Hot Seat: The Oklahoma City Thunder And Their Historic Season

Jesse D. Garrabrant. Getty Images.

Through 3 games of the NBA Finals, I'm not sure how many people had the Indiana Pacers sitting in the driver's seat with a 2-1 series lead. Many didn't even have this series hitting 5 games, and yet here we are. Another reminder that basketball is not played on paper. At the end of the day, you can have all the talent in the world, but at this stage, once you reach the NBA Finals, it all comes down to execution. The side that finds a way to make the plays when a game enters winning time is what matters, not what you did in the regular season or how stacked your team is etc.

Now, the Indiana Pacers are just 2 wins away from their first ever title. On the journey to 16 wins, once you get to this level (14), your brain is all over the place. You're so close to the top of the mountain, yet so damn far, and these next two games are unlike any other games in the series. It'd be one thing if the Pacers were up 3-0, because at that point the series is over. You did it. But 2-1? That's an entirely different ballgame. As a team and a fanbase, you have to trick your brain not to take the bait, and understand there is A LOT of basketball to still be played. Just ask the 2022 Warriors about being in this spot and what happened. 

But it's also more than fair to say the Thunder now find themselves squarely in the hot seat. This situation is exactly why choking away Game 1 was so massive and why giving away playoff//Finals games is dangerous. You eliminate your margin for error. OKC now has to win 3 of the next 4 to win the title, which is definitely possible for a team as good as this, but certainly an uphill battle considering 2 of those remaining 4 have to come on the road. Not only that, but they are also facing a few historical obstacles:

- The MVP Curse (no current MVP has won the title in the same season since 2014-15)

- No team in NBA history has ever won the title when losing a playoff game by 40 (OKC lost by 42 to MIN)

- In the 2-2-1-1-1 format, teams in the Pacers position are 34-21 all time (Road win, road loss, home win)

- Teams up 2-1 in the Finals win 80% of the time

But if you're someone who doesn't believe in that kind of supernatural stuff, I get it. The thing is, there are also some basketball issues to be sorted out if the Thunder have hopes of coming back and winning this series.

For starters, the change to their starting lineup doesn't look like an issue on paper given that it has a 118 ORTG / 105 DRTG / +13.3 net rating in their 36 minutes together through 3 games and is a +3.3 while on the floor together. The issue? For the series, the Pacers are outrebounding the Thunder. Their massive lead in Game 1 is why the Pacers were able to pull off the upset, and even in a game like last night where the Thunder ultimately won the rebounding total, they were outrebounded in the 4th quarter when the game was in the balance. In the Finals, the margins are so slim, that stuff matters.

The very thing they experienced last year vs DAL, and something that was the exact reason they went out and traded for Hartenstein is showing up again in these Finals as a result of their decision to move away from the double big and instead go small with Cason Wallace. The lineup that won 68 games, had been pretty decent in the playoffs and put up historic numbers during the regular season hasn't played a single minute together in these Finals. That feels….weird. 

In the 10 minutes that iHart/Chet have shared the floor together in the Finals so far, they are a +7. Now with their backs up against the wall, I think it's time to go back to what carried you all year. I get that it might make matching up with someone like Siakam more of an issue, but at this point, I think you have to adjust. Especially in the non-Siakam minutes. If you want the defensive versatility, I could see maybe starting Caruso, but in my opinion, it's time for the Thunder to get back to what they did all year to great success. The NBA Finals are not a time to be stubborn or prideful. Do what it takes to win, and going back to double bigs feels like an easy starting point for OKC.

The lineup issue is one thing, but there's also another familiar problem that plagued the Thunder last playoffs that has showed up in these Finals. Their shooting, specically their late game shooting, has been abysmal. Just 21.1% as a team in the 4th quarter from deep these playoffs, compare that to 52.2% for the Pacers. In their two losses, the Thunder are 0-9 from deep in the 4th quarter. They haven't made a single 3PM in the 4th quarter in 2 of the 3 games! Shooting was something Sam Presti didn't address at the deadline, and so far through 3 games their inability to make a jumper late in the game has been a big reason why they are in a 2-1 hole.

So what's at stake the rest of the series?

Not to be dramatic, but should the Thunder fail to win 3 of the next 4, we're talking about arguably one of, if not the greatest choke jobs in NBA history. I know that might sound a little hyperbolic, but it's the truth. The Thunder won 68 games, they had the highest point differential of all time, they had some of the best defensive numbers of all time, they were OVERWHELMING favorites in these Finals, people were declaring this the start of a dynasty etc.

If you want to puff your chest out when things go your way and have that type of narrative surrounding you, well then you can't run from when things don't work out. You have to own it. In that way, the Thunder aren't only in the hot seat when it comes to this series, they're also in the hot seat when it comes to how this team could be talked about for the rest of time. In this new CBA world as we know, nothing is guaranteed. It's not a lock that the Thunder continue to make Finals runs and win a title (or multiple). Before you know it, players will need their extensions, and their roster will look different. Sure they have a fuck ton of picks, but there's no guarantee those picks turn into the caliber of players they might have to replace. 

But as I said at the top of this blog, there is A LOT of basketball to be played. As a Thunder fan you may be a little down right now, but it's also important to remember this is a spot OKC has been in before. Down 2-1 to the Nuggets, they found a way to win 3 of the next 4. Granted, the Pacers are not depleted with injuries like the Nuggets were, but don't worry about that. This is a Thunder team that has not lost back to back games more than once all season long, and that came in mid November. There's no reason to think they can't immediately bounce back and steal Game 4 just like the 2022 Warriors managed to do, which was the turning point of that series.

There's also this to remember as an OKC fan if you're looking for any sort of positive spinzone. In these playoffs, Game 3 has been SGA's stinker game, and last night was no exception. He was brutal. The good news? It doesn't linger, and he actually gets better as the series goes on

If OKC is going to pull this off, they need the MVP to be the MVP. SGA is put in some CRAZY conversations, and with that comes the expectation that you produce and win like the players he's compared to have done. The pressure is now on to live up to his own hype, and so far this postseason, he's shown the ability to do that. Now he just needs to do it 3 more times. 

As someone who was rooting for a long and competitive series, through 3 games that certainly feels like where we're headed. The Thunder are too good to just roll over and die, and the Pacers have proven they have the chops to go blow for blow. Who gives a shit what the TV ratings say, this has been an awesome Finals and is setup to be even better down the stretch. Friday cannot come soon enough.