When You Take A Closer Look, It's Wild How Similar The 2024 And 2025 NBA Finals Actually Are
If you were to ask most people back in October who would be the last two teams standing and competing for the Larry O'Brien trophy, how many would have said OKC/IND? 1% Fewer? I think most would have put the Thunder there, and despite the fact that the Pacers had just made the ECF, they weren't exactly at the top (or even top 3) of the supposed contenders to come out of the East. But the beauty of sports is that they are not played on paper or on Twitter. It's about what you do on the court, and in reality, both teams are more than worthy challengers for the top spot on the NBA mountain, and as a result, we're headed for a pretty intriguing Finals.
Or are we?
Given that there's no basketball for the next few days, I've had the time to think about these Finals and this matchup specifically, and I can't really shake the feeling that in a lot of ways, we basically have a reincarnation of the 2024 NBA Finals. I'm not kidding, just look at the similarities
2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder
- Led the NBA in wins with 68
- Won their conference by 16 games and had a sizable lead over the rest of the NBA
- Had a top 5 point differential ever (+12.9, the highest ever)
- Most wins by 10+ points this season (54)
- Most 20+ point wins this season (22)
- t-Most 30+ point wins this season (8)
- Were built with a mix of great drafting and savvy front office trades
- Were led by a top 5/All NBA 1st team player
- Were led by a young head coach who started in their G-League system
- Owned a historic defense
- Only lost 2 games in a row one time (late April) and never lost 3 in a row
- 35 home wins
- t-Fewest road losses (8)
Does this sound familiar to anyone? No? Well, it should
The way the Thunder came out from Day 1 of the 2024-25 season and completely destroyed everything in their path was pretty much exactly what the 2023-24 Celtics did. They jumped out to an 11-2 start in their first 13 games. The 2024 Celts? 11-2 after 13 games. By Christmas, the 2024 Celts were 23-6. The 2025 Thunder on Christmas? 23-5.
Over the last 50 games of last season, the Celts went 38-12 with a +12.5 net rating. Over the last 50 games of this season, the Thunder went 41-9 with a +13.2 net rating.
They have had different styles and approaches, but the dominance is nearly identical. Even their team construction is pretty similar. SGA is their Tatum, JDub is their Jaylen Brown, Chet is their Porzingis, iHart is their Al Horford, Caruso is their Derrick White, Dort is their Jrue Holiday etc. OKC has shooters off the bench as well as lineup versatility. They can play small, they can play big, they can fit whatever style their opponent wants to play.
Sound familiar?
That's the first half of the equation. The thing that makes these Finals feel a little eerie is that same is pretty much true for the 2025 Pacers and the 2024 Mavs as well.
2024-25 Indiana Pacers
- Made the Finals with a 50-32 record and a 4 seed (DAL was 50-32 and a 5 seed)
- Took down the 1 seed in the 2nd round (DAL took down the 1 seed in the 2nd round)
- Went 34-14 since Jan 1st with a +5.3 net rating (DAL went 31-18 with a +2.6 net rating)
- Led by a star point guard who can have spotty defense at times
- Finished the season with a +2.3 scoring differential (DAL was +2.3)
- 7th this season in pace (DAL was 7th in pace last year)
Even if you look at the different checkpoints throughout the season, the 2025 Pacers and the 2024 Mavs were right in line with each other. At Christmas, the 2024 Mavs were 18-12, the 2025 Pacers were 15-15. Both teams had huge runs starting around Jan 1st, and their playoff paths weren't all that different. Heading into the Finals, the 2024 Mavs were 12-5, and these Pacers are 12-4.
Then you get to how the team is being talked about heading into this series, and it feels just like 2024. Remember how the media couldn't stop hyping up the Mavs ahead of the Finals? How quickly and willingly they seemed to ignore the historic season that had just taken place the previous 8 months with a level of dominance rarely seen before in NBA history?
Does that not feel like exactly what is currently happening in 2025 with the Thunder?
Perhaps you are someone who believes that this Pacers team does present a tougher challenge to the Thunder than the 2024 Mavs were to the 2024 Celts, and I don't want this to be taken as me throwing shade at the Pacers or that they're not legit or any of that stuff. They are, and they absolutely earned the right to participate in the Finals.
I just can't shake the feeling that this is simply more of a repeat of what we all saw/heard/dealt with heading into last year's Finals, and that by the end of it, there's a strong chance the final result isn't too different either. When a team does something as historic as the 2024 Celts or the 2025 Thunder for the duration of an entire season (both regular and postseason), that team wins the title. Sometimes, you don't need to overcomplicate things
and I get that the media has to try and sell this series so people watch and all that stuff. This also isn't to say history cannot be made, and the Pacers can't pull off the greatest net rating mismatch in NBA history. I'm just saying it feels like we've seen this exact movie before, and we know how it ends.
This time last year, after the Celts packed up the Mavs in 5 (clearly punting Game 4 so they could win at home), the general consensus was
"ah, maybe we should have seen this coming, given what they did all year. We were silly to doubt them"
Call me crazy, but it feels like that's where we're headed in about 2 weeks.