There's An Under Trend That Has Hit in FOURTEEN Straight Games: NFL Week 13 Stats And Trends
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Monday morning).
LW: 0-5 (but I had a new fedora on so that doesn't really count)
YTD: 33-28 (33-23 with typical fedora)
Chicago Bears (4-7, 5-4-2 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (10-1, 9-2 ATS)
12:30 PM on CBS
DET -10.5
T 48.5
The Lions continue to just absolutely demolish teams so betting against them at any point is always a risk. But the data tells us that double digit dogs in divisional matchups are 16-8 ATS since 2022. The Lions also haven't won on Thanksgiving since 2016. Maybe since they play such physical and tough football under Dan Campbell, they struggle turning around and playing on just 3 days rest? That's just a theory, not a stat!
The Stats Say: Bears
New York Giants (2-9, 2-8-1 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-7, 3-7-1 ATS)
4:30 PM on FOX
DAL -4
T 38.5
This is a hard game to find meaningful trends for when both teams are playing a lost season with backup QBs. But here's a stat: The Giants absolutely fucking suck. No data can ever make me bet on them. Just take the Cowboys.
The Stats/Common Sense Say: Cowboys
Miami Dolphins (5-6, 5-6 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3, 5-6 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
GB -3.5
T 47.5
The Dolphins team total is 21.5 points. Tua has the Dolphins averaging 29 PPG since he returned from his injury and with Mike McDaniel as his head coach, he averages 26 PPG in road starts going back to 2022. I know it's scary because of the cold Green Bay weather, but they look a lot better and can get to 22 points.
The Stats Say: Dolphins team total over 21.5 points
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3, 8-3 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (4-7, 6-5 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
CIN -2.5
T 47
This is a trend that absolutely blew my balls off. The Bengals are coming off a bye week and it'll be 14 days since their last game. The Steelers are coming off TNF, and it will be 10 days since their last game. In games where both teams have at least 10 days rest, the under has hit 14 times in a row!!!! Eye popping. And it's 27-4 over the last 31. Astounding.
The Stats Say: Under
San Francisco 49ers (5-6, 4-7 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (9-2, 7-4 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC (Sunday)
BUF -6.5
T 46
As of the time we taped this, Monday morning, it's unclear if Purdy will be back for the 49ers which makes things tough. So if we just focus on the Bills, we see that the over has hit in 8 straight Buffalo home games, averaging 52 PPG. That could hit no matter who starts at QB for San Francisco.
The Stats Say: Over
If you missed the sloppy Thanksgiving Advisors, catch up now.