Rear Admiral's Picks And Predictions For The First Round Of The 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs
[In case "picks and predictions" didn't make it clear, "picks" are actual wagers whereas "predictions" are...predictions. All lines from DraftKings Sportsbook. DK Partner. ]
After the seven-month slog of the NHL regular season, the real fun starts tonight at 6PM in Winnipeg, Manitoba as the Jets host the St. Louis Blues to kick off the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs.
ST. LOUIS BLUES @ WINNIPEG JETS 6PM TNT/truTV
Series line: WPG -190/STL +160
Game 1 line: WPG -198/STL +164
Over/Under: 5.5 +120/-142
The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Jets, goalie Connor Hellebuyck (about to win back-to-back Vezina Trophies), and their battle-scarred fans are going to have their hands full with a dangerous underdog Blues squad. After his last two post-seasons, all eyes will be on a bounceback-seeking Hellebuyck, who started 62 of 82 regular season games.
The Notes ripped off a dozen straight wins down the stretch to grab a Wild Card spot and have been playing in pretty significant games for the last two months. Conversely, the Jets grabbed onto first place early on and cruised through the season so they’ll need make sure to meet STL’s emotion from the jump.
In a rematch of the 4 Nations Face-Off goalies, Jordan Binnington will once again look to remind folks that he’s at his best when the games are biggest. Should he be replaced for any reason, 24-year-old Joel Hofer facing his hometown team would make for a great story (and I guess you never know with Jim Montgomery calling the shots). Monty has a 16-17 playoff record while Jets bench boss Scott Arniel coaches his first p’off game tonight.
This should be a better battle than some expect. But the Jets’ edge in scoring depth will be the difference and I don’t see their goalie pissing down his leg for the third post-season in a row. JETS IN SIX.
COLORADO AVALANCHE @ DALLAS STARS 8:30PM TNT/truTV
Series line: COL -155/DAL +135
Game 1 line: COL -135/DAL +114
Over/Under: 5.5 -125/+105
In the nightcap about 1300 miles due south, the Colorado Avalanche visit Dallas to take on the Stars in their First Round match-up. This will be the third series in the last six seasons between this pair of annual contenders.
In a memorable 2020 Second Round match-up during the Bubble Cup Playoffs, the Stars beat Colorado 5-4 in OT of Game 7. In last year’s Second Round, Dallas handled the Avs in six games. But things are significantly different this time around.
To wit, Dallas will be without not only their best defenseman Miro Heiskanen but also their best forward, Jason Robertson, who was cruelly injured in the last game of the season (he could possibly play “if the series goes more than a week” per Pete DeBoer). But the Stars do have former Avalanche star Mikko Rantanen, who started the season in Denver but ended up in Dallas after a pair of blockbuster trades. Oh and the Stars lost their last seven games of the season.
A leaky Alexandar Georgiev won’t be in the Colorado crease, having been replaced by the guy he was traded for—Mackenzie Blackwood. And it’s been great to see the Thunder Bay native be handed the reins of a contender and running with them after some fits-and-starts in Joisey.
But let’s face it, the Nate Dogg is a possessed man on a mission and just got a shiny new toy to play with for the next several years in Martin Necas. Not to mention that wizard on the back end who gets mentioned in the same breath as Bobby Orr more than Derek Sanderson due to his seemingly effortless sublime play. The Avs also loaded up on local vet depth at the deadline, going with both the South Shore (Charlie Coyle) and the North Shore (Jimmy Vesey).
(Unfortunately, we’re going to lose a bona fide contender in the First Round yet again. The drumbeat for 1-8 playoff seedings is getting louder but Gary doesn’t seem too concerned. And if Gary don’t want it, Gary don’t do it. The league really should go back to the brief period in the early ‘80s when it was 1-16. Think about it—why should geography/divisions be a barrier to some potentially great SCFs? Do it, Gary.)
And that contender is sadly going to be Big D. The loss of a superstar on D and one up front will be too much for the Stars to overcome, despite Jake Oettinger’s best efforts. The Avalanche are going to be just that heading into Dallas’s zone—an avalanche of offense. Too much Nate, too much Cale. AVALANCHE IN FIVE.
WAGERS: COL series -155 for a FDR, Game 1 -135 for same, Game 1 -1.5 +195 for a Monticello. Also gotta root for my guy, JV.
On Sunday, puckheads will be glued to their couches for a trio of Game 1s starting at 3PM in Raleigh as the Hurricanes welcome the New Jersey Devils.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS @ CAROLINA HURRICANES SUNDAY 3PM ESPN
Series line: CAR -245/NJD +200
Game 1 line: CAR -205/NJD +170
Over/Under: 5.5 +120/-142
The two last had a playoff tango two years in ago in the Second Round in which the Canes dummied the Devils in five games and outscored them 24-13. But Akira Schimd isn’t walking through that door, folks. Vitek Vanecek isn’t walking through that door. You know who is though?
Jacob fucking Markström. If the Devils are to steal this (I think the line’s a little high), Marky will need to be the reason why. He’s certainly capable of outplaying either/any Carolina goalie. And as a 35-year-old starting goalie in the playoffs for the third time in 15 seasons, bet against him at your own will. Because he definitely can be the backbone to an upset here.
But he will have his hands full containing Carolina’s full coterie of offensive weapons. Aho. Jarvis. Stankoven. Svechnikov. Roslovic. Hall. Oh, and they just added dynamic Russian prospect Alexander Nikishin. New Jersey will need to hit them (or try to) early and often in hopes of tenderizing out a series win and Brenden Dillon is more than happy to lead the way.
I feel terrible for Jack Hughes. Sucks to see young superstars miss out on these legend-making games, especially a good guy like him. And ultimately, his loss proves to be too much. HURRICANES IN SIX.
WAGER: NJD to win Game 1 by shutout 8/1 for a c-note.
OTTAWA @ TORONTO SUNDAY 7PM ESPN2 (lol)
Series line: TOR -170/OTT +145
Game 1 line: TOR -162/OTT +136
Over/Under: 5.5 -108/-112
This is pure porn for hockey fans everywhere: The Battle of Ontario. One star-crossed, long-suffering, neurotic fanbase—either Toronto’s or Ottawa’s—will be getting bounced in the First goddamn Round and the online choosing of violence will be vicious.
The Leafs continue to try to get over the perennial play-off hump of getting to even a Conference Final. And under the tutelage of Craig Berube, they look pretty well-prepared to make a run after winning an extremely competitive Atlantic Division. Strong in net, lots of high-end offense, very solid veteran D corps.
The Sens just got over their perennial play-off hump by reaching them. But they’re not just happy to be here. Tons of hockey fans having been waiting to see Jimmy Stü and Lil Big Walt on the playoff stage. And the Sens have no shortage of firepower either.
But they’ll need Linus Ullmark to outplay Anthony Stolarz if they want to send the Leafs to yet another First Round flameout. But I don’t see it. Leafs have a coaching advantage, more than enough skill, and I don’t see a Stolarz drop-off. MAPLE LEAFS IN 6.
WAGER: Game 1 over 5.5 for a FDR.
MINNESOTA WILD @ VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS SUNDAY 10PM ESPN
Series line: VGK -205/MIN +170
Game 1 line: VGK -198/MIN +164
Over/Under: 5.5 -105/-115
The series could be called A Tale of Two Expansion Cities. Vegas is in its eight season of existence and has now made the playoffs in seven of them. They’ve had two First Round losses, two losses in their third series of the playoffs (WCF & SF), a SCF loss, and a Stanley Cup Final win.
In those same eight seasons, the Wild have made six post-seasons with four First Round losses and a Qualifying Round loss. They haven’t made the Second Round in 10 years. Their one and only trip to the Western Conference Finals was 22 years ago, their third year in existence. They’re kinda like the Nordic Senators.
Is this the year that Billy G.’s charges finally make some playoff noise? They sure do have their work cut out for themselves. Getting Joel Eriksson Ek back is huge but even with Kirill Kaprizov, they can’t go pound-for-pound offensively with a stacked VGK squad.
28-year-old Jack Eichel is in the midst of his superstardom (28-66—94, 8 PIM in 77 GP) and has become one of the league’s premiere two-way centers. Mark Stone still produces at a PPG pace despite approaching 33 with a laundry list of injuries. Not to mention 30-goal guys Tomas Hertl and Pavel Dorofeyev as well as plenty of depth.
But Minny may have an X-factor on the blue line with budding superstar Brock Faber and newly-signed Zeev Buium. The skill between the pair could throw a wrinkle into VGK’s plans.
The goalie match-up is intriguing with Filip Gustavsson (2-3, .921, 2.33 in five p’off starts) vs. ’23 Cup winner Adin Hill (12-6, .932, 2.09, three shutouts in 17 p’off starts). But I think Vegas just has too much ‘oomph’ for Minny. GOLDEN KNIGHTS IN SIX.
MONTREAL CANADIENS @ WASHINGTON CAPITALS MONDAY 7PM ESPN
Series line: WAS -320/MON +250
Game 1 line: -192/+160
Over/Under: 5.5 -125/+105
Here’s your big First Round upset right here. The Habs have essentially been playing playoff hockey for several weeks. The Caps, like the Jets, got a fat early lead and never gave it up as they breezed through the season.
But the Jets didn’t have a traveling media circus accompanying a record-breaking chase like the Caps did. And I wonder if the daily distraction might have sapped even just a dollop of energy from them.
Spencer Carbery will have his guys prepared but I wonder if there are any concerns in net. It doesn’t sound like Logan Thompson will be ready to start the series meaning Charlie Lindgren will get the nod.
After a Cinderella regular season last year, his play dipped a bit this year. And granted there weren’t many (any?) must win games as he filled in for the injured Thompson recently, but he’ll need to up his game quite a bit if the crease is his.
Because he’ll need to match or outduel Montreal goalie Sam Montembeault, who was a huge part of the Canadiens mad dash in locking down the final playoff spot. I caught a fair share of Habs games down the stretch and he was making numerous game-changing saves on the regular.
Offensively, the Habs boast twelve forwards with double-digit goals compared to eight for the Caps and few have been playing better than Nick Suzuki lately. But Montreal also holds the Wild Card in this series—rookie phenom defenseman Lane Hutson. This kid is a game-changer and has to be considered the favorite for the Calder Trophy. Yeah, and there's Ivan Demidov as well.
When Canadiens players pull on that sweater this time of year, I swear that it gives them just a little extra juice. And like the Jets vs. the Blues, the Capitals better come out ready because the Habs have been locked in for awhile now. CANADIENS IN SIX.
WAGERS: MON series +250 for a FDR, MON Game 1 +160, MON Game 1 regulation only +220, MON Game 1 -1.5 (line not currently posted).
EDMONTON OILERS @ LOS ANGELES KINGS MONDAY 10PM ESPN2
Series line: EDM -135/LAK +115
Game 1 line: LAK -118/EDM -102
Over/Under: 5.5 -102/-118
The Kings after losing to McDavid and the Oilers in the First Round three years in a row…
And this is the year I think he stops getting away with it. The Oilers are coming off a very long season. They're missing their top shutdown D-man. Their all-universe superstars are both dinged up as well as a handful of other players. And their goaltending doesn't exactly have fans teeming with overconfidence, particularly when compared to LA's. The Oilers scored nine more goals than the Kings but gave up 30 more than LA did.
Honestly, I think it's as simple as "the Kings are due" and they will not allow themselves to lose to the same foe in the First Round for the fourth year in a row. This is a well-balanced forward group and a very solid D-corps. And lest we forget, Darcy Kuemper is a Stanley Cup-winning goalie who started 16 of 20 Avalanche games that post-season.
Despite Leon's insane year, the Oilers just don't look as scary as they did last year. And I don't see Skinner or Pickard outplaying a locked-in Kuemper. KINGS IN FIVE.
WAGERS: LAK series +115 for a FDR, LAK Game 1 -118 for a FDR, LAK Game 1 -1.5 +220 for a Monticello.
FLORIDA PANTHERS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING TUESDAY 8:30PM ESPN
Series line: FLA -115/TBL -105
Game 1 line: TBL -118/FLA -102
Over/Under: 5.5 -108/-112
After about a 30-year wait, NHL fans finally got to see a Battle of Florida in 2022 (Second Round sweep by TB) and then another one last year (FLA won First Round 4-1) and they did not disappoint. There was instant animosity between the intra-state rivals and it will be on display once again in this rubber match.
Barkov, Reinhart, Verswaggy, Bennett, and Marchand will all be game soldiers once the puck drops. But in addition to lingering injuries to key contributors like Matt Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad, the Panthers have played a shitload of hockey over the last two seasons and I think it's gonna finally catch up with them against a deadly Lightning squad that I feel like people are sleeping on for some strange reason.
Kucherov (37 goals). Point (42). Guentzel (41). Cirelli (27). Paul (22). Hagel (35). Hedman still playing at an elite level. McDonagh continuing to be one of the most important D-men in the league thanks to both his play and his legendary leadership. And when the Cats get chances, they still have to beat Vasilevskiy who looks much more like the goalie who went to three straight Stanley Cups and not the guy returning from injury that we saw last season.
The Lightning have more gas in the tank and their high-end skill guys are playing at a higher level than Florida's. The chess match between future Hockey Hall of Famers Paul Maurice and Jon Cooper will be fun to watch but Tampa Bay will be too much for Florida's D and Bobrovsky. LIGHTNING IN FIVE.
WAGERS: TBL series -105 for a FDR, TBL Game 1 -118 for the same, TBL Game 1 -1.5 +215 for a Monticello.
