Football is BACK! Predicting Chargers Record In Harbaugh's Sophomore Season

Luke Johnson. Getty Images.

Last year I went 10-7 predicting the schedule. My biggest mistake was thinking they would split the series' with Denver and Las Vegas. I also thought some opponents were going to be a lot stronger in certain areas than they were (TEN on defense. CLE run game, CIN overall). The team was also, in general, very lucky. A very soft schedule helped them get to a relatively hollow 11-wins while losing 5 of their games vs playoff teams (KCx2, BAL, PIT, TB), winning 2 (DEN x2). 

That fake record was immediately exposed when they made playoffs. J.K. Dobbins totaled 26 yards. Their paper-thin WR corps could not get open with the exception of Ladd McConkey (Will Dissley literally shovel passed an interception to the Texans at one point). And, best of all, the IOL got caved in, leaving Herbert as the most pressured QB in the 2024 playoffs (52.8% of dropbacks, one of the worst in recent playoff history.). 

However, there have been improvements! They went out and signed Mekhi Beckton away from the Eagles, which makes the right side of the line essentially a wall of pure, grade-A beef. Beckton stands at 6'7, 364lbs and Joe Alt is 6'8, 322lbs. MASSIVE. They still don't have an answer at Center or Left Guard (Bozeman and Zion Johnson were the main culprits in the Texans loss) but I feel much better about them now vs where they were. They also drafted Omarion Hampton and signed Najee Harris to shore up their very bad run game. Harris may have blown up his face with a firework but I'm feeling much better about Hampton than I did on draft night. 

And, best of all, the two receivers they drafted look FANTASTIC. Tre Harris has been catching everything thrown his way and KeAndre Lambert-Smith has also been making some incredibly athletic moves. Meanwhile, QJ is still dropping balls, even the ones he manages to catch….. Anyway, this already looks leagues better than the unit last year because THIS is not a real playoff WR group. 

Let's get down to business and go through this schedule. 

Fri 9/5 vs Kansas City (Brazil)

LOSS (0-1) I DESPISE international games. Pure hatred. Let me tell you exactly what is going to happen in this game. It will be a little close through one half, the Chargers may even build up like a 10 point lead at some point. Then, a key chargers player's knee is going to explode trying to cut on this Brazilian turf made out of shredded up LEGOs, the Chiefs will come back and win by a field goal. End Scene. You can try and argue like all the dullards on twitter that Mahomes is regressing but I will tell you this: If Mahomes has a healthy Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, we may see a return to his turbo numbers. 

Mon 9/15 @ Las Vegas

WIN (1-1). The Raiders' roster got a lot better than last year without a doubt. Better coach, much better QB, drafted one of the most highly-touted RBs in recent memory. My counterpoint to those improvements is that the Chargers also got a lot better from a roster construction standpoint. The Raiders will also be coming back from a trip to New England to play Vrabel's first game as HC of the Pats. I have the feeling that they are going to be VERY physical in that matchup which is great for the Chargers, who get a long break post-Brazil.

Sun 9/21 vs Denver

WIN (2-1). I think Nix is a lot better than I initially gave him credit for but I think he will regress a bit this year. As good as thier OL and great defense are, I can't bet against a team that swept them last year. 

Sun 9/28 @ New York Giants 

WIN (3-1). I actually think this MAY go the other way if the game was later in the year but, this early, I'm taking my boys. They haven't lost a single game to the Giants since they drafted Eli (much better than having 2 Super Bowl wins, in my opinion) and Russ doesn't inspire me to bet against that history or the fact that the Giants are still rebuilding. 

Sun 10/5 vs Washington

LOSS (3-2). I love the Commies. Rooting for the downtrodden underdog was fun as hell last year and Jayden Daniels already established himself as having that special something. They're also cool team in that they're a bruising, old school defense but a pretty lighting quick offense. I'll hedge a little bit by noting a couple things, though. They're experienced but aging, and with age comes injuries. And, typically speaking, there is a sophomore slump for electric rookie QBs once opposing teams have a year of tape. 

Sun 10/12 @ Miami

WIN (4-2). The fins are in a weird spot. Teams are adjusting and rebuilding to compensate for motion offenses. They have speed, but how long can a 31 year old Tyreek hold on to that as his calling card? And Tua? I don't think he's playing football 5 years from now (not due to skill). Their last matchup(2023) was a shootout but the Chargers have changed a lot since then. The name of the game is now ground control which takes away the dolphins ability to use speed.

Sun 10/19 vs Indianapolis

WIN (5-2). It all comes down to the QB situation. They had a below average defense as well so I'm happy taking this as one of the easier wins on the year. 

Thu Oct 23 vs Minnesota

LOSS (5-3). I probably have a higher opinion of the Vikings than most despite the fact that their starting QB has never played a snap. However, sometimes you need to believe in football magic. McCarthy beating Harbaugh is one of those things I spiritually see happening. 

Sun 11/2 @ Tennessee 

WIN (6-3). It's not that I don't believe in the Titans. I bet on the Chargers to lose to them last year! I just don't know. Last year, I thought their defense plus the trio of Hopkins, Ridley and Boyd would cover for Levis' deficiencies. Hopkins skipped town, Boyd didn't break 400 yards and Ridley barely scratched 1k. Now they have a regressing defense under Callahan and a new QB that I just don't know enough about. I'll go with what I do know, the team that beat the Titans by 10 less than a year ago. 

Sun 11/9 vs Pittsburgh 

LOSS (6-4). I'm low on Rodgers after his Jets tenure but there is something about pairing him with a competently run organization that makes me a believe again. Maybe I'm a sucker for that. Their defense did great work vs the Bolts last year though and, if they beat us with Justin Fields, why couldn't they do it with Rodgers. 

Sun 11/16 @ Jacksonville

WIN (7-4). There are a lot of people on this team that I'm sure still have bad feelings about their playoff matchup a few years ago. I think Harbaugh has a good sense for the moment, so I'm guessing there is going to be an effort to really kick their teeth in. I love BTJ but they're steel stumbling as a team and I think the Chargers take advantage of that. 

SUN 11/30 vs Las Vegas

LOSS (7-5). I know I was the sucker for this last year but I'll bet on them splitting again this year. Like I said before, I believe in football magic. Harbaugh v Carroll has that magic and I feel like the Chargers are typically not what I want them to be after a bye week. It might be a close game but I think they take this one. 

MON 12/8 vs Philadelphia. 

LOSS (7-6). The Georgia boys are going to abuse Zion and Bozeman, racking up 4 sacks through the interior alone. Saquon will build up a little slower than usual in the first half before busting off one long run and a few 3rd and 5 back breakers in the second half when the defense is gassed. The same will happen when Brown and Smith catch a few daggers over the middle while the LBs are heaving. Hurts will finish with 150 passing, 55 rushing and insufferable Eagles fans will do donuts on twitter saying Hurts is better than Herbert. 

SUN 12/14 @ Kansas City

WIN (8-6). Again, I'm betting on football magic here. The Chargers have not been able to beat Kansas City and I think now, with some reconstruction time under his belt, Harbaugh gives us a signature win in Arrowhead that we crave like water in a desert. Especially with the world betting against him on a short week. 

SUN 12/21 @ Dallas 

LOSS (8-7). I know history shouldn't play a big role here, but Dak has always been a weird nut for this team to crack. They have two insane WRs, a giant new guard and a new coach. They'll do better than last year. 

(Flex) vs Houston 

WIN (9-7). Again, Harbugh is an old school football magic guy. I think that playoff game sticks in his craw every morning and he craves revenge. They've filled in SOME of the gaps that they exploited in that matchup and I think they're ready for this one. 

(Flex) @ Denver

WIN (10-7). This is hard to determine but, if this goes according to my vision, both of these teams are going to be jockeying for a WC spot. That means both teams will have their seasons on the line @ Mile High which is a daunting task. I believe in my regular season boys in this spot. 

Last year I felt comfortable with 8-9, now I almost feel like I'm reaching with 10-7. They're an improved team but have a harder schedule. So this will really come down to what they got.