My Super Bowl Picks Include One Favorite And One Long Shot I'm Riding This Year

Jamie Squire. Getty Images.

The end of the summer gets less and less painful as you get older. At 9-12 years old not being in school was legitimately a dream. No rules, long nights, pools, beaches, basketball camps, wiffleball, bike riding etc. Free reign on the world. Absolutely zero responsibilities. 

It was sweet in high school and college for the same reasons but at that point you were going out year round so it wasn't as painful. Then when you enter the workforce, your only real grasp of summer is early twenties when you are poor and broke and live for the 2-3 days of weekends down the shore or the Hamptons or a summer house. After that, summer is non existent. Just another 3 months as an adult. Maybe if you're a scumbag you can sneak away a week in LBI or Aruba .. or both … for vacation but that's really it. 

Also football coming back means way more as an adult than a child. I watched the NFL on Sundays as a kid, but if given the opportunity to play video games or go outside I quickly passed it up. Also playing sports, especially once basketball started in October … I was in the gym instead of on the couch. Now … it's the only hobby I got. Watch football til your eyes bleeds. 

Anyway … with the NFL kickoff around the corner, it's time to take a stab at two futures.

The first one is the most boring and chalk pick on the planet. But just hear me out. 

Kansas City Chiefs +550 

Unless you live under a rock, you realize this is Patrick Mahomes league until someone beats him and then goes on to win a Super Bowl. Brady did it, he's gone. Burrow did it once but couldn't lock up the ring. Mahomes has been AT WORST in the AFC Title game. With multiple Super Bowls under his belt, Mahomes and the Chiefs will hardly ever get a + sign in front of them. I know it's a season long bet, but I will take my chances on a team that will almost certainly make the playoffs, almost certainly have a bye, and likely have home field throughout … that in any game EVER they will never have a +550, hell they may not even have a + sign in front of them all season. 

I rationalize this as I have The Chiefs +550 on the money line vs the rest of the league. You have to advance one by one to keep the ticket alive, but +550 is better than any price you will ever find betting the game straight up, in fact if you bet the game straight up you would be laying money with the Chiefs. I'll put my money in now and let it sit for the biggest payout possible. 

New Orleans Saints +4000

I wanted a long shot here and I wanted to go to the NFC. As I said it's Mahomes league, and I didn't want to have an AFC team knowing the gauntlet in that conference. Instead I'll go to the NFC which has far less elite teams. I decided the best way to look at a long shot is a team who is going to win their division and get a home game in the playoffs. I like The Saints for those reasons. Weak division and should take care of business vs the lowly Bucs (my sneaky pick to have the worst record in the league just so I can laugh at Cheah), the rebuilding Panthers, and shoot themselves in the foot Falcons. 

I love Derek Carr in a new setting. Kamara will be back end of September, and Michael Thomas and Chris Olave are formidable options at wideout. The defense was elite against the pass (#2 overall) , elite overall in PPG (9th), and yards a game (5th). They need to improve against the run (24th) to really be a complete package but I like the foundation. Not an overly difficult schedule and I don't think anyone is talking about them. They remind me of the Vikings last year. Just need them in the playoff picture to start getting excited and I really am confident they will be there.