never Had Somebody Grade Low And Play Well" - The S2 Cognition Test Could Tank CJ Stroud's Draft Stock
For those who haven't heard about this S2 cognition test, it's been making headlines lately because of how well Alabama quarterback Bryce Young scored on it. We all knew the Heisman Trophy winner's on-field processing was elite already. This test is designed to confirm that. It essentially measures a player's ability to make split-second decisions.
This is from Go Long's Bob McGinn, who originally reported on the leaked test scores — and how dismaying the outlook is for Ohio State's CJ Stroud as a result:
"The S2 people will say, ‘Hey, guys that graded high on this test don’t always play well,' one club executive said, 'But, we’ve never had somebody grade low and play well.'
"[...] According to S2, the 30-to-45 minute exercise is conducted on what The Athletic's Matt Barrows in February described as a 'specially designed gaming laptop and response pad that can record reactions in two milliseconds.' It measures how players process and make split-second decisions. 'Anticipating, reading, reacting and adapting to the game are measurable skills,' the website offers.
According to McGinn's piece, anything at 80% or higher is considered "good". So even though Anthony Richardson is by far the least-experienced starter of the top-flight QB prospects, he's right on that line. Tough day for the lazy box score scouts who think he's a one-read-and-run, backyard football quarterback.
Notably, Fresno State's Jake Haener is ahead of Kentucky academic star Will Levis, mere percentage points behind Young.
I don't mean to bury the lede on Stroud here...it's just that, I'm assuming the Barrows S2 report McGinn cites is this one about Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy. The San Francisco 49ers breakout star scored in the mid 90s. We saw how excellent Purdy played as a seventh-round rookie.
That information dropped less than three weeks after I wrote this blog.
OK so CJ Stroud.
The guy who is the consensus "most polished passer". Whose ceiling (best projected outcome) I've said is "a rich man's Dak Prescott." Depending how you interpret that, perhaps Stroud becomes somewhere in the neighborhood of the seventh-best QB in the NFL if he reaches his full potential? Pretty damn good!
But if this S2 is as good at projecting a dude's transition to the professional level as it claims to be, we've officially found a smoking gun/red flag that suggests Stroud will be the latest Ohio State signal-caller to bust.
Back to the Go Long article. Look at the reaction to Stroud's score. Instead of annoyingly breaking up the text, these quotes come from the following unnamed sources in order: an NFL executive, a scout and then another executive:
"Stroud scored 18. That is like red alert, red alert, you can't take a guy like that. That is why I have Stroud as a bust. That in conjunction with the fact, name one Ohio State quarterback that's ever done it in the league.
"[…] That was my concern with him…His personality is just sort of calm and mellow and laidback, and that's the way he plays. You look at how Bryce Young plays and how Stroud plays, I don't see how anyone can look at those two play football and you'd want that guy (Stroud) over Young. Bryce's mind is so quick and he processes so fast. Whereas with Stroud, everything is much, much more programmed.
"[…] The benchmark is 80. Eighty and above is good. Stroud was 18. It’s incredibly terrible. He’s going to be off (some team’s) boards. He will not be picked by those teams."
You can't deny that Stroud has excellent throwing mechanics, accuracy to all areas of the field, and sneaky athleticism. I don't recall seeing any of his Buckeye teammates giving him lukewarm endorsements to the general public. There was that report about Stroud allegedly skipping out on the Manning Passing Academy, leading to a Twitter bub-off between OG source Brady Quinn and Stroud defender Ryan Clark:
…Not gonna touch that one. There's enough plausible deniability from Stroud's end to write that off. What we have here with this S2 test is hard, quantifiable evidence that suggests Stroud can't hack it in the NFL.
I'm inclined not to believe that one bad test score seals the dude's fate. On the other hand, you can't help but doubt Stroud to some degree. This isn't one of those trivial "character concern" leaks from one person or team that could be construed as a conspiracy to cool Stroud's market so he falls to said source's team. it's a little more disconcerting than that.
Plus, Stroud played with no fewer than four future first-round draft picks at wide receiver. His tackles from 2022 were Paris Johnson Jr. and Dawand Jones. Johnson is likely to hear his name called on Day 1 of the draft. Jones has an outside chance. Even Stroud's center Luke Wypler is in excellent position to be selected in the second or third round.
When you watch Stroud's film, it looks like he has a grasp of route concepts, flashes anticipatory throws at times, and at least appears to make full-field reads from time to time.
What you wonder about in light of these S2 tests is this: Is Stroud actually looking off those safeties or truly manipulating the defense with his eyes on some of these plays? Or is he just using a predetermined look-off and ripping it all over the yard because he knows his receivers are so talented that they'll be open on most plays no matter what?
If you think I'm fishing here, I got that "predetermined look-off" terminology from Tony Romo, who inferred that Russell Wilson did precisely that on a horrible interception last season. Wilson's ex-teammate, future Hall of Fame linebacker Bobby Wagner, jumped in front of Russ' throw before he knew what hit him.
Just food for thought. You tell me. Stroud very well could issue a simple rebuttal by saying, "Watch the Georgia game." Because he was phenomenal in that one. No one can really argue otherwise. Was his off-schedule playmaking ability in that masterful performance an outlier, or a sign his second-reaction instincts have progressed beyond plays like, say, this one:
I have Stroud as my QB3 and eighth on my top-100 big board. If I had to adjust today, I don't know if I'd have enough conviction to drop him down a bunch of slots based on this one S2 test. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't more concerned about him than I was before, though. To be such an outlier in a negative way on anything in the pre-draft process can be a major detriment your draft stock.
We'll know for sure in about a week whether this impacts where Stroud lands. I still maintain all the Will Levis hype is a smokescreen and Stroud will go no lower than the Indianapolis Colts at No. 4 overall.
Twitter @MattFitz_gerald/TikTok