Mike Tomlin LOVES Being A Home Underdog: NFL Week 7 Stats And Trends
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning). I wasn't on the show this week because I was in New York for the Yankees streams but these are the stats I sent over from my research. So here's how this will go. If they have a winning record, I will count them towards my record. If they have a losing record, I will not. Fair is fair!
LW: 4-1
YTD: 18-13
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
1 PM on CBS
GB -3
T 47.5
The Packers offense has been HOT recently. They are averaging 30 PPG in Jordan Love’s last 9 starts. And the Texans defense, while good, is vulnerable on the road. They are giving up 29 PPG over their last away 4 games. The Packer team total is just 25.
The Stats Say: Packers team total over 25
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
1 PM on FOX
ATL -3
T 51
This game is expected to be a shootout with the high total of 51 points and the stats back that up. Kirk Cousins might not be a primetime QB, but he is an afternoon QB. The over is 17-6-1 in Kirk Cousins 1 PM home games since 2019.
The Stats Say: Over
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
1 PM on FOX
MIN -2
T 50
The Lions just love covering football games. But they love it even more when they're getting points. The Lions have covered 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog, and they’ve covered 8 straight as an underdog against the NFC North. I think Minnesota's undefeated season comes to an end here.
The Stats Say: Lions
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
4:25 PM on FOX
SF -1.5
T 47
Betting on or against Patrick Mahomes is pretty simple. When he's a big favorite, fade him. When he's a small favorite or getting points, take him. Mahomes 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.
The Stats Say: Chiefs
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
8:20 PM on NBC
NYJ -1.5
T 38
I don't care that the Jets have Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, and now Davante Adams. I don't care the Steelers are turning to the potentially washed Russell Wilson at QB after Fields has them at 4-2. I just like betting on Mike Tomlin, especially in this spot. Tomlin is 19-6-3 ATS as a home underdog and 21-8 ATS with a spread of less than 2 points. I won't be denying the data here.
The Stats Say: Steelers
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.