Extensive Breakdown & Grading of Mostly Sports Indy 500 Club NFL Draft
Yesterday Mostly Sports held the inaugural 2024 Indy (Indie sp?) .500 Club Draft. The rules are simple. Each participant (Brandon Walker, Mark Titus, T.J. Hitchings, Connor Griffin, Ebo Knows) drafts 4 teams. New draft order was chosen at the beginning of each round via virtual horse race. At the end of the regular season, the person who's team's combined record comes closest to .500 wins. The winner of the league will receive 500 good things, whereas the loser receives 500 bad things (things TBD).
I did a full breakdown of each person's team, complete with draft grades, pick-by-pick synopsis, REAL Projected Records, Boom or Bust meter, record volatility rating, and relevant statistics.
NOTE: If you aren't caught up on Mostly Sports, do not expect this blog to make any sense at all
DISCLAIMER: Season win total O/U taken from Draft Kings.Sportsbook. REAL Projected Records + Boom or Bust meters are based on personal research
ROUND 1
DRAFT ORDER (via horses): Mark Titus, Brandon Walker, Connor Griffin, TJ Hitchings, Ebo Knows
MARK TITUS - Pick #1
CHICAGO BEARS
0.4 TPS (Ties Per Season)
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴🐴
Unclear if Titus is expecting a good, bad, or average performance out of the new-look Chicago Bears this season. Depending on the outcome, this pick may end up working out. GRADE C+
BRANDON WALKER - Pick #2
Indianapolis Colts
0.11 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴
Colts are one of 2 horse teams in the NFL, which is on brand for show. Historically, the Colts are one of the least volatile teams in professional sports, making them a smart pick for a.500-based fantasy league. GRADE A
CONNOR GRIFFIN - Pick #3
New England Patriots
0.16 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴
Connor the first this year to go with a classic high-low draft strategy. Will need to balance out the bad with the good. GRADE B-
T.J. HITCHINGS - Pick #4
LOS ANGELES RAMS
0.22 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴
.Rams are a team capable of going above or below .500 GRADE B
EBO KNOWS - Pick #5
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
0.08 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴
Barring a hurricane that decimates the city and either provides inspiration or kills their spirit entirely, I don't foresee anything noteworthy happening with the Saints this season. Should be a nice predictable team for Ebo to build around. GRADE A
ROUND 2
DRAFT ORDER (via horses): TJ Hitchings, Connor Griffin, Brandon Walker, Mark Titus, Ebo Knows
T.J. Hitchings - Pick #6
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
0.23 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴🐴
Much like the Rams, the Steelers record could play out multiple different ways. But taking a team with a potential QB controversy in round 2 is questionable. GRADE C-
CONNOR GRIFFIN - Pick #7
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
0.17 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴
If the 49ers have a down year, and finish with much less wins than the Patriots have losses, he could be in trouble GRADE C
BRANDON WALKER - Pick #8
ATLANTA FALCONS
0.10 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴
Brandon grabs two low-volatility teams with O/U's at .500. Can't argue with that strategy GRADE A
MARK TITUS - Pick #9
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
0.17 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴🐴
Titus' 1st overall pick makes more sense now that he's gone Chargers in 2nd round. High volatility at the top of your board leaves plenty of room for error, which can be crucial GRADE A
EBO KNOWS - Pick #10
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
0.02 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴🐴
Drafting both the Saints & Bucs out of the NFC West brings Ebo's 'minimum win/loss number' up to 4 games. You want that number as close to magic number 34 as possible GRADE B
ROUND 3
DRAFT ORDER (via horses): TJ Hitchings, Connor Griffin, Brandon Walker, Mark Titus, Ebo Knows
CONNOR GRIFFIN - Pick #11
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
0.18 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴
Chiefs aren't a bad pick, but he telegraphed his next move here. His whole draft could be sabotaged should the rest of the league want to go that route GRADE C+
BRANDON WALKER - Pick #12
CLEVELAND BROWNS
0.14 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴 🐴 🐴 🐴
Slight diversion from Brandon's low-volatility strategy, but as long as the Browns finish at or near .500 he should still be in fine shape GRADE B-
EBO KNOWS - Pick #13
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
0.17 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴 🐴
The wheels completely fall off for Ebo here. Even with a high win total pick in RD4, he's far too reliant on bad teams with low boom-potential to overachieve GRADE D
MARK TITUS - Pick #14
Baltimore Ravens
0.03 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴
Total Franchise Ties: 1
Safe, sensible pick. Gives Titus some wiggle room in RD4. GRADE B+
T.J. HITCHINGS - Pick #15
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
0.02 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴
Depending on what T.J. does in RD4 will tell us a lot about what he expects from the Seahawks this season. GRADE C
ROUND 4
DRAFT ORDER (via horses): TJ Hitchings, Ebo Knows, Mark Titus, Brandon Walker, Connor Griffin
T.J. HITCHINGS - Pick #16
CINCINNATI BENGALS
0.08 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴
I just can't tell what T.J. is expecting from this season. Have zero read on his draft. GRADE ?
EBO KNOWS - Pick #17
DENVER BRONCOS
0.15 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴🐴
Was certain Ebo would go with the Bills here. No clue what he's thinking GRADE F-
MARK TITUS - Pick #18
CAROLINA PANTHERS
0.03 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴
Perfect counter to the Ravens. Couldn't have been a more on brand pick for Mark's style of play. GRADE A+
BRANDON WALKER - Pick #19
TENNESSEE TITANS
0.09 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴
A bit of a confusing RD4 pick from Brandon. Would have expected a more average team, given the obvious trajectory of his draft. GRADE C-
CONNOR GRIFFIN - Pick #20
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
0.31 TPS
24-25 Record Volatility = 🐴🐴🐴
Barring a Jaden Daniels breakout rookie campaign, which is very much on the table, Connor rounds out his high-low draft nicely with a bottom tier team. GRADE B
TEAM GRADES
Mark Titus - Grade A
RD1, PK1. Chicago Bears
RD2, PK9. Los Angeles Chargers
RD3, PK14. Baltimore Ravens
RD4, PK18. Carolina Panthers
Team Record Volatility: 3.5 🐴's
Expected Ties: 2
REAL Projected Record: 34-34
I was skeptical early on, but it became apparent by RD3 that Mark Titus knew exactly what he was doing. He had a plan going in and executed it to perfection. Some might argue high record volatility is not what you want in a ..500 league, but when you consider the full scope of Mark's team, there's no denying he will be at the middle of the pack come end of season.
Brandon Walker - Grade B+
RD1, PK2. Indianapolis Colts
RD2, PK8. Atlanta Falcons
RD3, PK12. Cleveland Browns
RD4, PK19. Tennessee Titans
Expected Ties: 0.5
Team Record Volatility: 3 🐴's
REAL Projected Record: 33-35
After three straight down the middle picks, Brandon's Titans' pick left a bit to be desired. I would have liked to see another true middle in RD 4. Things could get a little dicey depending on how the season shakes out. But overall I expect Brandon to finish out with a mediocre record.
Connor Griffin - Grade B-
RD1, PK3. New England Patriots
RD2, PK7. San Francisco 49ers
RD3, PK11. Kansas City Chiefs
RD4, PK20. Carolina Panthers
Expected Ties: 0
Team Record Volatility: 2.5 🐴's
REAL Projected Record: 35-33
A high-low draft through and through. With two of the worst teams in the league on roster, it is good that Connor has two of the best teams as well. But there is no getting around the fact that he boxed himself in. Should one team have a surprise season, his draft could go to shit (unless one of his other teams has a surprise season as well).
T.J. Hitchings - Grade D+
RD1, PK4. Los Angeles Rams
RD2, PK6, Pittsburgh Steelers
RD3, PK15. Seattle Seahawks
RD4, PK16. Cincinnati Bengals
Expected Ties: 0
Team Record Volatility: 3.5 🐴's
REAL Projected Record: 36-32
Certainly the most confusing draft of the bunch. Part of me wonders if T.J. wasn't taking this 100% seriously. Whereas Mark Titus' has a high volatility team with a concrete plan, T.J.'s team is total chaos. Not that chaos team's haven't worked in .500 fantasy leagues before, but T.J.'s draft was a complete roll of the dice.
Ebo Knows - Grade F-
RD1, PK5. New Orleans Saints
RD2, PK10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RD3, PK13. Las Vegas Raiders
RD4, PK17. Denver Broncos
Expected Ties: 0
Team Record Volatility: 3 🐴's
REAL Projected Record: 29-39
It's almost as if once Ebo's "pick the entire NFC South" strategy was thwarted in RD3, Ebo forgot what teams he had picked entirely. I nearly fell off my chair when he went with the Denver Bronco's at PK17, when the Bill were sitting right there. I don't see a world where Ebo finishes anywhere near .500. I predict 500 bad things in Ebo's future.
Final Thoughts
Was very clear who came into this draft with a plan and who did not.
If it weren't for Connor's Mr. Irrelevant pick of the Washington Commanders, the entire NFC East would have been left off the table. Someone grabbing the entire NFC East would have guaranteed 12 wins/losses, which would have put someone 35% of the way to Magic Number 34.
Surprised the Bills were left off the table. A predictable 2 horse team like the Bills would have had plenty of strong pairings on the low end.
It is mathematically possible for every team to finish with an 8-9 or 9-8 record. It is also mathematically possible for every team to finish .500 (if every game ends in a tie)
- If every game ends in a tie, the tiebreaker to determine the playoffs would come down to which teams scored the most points in common games
I'm still just really confused on what Ebo was thinking