The 49ers Have Become The Most Dominant Home Team in Football: NFL Week 5 Stats And Trends
Welcome back to the Stats lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday afternoon).
The stats finally got on the right track last week with a 4-1 record, bringing me closer to .500 with a 9-11 record on the year.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2, 2-2 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (3-1, 3-1 ATS)
9:30 AM on NFL Network (London)
BUF -5.5
T 48.5
Offense does not always travel to London. In the last 16 games across the pond, only 4 have had more than 48 points scored. The under is 10-6 with an average of just 40 PPG. These offenses might get the headlines, but both defenses are pretty solid and can stop this from being a shootout.
The Stats Say: Under
Baltimore Ravens (3-1, 3-1 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2, 2-2 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
BAL -4
T 38.5
This one's pretty simple. When these two teams play, just take the points. The underdog is 24-7-3 ATS in the last 34 matchups between these two teams. And we all know about Mike Tomlin as an underdog by now. He's 17-5-3 ATS as a home dog and 53-28 ATS overall as an underdog overall.
The Stats Say: Steelers
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0, 2-1-1 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-2, 3-0-1 ATS)
4:05 PM on FOX
PHI -4.5
T 50.5
Cooper Kupp is likely back which is great news for the Rams. They were my preseason dark horse team and they've looked solid so far being 2-2 without Kupp. And the trends back them up here too. The Rams have covered 6 of their last 7 as a home dog. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts is not as dominant on the road. He's just 5-9 ATS as a road favorite.
The Stats Say: Rams
Kansas City Chiefs (3-1, 2-2 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-3, 1-2-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
KC -4
T 52.5
Everything suggests we're heading for a shootout in this one. Since 2019, no team has hit more road overs than the Kansas City Chiefs (20-15). And also since 2019, no team has hit home overs than…… the Minnesota Vikings (23-12-1). Seems like a good combination for points.
The Stats Say: Over
Dallas Cowboys (3-1, 3-1 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-0, 3-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
SF -3.5
T 45
You won't get rich betting against the 49ers at home. They've covered nine straight home games, 15 of the last 17 home games, and they’ve won 12 of those by at least 15 points. Dallas is very good too and may keep it close, but this line feels like it should be more than 3.5 points.
The Stats Say: 49ers
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.