SEVEN Fantasy Football Draft Values Based On 2024 Wins Above Replacement And 2025 ADP
It's the middle of July. The sun is out. The grill is smoking. The beaches are packed. And you have no idea what sand between the toes even feels like. Because here you are - reading a fantasy football blog. Preparing for the upcoming war in the group chat.
The worst part of being a "start your fantasy football prep in July" guy is we all know how this goes. Somehow we'll all lose to our friend's cousin Estefan who prefers soccer anyway and doesn't actually know anyone's name and just refers to them in conversation as "J.Taylor" or "J.Chase" as written in the app, but casually joined the league in late August a few years ago after joining the group on a friends trip where we waited forever to go out every night from his whimsical hour-long phone conversations catching his long-time girlfriend of three-and-a-half weeks up on his last four hours.
I'm kidding, of course. We left Estefan's ass at the house.
The point is this. The more the fantasy gods screw us over. The more we must prepare. We cannot be Estefan. We refuse. No one wants to luck their way to a championship. We want to dunk over our friends throughout the season for some sick GM moves they didn't see coming.
Today we start this journey. If you missed last week - I got you started getting the juices flowing on a team name. Today we get to actual work. What you see in the graph above is my self-made statistic: fantasy football wins above replacement. It's my contribution to the fantasy community. I came up with it a few years ago as a way to compare which players were more valuable across positions. Points obviously can't do that.
Check out my new Substack "WAR Weekly" if you want to nerd out on the details, but today we're going to compare current 2025 ADP with last year's WAR standing to get an idea for who the best values are. Obviously situations change year-over-year, but this should give us a starting point for many players.
Baker Mayfield:
ADP 80 | 2024 WAR rank 17 | Value = 63
This dude simply gets no respect. No player has a bigger difference in 2024 WAR vs 2025 ADP. And he's exactly the guy you should target if you are left with the traditional wait on quarterback strategy. While I advise going hard on one of the elites, this is a perfectly sound pivot for a Round 7 steal. Now losing Wirfs could be a big issue. And I'm not sure what the deal is with Godwin's health. But Baker can play and the Bucs don't exactly have any bruisers at RB to give the ball to close to the end zone. Bucky ain't that guy.
Josh Allen:
ADP #27 | 2024 WAR Rank #9 | Value = 18
I've been saying this for years now and I'll be saying it again this year. Taking a QB early is no longer the novice move. It's the sharp move. And it's all thanks to guys like Josh Allen. Don't say I didn't warn you this year.
Just like I warned you last year:
Yes - you have to take him early in Round 3. That's perfect. You'll already have some combo of big-name RB/WR, RB/RB, or RB/TE. Round 3 is the perfect time to be bold and lead from the front. I've been tracking WAR for years and Josh Allen has been a first round worthy player every single year for at least four years. It's insane how consistent he is even without top-talent at receiver in recent years. Seems that just means he'll run it himself instead of passing it which is all the better for you.
Sure - you can try to hold off for Lamar or Jayden but don't be surprised if you blink and they're all gone.
Lamar Jackson:
ADP #24 | 2024 WAR Rank #3 | Value = 21
Another big name that sticks at the top of the ranks year-over-year. Running quarterbacks, man. They absolutely kill it in fantasy. And now we know Derrick Henry can have his production while Lamar has his at the same time. If someone jumps on Josh Allen and you're up next - go get your boy. I know there's likely to be a sophomore QB wave to lift the production from middling fantasy started QBs, but I don't see the point in guessing who specifically will rise to the occasion when you have the third most valuable player in fantasy (draft equity agnostic) from last year available.
George Kittle:
ADP #40 | 2024 WAR Rank #12 | Value = 28
I am so excited about Kittle this year I almost left him off this list so you all don't crash his ADP that my dumb friends pull up the day of the draft for the first time. The 49ers were a major disappointment last year and everything is pointing towards them coming right back. Easiest schedule in the league, Purdy is actually healthy, and targets just opened up with the departure of Deebo Samuel.
Even with last year's disappointment, Kittle was still the only tight end worthy of a first round grade. Not even Bowers can say that. Steal, steal, steal!
Alvin Kamara:
ADP #45 | 2024 WAR Rank #14 | Value = 31
I get it. The Saints are a mess. Perhaps the biggest "who the hell is playing quarterback?" team in the history of football. Right now their options are Spencer Rattler, Tyler Shough, or retired Derek Carr. Of the three, I think retired Derek Carr is their best option because he can't do anything negative on the field, by rule. That's where they're at.
And this is all the market sees right now. It has no imagination. Kamara ain't old yet. And sure, he's not going to be a league-winner on this bum ass team. But the value you get here for a late fourth-round pick is pretty darn good. Worth pick #14 last year, why not take a chance? Especially if you're a zero-RB guy taking your first one maybe a little early this year.
Brock Bowers:
ADP #18 | 2024 WAR Rank #16 | Value = 2
At first you might say the market is pretty much on point here. Taken 18th after being the 16th best the year before. Then again - are we sure we remember who the Raiders quarterback was last year? I'm not saying Geno is some All Star here, but the difference in QB is going to be drastic in Vegas. And let's not forget being a rookie tight end is hard. What happens when dude get's a year under his belt? The next Travis Kelce is here. His name is Brock Bowers.
James Conner:
ADP #53 | 2024 WAR Rank #30 | Value = 23
James Conner is like that healthy portion of veggies on the dinner plate. Might not be the most exciting, but it brings everything together and completes the meal. Maybe that's why he's being overlooked here. The Cardinals are not a very exciting team, but Conner is a proven three-down dog that can catch the ball. Round 5 is hell of a deal.
That's it for today. Thinking next blog we'll pivot from this Nordstrom Rack deal hunting and go full on slumming at Good Will. The thrift store of discarded, scuffed up players that might be salvageable. I'm cruising the aisles right now. Be proud of me. I just walked by Gabe Davis without skipping a step. It's as scene. But every now and then some famous artwork or rare sports cards can be found at the thrift store.
I'll let you know what I can find.