I Get the Rumors Jerod Mayo is Coaching to Save His Job. But Now They're Saying the Same About Mike McDaniel and Nothing Makes Sense Anymore.

Megan Briggs. Getty Images.

I've mentioned this a bunch of times already this season, but it bears repeating. If history has taught us anything, it's that replacing a truly great leader is damned near impossible. One thing factor that makes it more possible is when that ruler chooses his successor. That gives the new monarch legitimacy. And makes any of his rivals look more like usurpers than anyone deserving of the reigns of power. But when the new leader lacks that blessing from the one he replaced, the people are going to demand instant results before they'll throw their support behind him or her. It's the nature of ruling human beings.

So it was only natural that once Jerod Mayo was placed on a throne that previously belonged to a respected and even adored Philosopher King, only to start 3-10,  the natives would grow restless. That's what he signed up for. And if you believe the reports, he'd better not finish 3-14 in his rookie year or it might turn into a full on Peasants' Revolt:

Source - Make no mistake, the Krafts expected a little bit of a bump this season with Bill Belichick departing and Jerod Mayo taking over. They really thought, and most inside the building agreed, that if the Patriots stayed the same on defense, got better quarterback play, turned the ball over less, had a better field goal kicker, and Mayo got the players to buy into his vision for the football team and created a better environment, the Patriots would take a step forward this season and be on their way to true competitiveness in 2025.

It has not worked out that way. The Patriots have the same record as last year, and could be headed for 3-14 — the team's worst record since Dick MacPherson in 1992 — with a tough closing stretch to the season. …

The chances are likely that he returns, but there are organizational sources who believe Mayo needs to keep the team competitive in the final four games.

"If they get blown out in all four games, I think all options are on the table," said one source.

[I] n just about every measure, the Patriots are worse than the 2023 version, despite playing the league's easiest schedule by DVOA. …

Mayo may need to show some signs of progress down the stretch.

All of this makes sense. Second chances require you to show some sign you deserve a second chance. Some quantifiable evidence you can point to that you've done the job so far and can always do better going forward. For instance, I'll give Mayo credit that his team does play hard for him. They don't often play smart. They don't figure out ways to win close games or steal victories from superior teams. But they've yet to quit on him. And there hasn't been a single example of any disgruntled player or anonymous source bad mouthing him. As opposed to say, Urban Meyer's first (only) year with the Jaguars, in which that stuff was coming out of Jacksonville before the end of Summer Movie season. Mayo might have lost 76.9% of his career games so far (on his way to 82.3%) but from the outside looking in he hasn't lost his locker room. That's a positive. 

Still, the idea that ownership might be questioning whether or not they picked the right person and plan to spend the next four weeks reevaluating that decision isn't that hard a concept to grasp. That's football. But like I said at the beginning, it's history. 

What can't wrap my feeble, bourbon-soaked brain around is the report out of Miami that Mike McDaniel is facing the same scrutiny:

ESPN (paywall) - This is outside speculation from people I’m talking to around the league, rather than anything that definitely will or should happen. But some have their eye on Miami and wonder whether there’s a change if things end badly this season, though Mike McDaniel did sign an extension in August.

Wow.  In what universe is this even remotely possible?

 We can all agree expectations in Miami were a lot higher than 6-7 and effectively out of the playoff chase. But if ever any coach's struggles came with a built-in excuse, it's McDaniel's. The math isn't hard. They're 1-3 in the four games Tua Tagovailoa missed. In the seven games since he returned, he's close to 2,000 yards with 15 touchdowns and just one interception. 

Pulling back to a Google Earth view, the year before McDaniel arrived, the Dolphins already had Tua, but were 25th in total yards. Since then, they finished 6th and then 1st. About two dozen NFL owners would send in an elite team of commandos to parachute into another city and exfil a coach with numbers like that, disguise him, give him a fake identity and put him on their sidelines. The very thought the Dolphins are even considering making a change under these circumstances is too preposterous to contemplate. And yet here we are. 

Of course I'm rooting for that very thing. Ludicrous though it might be. And sure, I have my issues with McDaniel's whole Media Darling thing. His carefully-crafted persona of the quirky, chill, tech startup CEO who can relate to the kids is way too precious for my liking. But the man can design an offense. And if I was one of the Krafts, the Dolphins collapsed down the stretch and this somehow came to pass, I'd be on the phone with his agent before I read to the end of the press release. No matter how much I like Jerod Mayo and am invested in seeing him succeed. I'd gladly trade that for the chance to dream happy dreams about what a guy like McDaniel could do with Drake Maye.

My guess is both coaches will be back exactly where they are next season. Regardless, if nothing else, this gives us reasons to tune into the last four weeks of the season for two teams going nowhere.