Fantasy Football Draft Revisited - How The Top 120 Drafted Players Have Helped Or Destroyed Your Team
Five weeks into the fantasy football season and we now have a pretty clear idea of who the draft day hits and busts are. And that's what the graph above shows you. Using my self-made wins above replacement model, players are listed in top-down order by ADP with a bar representing how much better a player has been than a replacement-level player at their position. The further to the right the bar goes (Kamara/Henry) the better. If you are wondering what it means when a bar goes to the left - then I'm sorry you drafted Puka Nacua.
Here are some takes from these top-60 in ADP that likely went in the first five rounds of your draft.
Real quick on McCaffrey. Anyone that drafted him #1 overall (raising my own hand here) knows how big of a bomb this was to your entire season. I'm still 3-2 somehow, but my team is held up by termite invested stilts because of this. WAR doesn't take into account draft position, so even though he's worth a straight up replacement that doesn't take into account your next pick was #25 overall. I have no idea how I'd train that into the model so it just is what it is. But I bet many of you aren't on pace for the projected 7-10 season that number would line you up for. Can't imagine how hard it would be to account for draft stock in the model but outside of the first few guys, I think it's very useful to look back and stack players across positions to see how they did.
And that's what we're doing here. Let's continue.
Saquon Barkley is the #1 player taken if your draft was today
Quick caveat with the graph. It's very misleading early on in the season when byes start. The only reason Barkley isn't still #1 in WAR like he was after Week 4 is because the WAR model inputs a replacement-level performance for any game missed - even byes. And when it's only Week 5, that means 20% of Barkley's performance is on par with guys like Tony Pollard, or Ricco Dowdle. Pretty much any Cowboys running back of past and present. Things will even out as everyone else enters their bye weeks.
After Barkley - I think it's probably Derrick Henry as the consensus #2 pick in a re-do draft. Even though Kamara has outplayed him overall. Kamara's top rank doesn't figure to last as the Saints seem to be deflating from their hot start. And with a 44-point outlier week boosting up his rank - I think he's a solid sell high candidate if you're able to spare him. Lots of needy teams out there need running backs so if you're not one of them you could cash in for a kings ransom.
Patrick Mahomes - the... replacement-level quarterback???
You might not like it, but this what average fantasy performance looks like. You'd think the Chiefs going 5-0 would mean your fantasy team would benefit as well. Not so much. And while his -.02 WAR is better than Jalen Hurts, remember that bye week is to blame for anyone on the Eagles.
The other thing that stands out is the tight end waste land. I was a huge believer in Dalton Kincaid this offseason. Everything seemed to point to his direction. No big name wide out to suck target share. A great quarterback on a great offense. A pass happy play caller. Everything is there. Except it isn't. Maybe the problem is he's too good? Arizona put three to four guys on him in Week 1. I went to the game in Baltimore and noticed a lot of bracket zone coverage on him from the linebackers. Seems like he's the number one "don't let him beat us" guy on defenses bulletin boards. I think I still believe in him though. You know why? Because everyone else at tight end absolutely sucks. Anyone you'd have any chance to get anyway.
Let's check out the next 60 players by preseason ADP.
Speaking of bad tight ends.
Evan Engram - the guy that everyone (me) circled as the draft "value" who no one wanted even though he had such good production in 2023. Touchdowns were low, but that's often chalked up to chance. Well - maybe not for Engram though. He's never really been a touchdown guy. And dude dropped a 1.5 point dud on you in Week 1, got hurt, and hasn't been seen since. The biggest dud of them all coincidentally at the biggest dud of a position of them all. Ouch. Not for him. For you.
Zamir White - I'll toot my horn on this one. I have no idea who thought this guy was actually good. -1.08 wins means he is responsible for an entire loss across a fantasy season. That's tough to do when you consider guys that are hurt and don't play get you an entire win more on average. Never even on my draft radar. He scored 4, 6, 3, 3 in Weeks 1-4. He's awful. Terrible. Bad. At least he's injured now so you can improve your lineup with a piece of scrap off the waiver wire.
Kyle Pitts - I still have no clue what to think of him. But it still feels like Russian roulette every time you load him up as your starter. He's in a race with Mark Andrews for Troll of the Year.
Caleb Williams - For as pathetic of a start as the Bears offense has had, Williams has made progress in pretty much every game. He's given about the same level of production as dad bod Mahomes, but might just be on the ascent. I really loved him and Jayden Daniels as an alternative for Josh Allen (who I also loved but no need to mention that this week) and we are finally starting to see him put things together. Sure, they played Carolina in Week 4, but that game was over by halftime and Williams is getting fluid in audibles at the line of scrimmage, looking off safeties, and all the other little things that only the elites master.
Jameson Williams - Damn. that Week Three dud (1.2 points) really tanked his WAR. I expect him to creep back up but this is going to happen occasionally when your the team's #2 option.
I'll leave it there for now. Hope this was at least a little therapeutic. Give the list another look. What regrets do you have? Any successes? Anyone draft middle-late Round 1 and go Chase/Kyren or even better - Henry? Or are you just dead inside? Maybe you had the 1.1 and your drafter corners looked like (CMC) - (Mahomes/LaPorta) - (Mixon/DeVonta Smith) - (Ridley/Dell).
If so, cheer up. Long season ahead and plenty of more time to get beat into the ground more.