Meet The 3 Teams Who NBA History Says Are The "True Contenders" That Have A Shot Of Winning The NBA Title
Once you reach this part of the NBA calendar, a few things happen
1. Teams are now taking things seriously/trying every night
2. We learn who the "true contenders" are
What I'd like to focus on in this blog is #2.
While some will tell you the NBA regular season doesn't matter, I am here to tell you those people are morons. Of course it matters, especially if you are a fan of a team that has dreams of winning the NBA title that season. Over the course of the 82 game schedule, there are certain benchmarks you want your favorite contending team to hit if you want them to reach the top of the mountain later this Spring.
Perhaps the most important of all, at least in my opinion, is Phil Jackson's 40/20 benchmark. I've talked about it before and frankly, I've become obsessed with it, mostly because of what NBA history tells us. For those unaware it's pretty simple. You are not a "true contender" until you win your 40th game before your 20th loss. If you have hopes of winning a title, this is arguably the most important benchmark to hit. Should you go 39-20 and then win your 40th? Sorry. NBA history says you do not qualify.
While there will always be exceptions to every rule, this one is pretty undeniable. Something insane like 46 out of the last 50 NBA Champions all hit 40/20. You can still make a deep run and not hit 40/20, but NBA history says you're going to lose to a team that did. You can also hit 40/20 and not win the title (2023 Boston, 2024 Nuggets etc), so it should not be taken as something that guarantees a title, but rather something that pretty much every single title winner since most of us have been alive has done.
Ever since I started keeping tabs on this the last few seasons, NBA history has remained true
In 2023-24, what did we see? We saw the 40/20 Celtics beat a red hot Mavs team in the Finals to win the chip. I'll remind you, that Mavs team did not hit 40/20.
The year before, we saw the 40/20 Nuggets take down the red hot Heat to win the chip. I'll remind you, that Heat team did not hit 40/20.
Even in the prior season in 2022, we saw the 40/20 Warriors beat a red hot Celtics team in the Finals to win the chip. That Celts team finished like 25-5 or something insane and it still didn't matter, in the end, they didn't hit 40/20 and lost to a team that did.
Well, after the Knicks and Grizzlies losses last night, we finally have out final 40/20 grouping of the 2024-25 NBA season. According to NBA history, there's a strong chance that the NBA title will be won by one of these three teams
And look, I get it. If you're a fan of a team not listed above that has dreams of winning the title, you're not going to want to put any stock into 40/20. You'll cope. I would do that shit too had the Celts not punched that ticket, and it technically is possible for a non-40/20 team to win, as shown by the 4 teams that have done it in the last 50 years. Personally, I'd just not have to rely on a statistical anomaly heading into the playoffs, which is why I care about the Celts hitting this benchmark in their title defense season. It may not guarantee anything, but it sure as shit is nice to have that part of NBA history on your side.
In terms of the final list, I'd say this is pretty much what we all expected right? These have been the 3 best teams all season, the Thunder and Cavs hit it weeks ago, and if you were to break things down into title-contending tiers, I think most would have these three grouped together.
Now, it should also be noted that some of the teams that won the title without hitting 40/20 were teams that made big time trade deadline acquisitions. Teams like the '04 Pistons and the '95 Rockets didn't hit it, but traded for impact players (Sheed, Drexler) that helped get them over the hump. Maybe you think that could be this year's Warriors and Lakers, but the odds certainly are not in their favor.
Aside from 40/20, there are also a few additional benchmarks that essentially every single title winner hits. They finished with a top 3 seed, and they had an SRS of 3.0+. Basically SRS is your point differential based on your strength of schedule. Here's how BOS/CLE/OKC sit with those benchmarks
BOS: hit 40/20, 2 seed, +8.77 SRS
CLE: hit 40/20, 1 seed, +10.26 SRS
OKC: hit 40/20, 1 seed, +12.76 SRS
As you can see, all three "true contenders" hit all three benchmarks.
Teams like DEN/NYK/MEM have also hit a top 3 seed and a 3.0+ SRS, but they did not hit 40/20. The Rockets hit the SRS number, but are not a top 3 seed and did not hit 40/20.
So how do you differentiate between these 3 teams? Well, that all depends on how much of NBA history you want to buy into.
If those benchmarks help determine who the true actual contenders for the title are, I personally don't think we should ignore what NBA history tells us about those "true contenders".
For starters, if you win the MVP, recent NBA history tells us you're cooked when it comes to winning the title. Not since Steph Curry in 2014-15 has the MVP won the title in that same season. In fact, since 2000, so the last 25 years, the MVP has only won the title twice (LeBron in 2012-13 and Steph in 2014-15). For whatever reason, the MVP curse is a thing for this era.
Just look at Jokic. He played for a team that repeatedly hit 40/20, hit all the other benchmarks that tell you the Nuggets should win the title, and the only year he did was the season in which Joel Embiid won the MVP. Last year it went back to Jokic, they were a 40/20 team etc, and they lost in the 2nd round.
Giannis won back to back MVPs, and guess what year he won the title? In 2021, when Jokic won his 1st.
So as an OKC fan, this would somewhat concern me. It might actually be a blessing in disguise for them if Jokic wins the MVP, especially since DEN did not hit 40/20. As we just saw with the 2023-24 Nuggets, hitting 40/20 but falling victim to the MVP curse is a reason possibility.
If you're a Cavs fan, there's a certain benchmark that certainly helps you as well. They hit the big 3, do not have an MVP, and also lead the NBA in eFG%. You have to go back quite a ways to find a champ who did not finish in the top 3 in eFG%. As of now, CLE is the only one of these "true contenders" who can make that claim. They sit in 1st at 58.7%. The Celts are in 6th at 56.0%, but are within striking distance of 3rd (NYK, 56.4%). A team like OKC is all the way down in 11th, sitting at 55.2%.
Quickly, going through the last few champs and their eFG%:
- 2024 Celts: (t-1st, 57.8%)
- 2023 Nuggets: (1st, 57.3%)
- 2022 Warriors: (3rd, 55.2%)
- 2021 Bucks: (2nd, 56.6%)
- 2020 Lakers: (5th, 54.2%)
- 2019 Raptors: (3rd, 54.3%)
- 2018 Warriors: (1st, 60.3%)
You get the idea. Outside of the 2020 Lakers which came in a weird Covid/Bubble season, the Champs found a way to be in that top 3 of eFG%.
Breaking things down even further, we also have the Conference Finals Rule. Essentially, this rule states that to win a title, at least one of the two best players on the team must have played in a Conference Finals before. This is something that applies to pretty much every champion from 1950 to today, with the exceptions being the 2015 Warriors and the 1956 Philadelphia Warriors.
How do the 3 "true contenders" this season stack up to that rule?
BOS: Yes
CLE: No
OKC: No
So as you can see, as things stand right now for all 3 "true contenders" there are potential road blocks for them to reach the top of the mountain.
For the defending Champs, it's the eFG% number. NBA history says they have to find a way to get into that top 3
For OKC, they could very well have to go up against the MVP curse, probably won't hit the eFG% benchmark and do not hit the Conference Finals benchmark
For CLE, their issue is the Conference Finals benchmark.
Of those teams, the Celts have the best chance to finish the season hitting each of these important title benchmarks, but they are going to have to continue to shoot the ball well to end the season after slumping for nearly 2 months.
So while technically once you get to the Playoffs anything can happen, it's hard to ignore 75+ years of NBA history. Barring some sort of catastrophic injury or massive upset, it does feel like the Basketball Gods have spoken, and the 2025 title is coming from one of these three teams.
As someone with an extreme rooting interest in how this plays out, I can't help but be pleased with how my favorite team stacks up against all these important historical benchmarks. Now I just need them to stay healthy and do what every other team in NBA history that has been in their spot has done. Finish the job.