Sean McVay and Matt Stafford Own December: NFL Week 14 Stats And Trends

Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.

Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning). 

LW: 2-3

YTD: 35-31

Cleveland Browns (3-9, 4-8 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3, 9-3 ATS)

1 PM on CBS

PIT -6.5

T 44

The Steelers not only own the Browns, but also their entire division. They've covered 6 straight home games against the Browns and 12 of 16 at home against the AFC North. And I just always like betting on Mike Tomlin. 

The Stats Say: Steelers

Atlanta Falcons (6-6, 5-7 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (10-2, 7-4-1 ATS)

1 PM on FOX

MIN -5.5

T 45.5

We've got a couple of bad trends for Kirk Cousins here. He's just 3-11 ATS in his last 14 as an underdog, and he's also just 3-11 in his last 14 December games. The wheels could be falling off for Atlanta. 

The Stats Say: Vikings

Seattle Seahawks (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (6-6, 8-4 ATS)

4:05 PM on CBS

ARI -2.5

T 44.5

The Seahawks have covered 5 of their last 6 games in Arizona, and the Cardinals have been just terrible against the NFC West, they're 4-14 ATS over their last 18 divisional matchups. 

The Stats Say: Seahawks

Buffalo Bills (10-2, 8-4 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (6-6, 5-7 ATS)

4:25 PM on FOX

BUF -4.5

T 49

The Bills are red hot right now, but the Rams have been a fantastic late season team. The McVay-Stafford duo has been incredible together in December, going 9-1 SU and ATS. 

The Stats Say: Rams

Los Angeles Chargers (8-4, 8-4 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-1, 5-7 ATS) 

8:20 PM on NBC

KC -4

T 42.5

I've talked a lot about primetime unders, and there's more under trends here. The under is 5-1 in Chargers road games this year and in Jim Harbaugh’s last 12 games against divisional opponents, only 2 games have had more than 42 points. 

The Stats Say: Under

If you missed this week's Advisors, catch up now.