Fraud Watch - The Kansas City Chiefs Are The Worst 11-1 NFL Team Since The 1970 Merger By Point Differential
There they are. Every NFL team since the merger to start the season 11-1. All 34 of them with the Chiefs dead last in total point differntial through 12 games at +54. I saw "Worst 11-1" trending and had to dig into the numbers to confirm. Indeed it's true. The 2024 Kansas City Chiefs are the worst 11-1 team in modern NFL history. At least according to point differential.
Now point differential obviously isn't everything, but it does have some predictive power. Who'd have guessed beating the snot out of teams likely means you're better than the team that squeaked by? But what if that team is the Pat Mahomes led Chiefs? We saw them kind of do this last year. Limp into the Playoffs before going full speed. For comparison, the 2023 Chiefs were 8-4 in their first twelve games and, despite three more losses, still had a higher point differential (+67).
+67 was still good enough to win the Super Bowl last year. And +74 was good enough for those 1976 Raiders - second to last on the chart. John Madden, baby!
But +54? I'm just going to go ahead and say it - I think this team is kind of a fraud. Of course, only a great team is good enough to put themselves in position to be lucky over and over again so they have a fighter's chance to three-peat, but this team is weak compared to what we've come to know them as. Even vs their 8-4 team last year. Hell, they should be probably be 7-5. Blood is in the water with every win they eek out.
Now I get it. No one wants to say it and get fooled again after last season. We all kind of thought they were washed until all the sudden they weren't. Again, point differential isn't the only thing, but it's definitely A thing. And while sure, the 1976 Raiders (penultimate on this above list) won it all, you have to go all the way up to the 2004 Patriots (+141) to find the next Super Bowl winner from the bottom of the list up. And considering the Chiefs 9-point loss in Buffalo, their average win margin this season is a shaky 4.1. I mean, they almost lost to Carolina.
"They just find a way to win" crowd - Not to compare these teams in terms of quality, but how'd that go for Minnesota in 2022 when they started 10-2 and finished the season 12-4 with a -19 point differential before losing in the Playoffs to DANIEL JONES? (now a current Viking).
Generally speaking - the luck usually runs out at some point. Just ask any Commanders fan this season. The Bills and Ravens can absolutely do it. Maybe even the Texans. Hell, the Broncos had them beat once already (until they didn't). I don't know who is going to beat the Chiefs, but someone will.