Strange as This May Sound, the Patriots Have a Legitimate Shot to Beat Cincinnati. No, I'm Being Serious.

Nick Cammett. Getty Images.

I get there's a bold claim in that headline. One you could have easily dismissed as an emotionally damaged and intellectually challenged Patriots fan just whistling past the graveyard where all his hopes and dreams are buried. But I mean it:

As I've long since made clear, I'm semi-retired from the Patriots Optimism business. Or better yet, I'm taking a sabbatical. Expecting the best was my default setting for 20 years and it served me well. But I had to go back to my factory settings about 13 losses in 17 games ago. I'd simply followed too many false idols and needed to adjust how I see this little world of mine before I went (more) insane. 

I'm sure I said here already that when I'm asked how many wins I think the 2024 Pats are good for, I'm saying maybe a half dozen if things break right for them. But it's such an abstract argument at this point. We don't know who'll be on the offensive line or where they'll be lining up. The offensive coordinator hasn't called plays on a regular basis in 15 years. Practically the entire wide receiver room at the moment has less than three years of experience. So there's too much left to sort out to have the first clue what they're capable of. 

Not to mention the quarterback position. Which, one could reasonably say without fear of being accused of sensationalizing it, matters. All we can say about it is that the Patriots have gone from having the highest interception % in the league last year (3.8%) to a starter with the lowest rate among all quarterbacks in NFL history:

Which again, not to flirt with hyperbole here, ought to count for something. 

But there's one other thing we know about Jacoby Brissett. He has a history of playing well against Cincinnati. And the coaching staff has had success against them as well. That too ought to count for something:

Patriots.com - Most recently, Van Pelt and many of the Patriots offensive staffers were with the Cleveland Browns, an AFC North rival of the Bengals. During his run as the Browns OC, Van Pelt's offenses averaged 26.8 points with a 6-2 record vs. Cincinnati (5-1 vs. Burrow). Given the Bengals recent postseason success, you might've thought it would be the other way around.

 

Instead, Cleveland has been a thorn in the Bengals side, like the Dolphins to the dynasty-era Patriots. …

To add another layer, starting QB Jacoby Brissett beat the Bengals with the Browns in 2022. Brissett led the Browns to a 32-13 victory over Cincy, with the Pats QB1 throwing for 278 yards with two total touchdowns. 

I interject here to add some video to illustrate the point:

We continue:

In 2022, the Browns stunned the Bengals with an efficient offensive performance. In the box score, the big takeaway was that Cleveland ran the ball 44 times for 173 yards and three touchdowns. … 

Brissett went 8-for-10 for 160 yards and a touchdown when the Bengals played man coverage, averaging 17.6 yards per pass attempt vs. single-high structures.

 

Cleveland also hit three explosives off play-action, with Brissett tallying 77 yards on three completions for a whopping 25.7 yards per attempt. Those play-action schemes were day-one install concepts for Van Pelt in Foxborough, so expect to see them on Sunday.

And one more nugget:

Do you want one more trend that says the Patriots have a chance? The Bengals in the Burrow era are slow starters. Burrow is just 1-3 in season-openers, and the Bengals are 6-7-1 in September games since 2020. 

And to add something else, while Ja'Marr Chase may or may not have a new contract:

… he's been limited in practice due to these same negotiations. Making it reasonable to wonder if, even on the odd chance they do sign him, the Bengals or Chase believe he's game-ready. Especially as 7.5 point favorites against an opponent no one expects anything from. Giving the Top 10 defense DeMarcus Covington inherited one fewer major pain in its collective ass to worry about. 

I don't know how much faith we can put in a Jacoby Brissett start from two seasons ago. Even if the Browns were able to run the ball at will, Brissett play-actioned them to death, posting a passer rating of 133.7, and hitting Amari Cooper for 131 receiving yards and Donovan People-Jones for another 81. What we can hang our hopes on is the fact this staff has coached up this quarterback in this system to dominate this same defense in the not too distant past. As far as we know (and I'm using a ton of qualifiers in these uncertain times), the 2024 Patriots aren't likely to beat anyone through sheer athletic superiority. It's going to need to win matchup-specific games. And this one at Cincy might be one of them, staring us right in the face.

Weirder things have happened. That's the best I can manage right now.