Justin Herbert Is Playing At A MVP Level
Before anyone gets pissy, no, I don't think that Justin Herbert is going to win or deserves to win the MVP. That is Lamar's award to lose until someone proves different. However, I do think it's time to get Herbert's name into the conversation. Lets take a look at the numbers (MVP Odds via DK obv).
The grouping of QBs here represent the top-5 candidates for the award this year. Among those 4 categories which are things within the QBs control, he only trails Lamar. In the aspects outside of his control, he has by far the worst supporting cast on offense. An absolute mush of dogshit at IOL, tight ends that refuse to catch the ball and what is, so far, an average rushing game. Beyond just the baseline stats, just think of the names in these rooms. Every one of these QB has at least one absolute animal player. Henry, Cook, Kelce, Saquon, Brown, McBride, MHJ, Hopkins. Who is the best player on the charges offense? Ladd McConkey?
Despite this lackluster cast, the Chargers sit at 6-3 on the back of Herbert and Jesse Minter's defense which, by the way, is also vastly outperforming considering the talent level. Unfortunately for Herbert, the MVP isn't the "doing the most with the least" award, so this next stretch could really mean a lot. After beating the piss out of some bad offenses, their next four games are vs the Bengals, Ravens, @ Falcons and @ Chiefs. Here is how I see it shaking out.
- Vs Bengas: The Chargers have beaten Burrow both times they faced him, including an ass whooping in 2021. This year, the Bengals defense is middle of the road vs both the pass and rush so I think the name of the game will be dominating TOP and denying Jamar Chase. Can't let what happened with Calvin Ridley yesterday happen again. W
- Vs Ravens: The Harbowl is going to be interesting. The Ravens offense is the best in the league by almost every metric while the Chargers defense is the best. On the flip side, the Ravens pass defense is the worst in the league by a large margin, so I think this could end up being a pretty cool shootout. L
- @ Falcons: I have a tough time getting a read on this team. It looks to depend on which Kirk Cousins we get on a given week. As long as Minter doesn't allow Darnell Mooney to continue to be Randy Moss, I think they're good. W
- @ Chiefs: This wretched franchise of criminals and freaks is only undefeated through some series of black magic voodoo spells at this point. They barely beat the Chargers in SoFi with half the team out injured so I'm a lot more confident in this matchup. Plus, what better way to beat devil worship than the most catholic head coach in the league. W
If I'm right and they come out of this 3-1, they are a serious playoff threat. If not, it's fine. They've already outperformed all expectations considering the roster so anything extra is just a bonus.