Everything You Need To Know To Be Ready For Day 2 Of The NBA Play In Tournament
Day 1 of the Play In, for the most part, was a smashing success. Even with the Magic eventually pulling away and winning by a blowout, the Hawks did fight back at times and made that a competitive game entering the 4th quarter. The Warriors and the Grizzlies game was great from start to finish, and it was the perfect way to help build anticipation for the real playoff games, which start this weekend.
Day 2 has a bit of a different feel. You could see a world in which the 7 seeded Warriors make their way through to the next round, but it's a bit of a different discussion when it comes to the 9/10 games. I don't care who eventually comes out of these games, something absolutely catastrophic would have to happen for any of the remaining teams to beat either OKC or CLE in a 7 game series. I know we've had 8 seeds upset 1 seeds before, but let's not get crazy. Those two just completed historic seasons and are like 20+ games ahead of whoever makes it into Round 1.
Instead, my interest in Day 2's matchups is the fact that the competition for that 8th seed is very much still in the air. It's not a guarantee that MEM or ATL beat whoever comes out of this 9/10 slate. So while none of these teams should be expected to advance in Round 1, that doesn't mean there isn't still a decent amount of drama. The Mavs are hellbent on winning, even though in reality losing this game would be a MUCH better route for the franchise. The Grizzlies could see their season end and miss the playoffs completely, despite winning 48 games. The Kings might be on track back to the Dark Ages if they miss the playoffs completely.
There's also something to be said about a "win or go home" game. It's why we love the NCAA tournament. Anything can happen when all you have to do is win one game, every possession, every decision, they could ultimaately end your season.
So really, today is about seeing who could play spoiler for the 8th seed, which maybe isn't as thrilling as Day 1, but it's still playoff-esq level basketball, and if the Play In games over the years have told us anything it's that even the 9/10 games can be fun, even if none of these teams have a realistic chance of winning even a single playoff round.
Miami Heat (10) vs Chicago Bulls (9)
Head to head: CHI won 3-0
Without a doubt, these are two of the most confusing teams in the NBA. Their overall record tells you they're mostly dogshit, as both are well below .500. At the same time, the Heat are the only non-top 6 seed in the East with a positive point differential (+0.6). The Bulls semi-tried to blow things up and start a rebuild by trading Zach Lavine, but in reality are experiencing a bit of a Ewing Theory situation where they're actually better post trade? Their roster is confusing because their is real talent there, Bill Donovan has them playing a style more suited for 2025, and they've also been on a bit of a roll recently, winning 3 straight and 7 of their last 10.
Add in the playoff/Play In experience that the Heat have, and it's hard to know what to expect from this game. Big picture, neither team is all that good. But in this moment? For this game? It's not totally out of the question that we see a version of each that might lead you to believe they could win the game against the Hawks and then steal a game or two against the Cavs.
I'm not sure enough people are paying attention to the basketball that both Coby White and Josh Giddey are playing right now. They've been incredible.
Let's also not forget that we've already seem Coby White go nuclear in these Play In Games. This time last year he went crazy for 42/9/6 over the Hawks
and this year's version is even better. Since the trade deadline, the Bulls are 17-13, which is the 12th best record in the entire NBA. They've been about middle of the pack in terms of offense, defense, and net rating, but that's certainly a better run than their overall 39-43 record would indicate. Since March 1st, they're 15-7! That's better than CLE, MIL, ATL, LAL, NYK, ORL, DEN, DET, MEM, SAC, MIA.
So who are these Bulls? Are they the team that is playing the best basketball of their season and are sneaky a tough out, or are they the team that went 15-27 against teams .500 or better?
Here's what I will tell you. The biggest difference in this year's Bulls is how they've embraced 3PT shooting. The BUlls take the 3rd most 3PA in the NBA at 42.0, and as a team, they're shooting at a 36.7% clip for the year. This team plays FAST AS HELL, trailing only the Grizzlies in terms of pace of play. Why do I find that significant?
When it comes to beating Playoff Spo, you have to do a few things. First, is take and make a shit ton of 3s. Make the Heat prove that they can not only match your volume, but also match your production. The 2024 Celtics gave the blueprint. Since the deadline, the Heat are only 22nd in 3PA. That is not how they beat teams. You do have to account for the Playoff Heat Dark Magic, but they are not a team that would prefer to play catch-up in terms of 3P production.
The next thing you have to do is make sure you do everything in your power to prevent the Heat from being able to set their halfcourt defense. This is where Coach Spo is at his best. His zone will fuck your shit up if you're not ready for it. Trust me. Between Wiggins, Mitchell, and Bam with Ware protecting the rim, the Bulls are not going to enjoy scoring on this team in the halfcourt, which is why their pace is so important. The Heat simply do not foul. They have the 3rd lowest opponent FTA rate in the NBA (BOS, SA), so getting out on the break and playing fast is key.
The good news is that the Bulls are 3rd in the NBA in fastbreak points, and the Heat are around the middle of the pack in limiting those opportunities. The bad news for the Bulls is the Heat don't really turn it over, so it's going to require them to get stops in order to get out on the break, which isn't exactly the Bulls' strong suit.
With the Heat, it'll be more of the same of what we see from them this time of year. You're going to see them rely heavily on Tyler Herro's scoring, whether that's by using the Bam illegal screens in the P&R or through multiple DHOs. We've also seen him have massive Play In Games, and just last week, he had his way with these very Bulls
The Heat playoff formula is simple.
1. Lock in defensively with the zone
2. Create TOs / points off TOs
3. Bank on Dark Magic three point shooting
This is a matchup of two conflicting styles, but it's also two teams that just when you think they're cooked, they suddenly look like world beaters. It's why they're both so tough to gauge. Given what we saw from ATL last night, I don't think it's crazy to think that whoever wins this game will eventually punch their ticket to Round 1.
Dallas Mavericks (10) vs Sacramento Kings (9)
Head to Head: SAC won 3-0
To me, this is the most depressing matchup of the Play In Tournament. The situations around both teams are a bit of a disaster, albeit for different reasons. At this point it feels like the Mavs wanting to win this game despite it actively hurting their future is more about Nico Harrison wanting to have an "I TOLD YOU SO" moment as opposed to what's best for his team, but that's certainly not the first time we've seen that from him.
With the Kings, they fired their coach for some reason, traded for Zach LaVine as a win now move, but then never really put it together. This was more along the lines of their previous seasons, where on paper you'd assume they'd be much better than what you see on the floor, but they can't seem to get out of their own way. They might be one of the most Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde teams in the West given you have no clue what to expect from them on any given night.
I do think that of these two teams, it's the Kings that have the best chance to upset MEM should they get there, but that's not the only reason why you should watch this game.
Mostly, it's because it feels like all the Kings do is play games with crazy finishes. You flip them on for some late night hoops during the season on League Pass, and as long as you're not a Kings fan, you're rarely disappointed. Nobody loves getting down by double digits only to fight all the way back and have the game be close in the final 2 minutes more than the Kings. It's remarkable, really. You can almost set your watch to it, so even if they find themselves down early tonight, don't change the channel.
In terms of firepower, these teams aren't all that close. The Kings own the 7th best offense in basketball, the Mavs 18th. Since the deadline, the Mavs offense has tanked to 23rd. Defensively, both of these teams have been pretty brutal post-deadline, with the Kings being 21st and the Mavs 23rd. Having AD back in theory helps with both of those things, but I fear this is going to be a situation where the Mavs simply don't have enough horses (no pun intended but intended) to stay attached. Nico loves talking about how defense wins championships and that's why they did the Luka trade, well here you go. Here's a high powered offense for you to test that theory.
Considering the Kings do not own their pick (it goes to ATL if it falls outside the top 12), I would imagine they are much more motivated entering tonight. A loss for them would be much more of a disaster given their pick situation and the fact that they're simply a better team.
Dallas, on the other hand, has no protections around their pick. They don't owe it to anyone, regardless of where it lands. Unless you think hell is going to freeze over and this team beats OKC, there is really nothing to gain from them winning tonight. I know Mavs fans might not want to hear it, but at the same time maybe they're sneaky rooting for this just to throw it in Nico's face. Never underestimate the power of spite.
Even if you think Day 2 tonight is more a formality than anything else, it's still playoff basketball. Yes, logic will tell you this is all to decide who ends up being food for the 1 seeds, but you never know what can happen. Guys get hot, someone rolls an ankle, and the next thing you know we have a 2023 Heat situation on our hands. Unlikely, but technically possible.