I'm Worried the Matthew Judon Trade Means Bigger Problems in Foxboro Than Just Losing Their Best Player

Last night from backstage at a comedy venue in New Hampshire (big thanks to a fantastic Hampton Beach Comedy Festival crowd) that I'd have more thoughts on the Matthew Judon trade:

And as they say in radio, now that we're back from the break, it's time to pay off the tease. 

Why we're going into the new season with a gaping hole on the Front-7 is a mystery. And there's no other way to spin it when you're now without your most productive defender for the last three years. An every-down player who can rush the passer, set an edge against outside runs, and occasionally drop into curl/flat coverage when called upon. For what it's worth, in his last full season in 2022, he had the highest coverage grade on the team according to Pro Football Focus, with 78.7. But without question his 17 sacks and 69 total pressures were worth a lot. 

In the light most favorable to the team, Judon does turn 32 today. (Happy Birthday, indeed.) As I've pointed out before, that tends to be the unMagic Number for a lot of pass rushers. JJ Watt retired at 32. Aaron Donald at 33. Markus Golden just retired, and he was 32 in his final season. Shaq Barrett too, and he doesn't blow out the 32 candles until November. So you can understand a team reaching the conclusion that it's a bad investment to lock up a pass rusher Judon's age for anything beyond this season. 

Besides, the return they got wasn't bad, all things considered. The Pats found themselves in a position where they were dealing from weakness. They had to sign the player or move him. There was no third option. You can't keep a popular, influential team leader around who feels like he's underpaid, or he'll become the turd in the punchbowl. So it was a buyer's market for Judon. And I thought I was hoping for too much when I suggested even the possibility of a 3rd:

Assuming Atlanta isn't vastly improved year-to-year and they end up selecting in the same place, that pick will be in the mid-70s. Which isn't a bad haul for a guy you HAD to move. Especially given his age and contract status.

But my concerns go much deeper than just weakening the defense which is expected to be the one reliable strength of this team. And it's something that's been worrying me since the Krafts made the change from Bill Belichick to Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo. New personnel staff was brought in. As were new coaches. Other people were shuffled around. Some got new job titles or switched departments. It's the sort of thing you see any time there's a regime change. And more often than not, that leads to a certain level of almost inevitable dysfunction. And I can't help but think the way this Judon situation was (mis)handled, is an indication of that happening at One Patriots Place.

In theory, no one likes the idea of one person having absolute power. But in reality, a lot of despots get shit done. In his new podcast on Alexander the Great, Dan Carlin talks about how his father, Phillip II of Macedon, achieved hegemony over the democratic Greek city-states by conquering them while they were wasting time forming committees and debating what to do about him. And what makes Alexander's ascension the throne rare is that he got all that power when his father died, and turned out to be an even better conqueror. 

Because what usually happens when an all-powerful ruler is no longer around to make all the decisions, everyone who's been waiting for their chance to seize control goes to war with each other. What is Game of Thrones but that very dynamic? And George RR Martin based it on the War of the Roses, with Robert Baratheon as King Edward, and the Starks and Lannisters subbing in for the Yorks and Lancasters. 

My point is that the Judon situation would've been handled better under the old Philosopher King who used to rule this land. And I'm worried that the way it all unfolded speaks to a level of dysfunction in the Pats organization. One that's inevitable once you get competing factions finally getting their opportunity for advancement that was denied to them all this time. 

I say this not because I've got tons of insider information about what's going on. Really, all I've heard is a rumor or two. Some unverified reports from people claiming to know. But what I do have is knowledge about how humans operate, based on a lifetime of studying us and our nature. If the Patriots have made a totally smooth transition from having a benign despot in charge to a democracy with no drop off in how efficiently the affairs of state are conducted, then they've pulled off a feat rarer than the ancient Macedonians. And while I can't confirm or deny this either, I think Alexander would've been a big Matthew Judon guy and found a way to keep him happy for one more year.

All this said, I hope I'm wrong and that this was just all about a very good player's age and contract. But stay tuned.