Drake Maye is Better Than Caleb Williams and Other Observations Heading Into Week 11

Even as I type that headline, I know I'm setting myself up for a classic mush. That sometime in the near future this could appear on my timeline with a "This you?" Old Balls' old takes exposed, and so on. But in my defense, I've been off the grid for a few days. A 16-year streak of doing Knee Jerk Reactions to Patriots games that has survived through Christmases and New Years and vacations was finally broken for the worst of all reasons:

... and I need to get back to doing what I do best. Which is shamelessly and often inaccurately honking on the Patriots' bone like an insufferable fanboy. Besides, after five straight years of crushing disappointment, I'm willing to practice a bit of wishcasting right now. And risk embarrassing Future Jerry if I turn out to be wronger than an MSNBC host on election night. 

Believe me, this isn't intended as a dunk on Caleb Williams. If he was the clue on a Wheel of Fortune puzzle that read "B[ ]ST," I'd still guess that was an "E" in there and not a "U." All that talk in the offseason that he was walking into the best situation of any quarterback taken No. 1 overall ever saw didn't fully account for Matt Eberflus:

In contrast, despite all the suppressing fire aimed at Jerod Mayo and Alex Van Pelt - much of it deserved - it's hard to argue that right now, as we head into Week 11, they've handled Drake Maye's development about as well as we could hope for. To make the comparison I mentioned in that headline, and sticking strictly with percentages and averages to keep it apples-to-apples:

Maye: 4.7 TD%, 3.3 INT%, 5.5 big time throw %,  41.5 successful throw %, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 84.1 passer rating, 58.5 Pro Football Focus passing grade, 66.9 PFF overall grade

Williams: 3.1 TD%, 1.7 INT%, 2.5 big time throw %,  39.8 successful throw %, 6.1 yards per pass attempt, 81.0 passer rating, 57.7 Pro Football Focus passing grade, 60.3 PFF overall grade

With the not-unimportant exception of INT % (each have thrown five picks, but Williams has almost twice as many attempts) Maye has been better in every passing metric. And that doesn't even take into account their running games, where the Pats rookie has been nothing short of dominant:

Maye: 25 attempts, 233 yards, 1 TD, 9.3 yards per attempt, best in the NFL 

Williams: 40 attempts, 236 yards, 0 TDs, 5.6 YPA

All of which means, right now in the middle of November of their rookie seasons, it's impossible to argue that Maye is not the better quarterback. And most likely the better leader at this point. At least if we go by that mic'd up video. Or these little gem moments:

And this reported incident from mid-week:

All of which would mean next to nothing if Maye couldn't play. MLK Jr. had all the leadership you could ask for. Gandhi's intangibles would've been off the charts if you could chart intangibles. But neither was the guy you wanted scrambling for a 1st when the pocket collapses or throwing into a tight window like this:

Or to have the confidence to throw a post with 0:14 left and no timeouts, the wherewithal to get all 10 teammates 23 yards upfield, and the situational awareness to get the ball snapped a millisecond before time ran out. Plus collect the added bonus of a 5-yard offsides on the defense, which probably meant all the difference on the kick with a 2-club wind swirling around. I'll gladly compare Maye to his contemporary QBs, but am reluctant to make this comp. But here goes nothing: This is the kind of end-of-the-half scoring drive we were accustomed to from 2001-19. And haven't seen since. 

Let's add to that one the throw that got the Pats going on their second possession/first scoring drive. Here's Dan Orlovsky breaking down the sail route completion to Austin Hooper:

Maye now has 11 throws of 20-plus yards in his five starts. By way of contrast, Jacoby Brissett had seven with the same team. 

And yet once again we had one of Maye's best throws negated by mistake from one of his receivers. That drive ended with a field goal because KJ Osborn stepped out of the end zone before hes  found himself on the business end of this absolute dime. A full sprint, across-the-body throw that managed to hit Obsorn right in the belt buckle:

Yes, he makes mistakes. He also acknowledges them, seems to absorb them, and learns from them. As this franchise preached for 24 years, they can tolerate errors, just not error repeaters. And at 3-7, there's no reason not to let this freakishly athletic 22-year-old feel free to test his limits the way the 1998 Colts (Peyton Manning, 28 INTs) and 2018 Bills (Josh Allen, 12 INTs in 11 starts) did with their rookies. 

To end this part of the conversation where it began, sometimes you only have the third pick and still end up getting the guy who is perfect for you:

As a Boomer who was in high school when the Celtics traded the 1st and 13th pick for Robert Parish and the 3rd pick, which they then used to take Kevin McHale, I second that emotion. 

Now for other, shorter observations from the weekend:

--If there was a formula for generating nine sacks, you'd have to keep it in a bulletproof briefcase chained at all times to the wrist of someone with Top Secret security clearance. The code for this one could just be "T-H-E-B-E-A-R-S-B-L-O-W-C-H-U-N-K-S." But I think that's reductive and doesn't give Demarcus Covington and his defense enough credit. To echo what Tedy Bruschi said:

In Chicago, it looked like one of the most man coverage-proficient secondaries in the league played even more man than usual. Sometimes with Jonathan Jones disguised as a corner but actually playing free safety.  And with less of a reliance on their base nickel than we're used to. Then they threw in this change-up:

Personally, I've been calling for Schooler to see some snaps on defense since at least last year. Maybe longer. But I imagined him in a goal line specialist role, the way Nate Ebner was used. Having him spy Williams was a bold move given he'd taken all of two defensive snaps in his career coming into 2024. I hope we see more of it. If you can run and tackle the way he can, just let him off the leash and let him figure it out. 

--The defensive tackle rotation went through a horrible stretch from late September and October. But Sunday positively mushroom stamped the Bears' front. Jeremiah Pharms Jr. in particular stood out. He tied for his most career snaps. Put up an impressive stat line:

May or may not have gotten his hand on a punt. And generally went through the interior gaps like a Viking berzerker. If the reports are accurate and Christian Barmore might return soon, he and Pharms and can bookend Davon Godchaux as a versatile 2-gap tackle trio between Anfernee Jennings and Keion White, while also adding Deatrich Wise Jr. for more of a 4-man under/over front that shoots gaps and creates turnover-worthy plays. My keyboard to the football gods' ears. 

--Stop me if you've heard this before, but Christian Gonzalez made at team's WR1 vanish before our eyes:

--And although it's been said many times, many ways, he is good at this whole football defense thing:

--There's a long way to go. But there's time to get there. Regardless, I don't know how you look at the first player I just mentioned and the last, and not think the future in Foxboro is bright:

--Thanks for bearing with me while I was out. I have every intention of not taking any more time. I wouldn't miss this for the world.