These Cards Are Going To Provide A Winning Hand

Brian Fluharty. Getty Images.

Win Total Wednesday is back and this time I'm headed to the ACC which has a reputation for teams sneaking up out of nowhere to make a run at a title … see Pitt a few years back (who actually took home the crown), Wake Forest, and Virginia in recent memory. It seems as if there's always a few teams who outperform their predictions and I think this year it's going to be The Louisville Cardinals. 

I always love to start with the schedule, and no one has a better draw in the ACC than Louisville. The way most experts lay out the ACC, it's Clemson, FSU, Pitt and UNC as the top 4. Louisville only plays Pitt in that group. Most experts have Virginia, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Boston College as the bottom 4 in the ACC. Louisville plays all 4 of those teams. 

The way I break down the schedule, there's 7 wins in which the Cards should be significant favorites and 4 of them are to start the season. Georgia Tech (neutral site), Murray St, Indiana (neutral site) and Boston College should all be wins. Another three game stretch of Duke, VT, and Virginia (all at home) from late October into November should have the Cards at 7 wins. 

It's a handful of toss up games, where you will only need 2 to cash a ticket. @ NC State, ND, @ Pitt, @ Miami and Kentucky. I have a really strong feeling The Cards  not only get those 3 wins, but could play spoiler to ND's national title hopes when the Irish come to town on October 7th. 

This is a Cards team that will have Jeff Brohm at the helm who reunites with QB Jack Plummer (Cal transfer orginally from Purdue). Plummer threw for 3000+ last year and 21 TD. The run game is super reliable with Jawhar Jordan (800+ yards) and Maurice Turner as a second option. The WR's are a question mark but are loaded with talent. Big payoffs can be collected on transfers from Georgia St (Jamari Thrash), and Kevin Coleman (Jackson St). 

The defense returns 7 starters and was a unit that ranked 1st in the ACC in PPG allowed, 5th in rush (134 yards allowed), 3rd against the pass (197 yards allowed) and 5th total in yards allowed just 331 per game. Brohm will be switching systems, but I expect Louisville's talent to perform to the high level it did last year. 

The ACC removed divisions, and as I mentioned it feels like there's always a shocker in the ACC. The way I see it, you should be taking a flyer on Louisville at +1000 to bring home an ACC Title. Yes Clemson is legit, and yes FSU and UNC and even Miami have big hopes but none of them have consistently lived up to their hype. Why couldn't The Cards sneak up and be the second best team in this conference ? I'm willing to say they are. 

Back next week with another Win Total.