2024 NCAA Tournament Region (West) Breakdown, Preview And Picks - The Biggest Conspiracy Theory From The Selection Committee Won't Come True
I do this every year and we roll on in 2024. I'll be looking at each region over the next couple of days as the NCAA Tournament gets ready to tip. Not the First Four, the real Tournament. We'll look at matchups, previews, picks, players to watch and what team could be a sleeper to come out of each region.
West Region
Storyline
1. The Tommy Lloyd Dilemma - I think Tommy Lloyd is a fucking awesome coach. He has Arizona rolling …. except in March. They are coming off a loss to No. 15 Princeton a year ago. Here we go again where they are a 2 seed drawing Long Beach State (with Dan Monson, who was fired but still coaching). You have the Final Four in Arizona. For the longest time this season Arizona was talked about as one of those 4 teams with 3 of the No. 1s right now. They didn't win the Pac-12 Tournament. They have some weird losses this year. Tommy Lloyd needs a run here soon. Can't be the great regular season coach and can't win in March. This team should make a run.
2. Alabama can't play defense - Pretty simple here. Alabama is so fucking awful on defense and that might be a compliment. You know how I just mentioned the Tommy Lloyd dilemma? Nate Oats hasn't made it past the Sweet 16 - including as a 1 seed - and is talked about as a great coach right now. Pretty sure you gotta make a run past that at some point, even at Alabama, if you're being talked among the greats. Could they outscore everyone? Of course. But how the hell do you trust this team watching them play defense?
3. Don't tell me Tom Izzo is going to do it again - I can't believe Michigan State is a 9 seed, but here we are. Last year Izzo made the Sweet 16 as a 7 seed. I refuse to do the January, February, Izzo bullshit with one title. That can't be the way it is when there are other coaches who have had better March's. They get a gross matchup in round 1, seriously that game sucks, but then, uh? He could? I can't handle another run from Izzo with a team who sucks.
4. The mid-majors - New Mexico is the team I love the most from all the non power schools. They won the MWC, which was a stolen bid somehow, mostly because the committee sucks. But they fly around. They have a bunch of guys who can score like House, Toppin, Mashburn, etc. They are the 90s team since it's Pitino's son, Eddie House's son and Jamal Mashburn's son. They are favored against Clemson as an 11 seed! 11 seeds who are favored at 10-1 straight up. That has to mean something.
5. Nate, Smitty, John Rich, Frankie Muniz and the newest member of GCU - That's right. We're plugging #DaveandBUSTERS. That's how you do it, folks. Nate extended me an invite on Twitter to join the team and I happily accepted. Weird you don't have to cry for good things to happen. Anyways, the No. 12 seed is a sexy pick. They can play the same tempo as St. Mary's that we know. They have some high-major transfers who can dominate, Grant-Foster is one. Then I mentioned the Alabama defense thing. Let's go Lopes.
Players to Watch
There are a couple ways to look at this, but I'm looking at this strictly as an intrigue factor. These are players that could be lottery picks in the NBA Draft, could put a team on their back or are just flat out good players. I'll try to avoid an obvious one like Zach Edey.
1. DaRon Holmes (Dayton) - The best non major power conference player in America most likely? Was an All-American, co A-10 Player of the Year. There were rumors last year that he would transfer to a big program or even just head to the NBA, but came back. Big man who dominates in the post, but also with Dayton's offense (they shoot the shit out of the ball) can step out and create from high post. It makes Dayton unique in that sense because it's not the traditional non-major program with dominant guards.
2. Josh Hubbard (Mississippi State) - The best non-Kentucky freshman in the SEC. He's not like Mississippi State because he can, well, he can score. It's as simple as that. Dude can shoot the ball, just take over a game. Shit, I saw him go toe-to-toe with Reed Sheppard in a game a month ago. He's a sneaky pick for how the hell is Mississippi State playing in the second weekend.
3. Ja'Kobe Walter (Baylor) - He should be a lottery pick. Baylor is a team I can't figure out. I love them, but I don't trust them. Welcome to college basketball. He's actually one of two 1st round picks with Yves Missi there. But Walter is exactly what you want. Versatile wing, can shoot it good enough, can attack. I'm curious if he breaks out in a true national level this NCAA Tournament. Won't happen against Colgate, but will happen if Baylor is in the second weekend.
4. Pelle Larson (Arizona) - We know Caleb Love, shit you probably know Oumar Ballo for how long he's been there. But Larson is the guy who gets Arizona and Tommy Lloyd to where they need to be. Again, the trend here is versatile guys. Arizona has roughly 18 7-footers on roster. They have the chucker in Love and second chucker in Boswell. Larson keeps that team together.
5. Grant Nelson (Alabama) - Mark Sears was the All-American, but Nelson was the big time transfer who everyone thought would push Alabama over the hump. He's the small ball big man that Nate Oats loves on offense. Still can't play defense, but as I said, Alabama can just outscore everyone. After Sears, Nelson might be the 2nd option for that to happen.
Honorable mentions: Jarod Lucas (Nevada), PJ Hall (Clemson), Tyson Walker (Michigan State), Elliott Cadeau (UNC)
My Favorite Bet to Make the Final Four (odds from DraftKings) - Baylor +650
I can't shake them. I just can't. I think Arizona gets out of it, but I also would rather have +650 than 2/1 odds. We saw mayhem in the bottom left bracket last year too. That was FAU vs Kansas State for the Final Four. You're telling me a 3 seed from the Big 12 can't do it again? They have the NBA talent. Drew won a title before. RayJ Dennis is a good enough college point guard. I'm scared of their defense, but I can't shake them. Give me them for +650.
Matchup you most want to see: Caleb Love vs RJ Davis
Pretty simple here. The conspiracy theory was this was the 1 vs 2 so we could have former teammates in the Elite Eight.
First round gut play:
We're going to take Grand Canyon +5.5. #DaveandBUSTERS baby! We're back. That said I immediately fired on New Mexico ML when it opened on Sunday night when they line was still under 2. It's now up to 2 and history says to take New Mexico ML. 10-1 has to mean something.