The NFL Assigned Referee Shawn Smith to the Chiefs-Ravens Game, Who Just So Happens To Give Road Teams a MASSIVE Advantage Every Time He's on the Field

I said on today's episode of Macrodosing that I was considering placing one of the largest wagers of my life on the Chiefs this weekend not only because I believe in Patrick Mahomes & Co. to advance to another Super Bowl, but also because if the game is close down the stretch, the NFL is going to do everything in its power to make sure Taylor Swift is involved in The Big Game. They've gotten this far, they can't lose the Swifties now.

And wouldn't you know it, the referee assigned to the AFC Championship Game just so happens to be Shawn Smith, a ref who has some staggering statistics favoring road teams over the course of the last several seasons.

Sharp Football Analysis — Home teams have won only 40.8% of games in the last three years with Smith as referee.

That is the lowest win rate for any referee in the NFL.

Across the NFL, home teams have won 55.4% of games during that span. With Smith, the rate precipitously drops down to 40.8%.

Maybe the road teams are just that much better in the games he is assigned to call. I hoped that was the case, but then I looked at the great equalizer: the point spread.

The point spread takes into account which team is better.

Across the NFL in the last three seasons, home teams have covered 49.4% of spreads.

That means that even if home teams were winning only 40.8% of games under Smith, we hopefully would find they are still covering close to 50%.

That wasn’t close to being the case.

Under Smith, home teams are only 17-29-3 against the spread (37.0%) in the last three years.

This is the second-lowest mark among 19 referees.

Even if you expand beyond the last three seasons to when Smith began as head referee in 2018, road teams have the NFL’s best win percentage with Smith.

He ranks #1 out of 24 referees in road team win percentage since 2018.

Ravens fans, I'm so sorry. Y'all don't deserve this, but you could see it coming from a mile away. The Swifties have taken over the sport and the League is determined to get all of them a ring.

If Baltimore finds a way to win this game, it will be the biggest upset by a team that's actually favored in the history of sports. I have no choice but to hammer the Chiefs, though. The stars are aligning.

I don't know about you, but I'm feeling 22-17 Kansas City.