Welcome To Game 3, Where It's Now Must Win Territory For The Lakers, Sixers And Magic
The last time we had the Magic, Sixers, and Lakers all playing on the same night was ahead of Game 2, where I blogged about how important it was that all three of those teams (0-1) found a way to win Game 2 based on what NBA history tells us.
Unfortunately for all three, none of them did it. And while the Sixers/Knicks game had its fair share of controversy, at the end of the day it's not like the NBA was going to change the result. Now everyone returns to the comforts of their own building with hopes that a change in scenery will bring a change in result.
The difference of course, is what's at stake. While there have been a handful of instances where teams fall down 0-2 and then have gone on to win the series, that pretty much depends on that team winning Game 3. If you don't, your season is over. That's not hyperbole either, that's simply the reality of the situation.
Last year the Celts were on the brink of making history as they forced a Game 7 after falling down 0-3, but a Tatum ankle injury and overall dogshit play ended that dream.
151-0 all time and 52-0 in the first round, I think it's fair to assume that should any of the Lakers, Sixers, or Magic fall down 0-3, we will not see any of those teams make NBA history. So while Embiid is guaranteeing the Sixers will win the series against the Knicks
the only way that's possible is by winning tonight. The good news is their whistle should be GENERATIONAL after what happened in Game 2, but even a split and taking a 1-3 series back to MSG isn't going to cut it. If you're curious, teams with a 3-1 lead are 268-13 (95.4%) all time and 78-3 in the first round (96.3%). For teams like LAL/PHI who had dreams of deep playoff runs and a potential title, they are in must-win territory for these next two games which is what makes the drama so incredible.
The Lakers challenge is certainly tougher given the fact they've lost 10 straight against the Nuggets, and while the Magic are a completely different team at home, their entire playoff experience is mostly house money. With such a young team and a flawed roster in terms of offensive production, this blog is really more about the Lakers and Sixers, two teams that had legitimate playoff expectations.
There is truth to the idea that a series doesn't truly start until someone loses at home, and that all the Nuggets, Cavs and Knicks did was protect their home floor. If you're a fan of those teams and you need some positive vibes, the good news is recent NBA history has plenty of examples for you to grasp onto.
For example, the 2023 Warriors were down 0-2 after dropping both road games to the Kings. They then returned home, won both, then used that momentum to take Game 5 in SAC, ultimately winning that series in 7.
The 2022 Mavs were down 0-2 after dropping both road games to the Suns. They then returned home, won both, and ended up winning that series in 7.
The 2021 Bucks were down 0-2 after dropping both road games to the Suns in the Finals. They returned home, won both, and then used that momentum to win 4 straight and the title in 6. They were also down 0-2 to the Nets, returned home and won both, then won that series in 7.
The 2021 Clippers were down 0-2 after dropping both road games against the Jazz. They returned home, won both, and used that momentum to win 4 straight and the series in 6.
The 2019 Raptors were down 0-2 after dropping both road games to the Bucks. They then returned home, won both, and used that momentum to win 4 straight and the series in 6.
The 2018 Cavs were down 0-2 after dropping both road games to the Celtics. They returned home, won both, and ended up winning the series in 7.
The 2016 Cavs were down 0-2 after dropping both road games to the Warriors. They returned home, split, and then won 3 in a row to win the series in 7
As you can see, should these teams find a way to win tonight, it's entirely possible we see at least one of them find a way to repeat what we've seen pretty much every playoff run since 2016. To do it, you tend to need an MVP/generational player, which is what 2 of these teams down 0-2 have.
So no, these series are not over just because someone may be down 0-2. It's not ideal, it will require some pretty dominant basketball to recover from, but it is possible.
You lose tonight though, all that goes out the window. Your season is effectively over and you have a pretty embarrassing first round loss on your resume (excluding ORL).
That's what's at stake tonight, and I can't wait to see how it shakes out.