The Lions Are Unstoppable On Extra Rest: NFL Week 15 Stats And Trends

Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.

Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Draftkings Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday morning). Last week was a banner week for the stats, going a perfect 5-0. Let's keep it going this week. 

LW: 5-0

YTD: 40-31

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3, 10-3 ATS) @ Philadelphia Eagles (11-2, 8-5 ATS)

4:25 PM on FOX

PHI -5

T 42.5

The Steelers have gone over in 5 straight road games with an average of 55 total points in those games. And in Jalen Hurts 31 career home games, only 6 have had less than 43 points. This line just seems too low, even without Pickens. 

The Stats Say: Over

Indianapolis Colts (6-7, 8-5 ATS) @ Denver Broncos (8-5, 10-3 ATS)

4:25 PM on CBS

DEN -4

T 44

The Colts and Broncos are both coming off a bye. And in matchups when both teams are coming off a bye, the under has hit 7 straight times and is 12-2 over the last 14. 

The Stats Say: Under

Buffalo Bills (10-3, 8-5 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (12-1, 9-4 ATS)

4:25 PM on CBS

DET -2.5

T 54.5

This is absolutely the game of the year in the NFL and could very well be a Super Bowl preview. The data likes Detroit here. The Lions, coming off their big win over the Packers on TNF, have covered 8 straight and 13 of 15 when playing on extra rest. 

The Stats Say: Lions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6, 8-5 ATS) @ Los Angeles Chargers (8-5, 9-4 ATS)

4:25 PM on FOX

LAC -3

T 45.5

The Chargers have actually been one of the best favorites in football this year. They've covered 8 of 9 games when giving points this year, and December has been the most profitable month of Justin Herbert’s career, going 10-5-1 ATS. I think they have a big bounce back game after the Chiefs loss. 

The Stats Say: Chargers

Green Bay Packers (9-4, 7-6 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-5, 6-6-1 ATS)

8:20 PM on NBC

GB -2.5

T 46

The Packers are coming off a loss, which is a good reason to bet on them. Matt LaFleur is 18-10 ATS coming off a loss in his career. And on the other side of things, Geno Smith has covered just 2 of his last 11 home games. I think the Packers are just WAY better than the Seahawks and prove it here. 

The Stats Say: Packers

If you missed this week's Advisors, catch up now.