It's Time To Hedge On A Celtics / Cavaliers Eastern Conference Finals
That's a wrap Eastern Conference regular season / Play-In / Round 1 / Round 2. Just bring us Boston vs. Cleveland already.
Brutal weekend for the third seed New York Knicks. They played both big brothers in Cleveland on Friday night before Boston on Sunday and got whomped in both. It appears Tom Thibodeau's check engine light is finally going off after going 15,000 miles late on an oil change on his 2025 model team. Maybe having three out the four players with the most minutes played this season wasn't the best idea after all. In Thibs' defense, something like this hasn't happened to the Knicks since way back in 2024.
On the plus side, the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns might be able to help the Knicks get through the Pacers, but I think this past weekend showed that's the ceiling for this team. There's just no chance to make the NBA Finals. And that goes for anyone else not named Boston or Cleveland in the East.
Couple of stat runs. First is every team with a winning record vs one or more of the three 40-win teams in the NBA. 
Obviously small samples here, but the only two teams from the East able to get the better of Boston or Cleveland is Atlanta and Indiana. And Atlanta topped both of them with a combined 4-2 record. But since Atlanta pretty much already bowed out in trading De'Andre Hunter at the deadline, they aren't a serious team. They're a team destined to win a double overtime thriller vs the Chicago Bulls in the 8th place game. That's about it.
We can open that sample size up a little if we assume all three 40-win teams are in the same class. Seems like a fair bin the lump these big-three in. Here's every team's record against them as group:
If Atlanta already bowed out, it's really up to the Pacers. They're the only team in the East with a fighter's chance. The Bucks have shown little growth from last season when Indiana pasted them in a 4-2 first round series win. As of now, they are headed for a rematch in 2025. And dear God, Knicks. The only team with a worse record against the class of the NBA is the Wizards at 0-9 vs your 0-7.
I'll give Indiana this. They at least have a fighter's chance. But I just don't see it. I'm ready to make a play on either the Celtics or Cavaliers to make it out of the East. I don't know who. But I don't need to. While I don't see a Boston vs Cleveland Conference Finals matchup bet on DraftKings, we can craft a similar, but safer hedge. Here's the play:
- Five units on Boston to win the East (-110)
- Three units on Cleveland to win the East (+245)
Say $25 is a unit. If Boston wins, your $125 bet on them would net you $38 in winnings ($113 for the win minus $75 bet on Cleveland). If the Cavs win, you net $58.75 ($183.75 for the win - $125 bet on Boston). Basically, your laying $200 to win about $50. Not the most exciting bet in the world, I'll give you that. But is Indiana really getting through both these teams? Milwaukee? Are you really buying into the Piston's 6-game win streak? Definitely a team that worked wonders from last season, but let's not get crazy here. Whoever it is, they'll have to beat both titans of the East.
Yawn all you want. I love this bet.
