Ryan Clark Is A Dummy Vol. 1238149
I don't want to waste too much time so lets just get to the thesis of what Ryan Clark is saying which is "Whenever it matters, Justin Herbert has been terrible". This is one of the easiest to disprove takes RC has drooled out and that is saying something.
1. “He didn’t win big games in college!” He single-handedly won the Rose Bowl his senior year.
2. His entire career in the NFL has been nothing but carrying HORRIBLE rosters through clutch performances. Since entering the league, he is THIRD in 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives. All while surviving a defense that allowed the most points in the league history through a 3 year period and without a competent running game. Awful O-line too.
3. What this all comes down to for people who, like Clark, don't actually watch Charger football games, is the two playoff performances. Let me break it down!
CHARGERS v JAGUARS 2022.
This one is very simple. One cool piece of context is that in the Chargers season finale, a meaningless game as they had already clinched, Brandon Staley decided to keep his starters in which lead to Mike Williams (who lead the team in yards and TDs) breaking his back and missing this wild card matchup. During the first half of this game, the defense balled out. They brought in four interceptions and Herbert lead scoring drives on three of them (2 TD, 1 FG). 27-7 at the half.
So lets set the stage. You're going into the second half of a game with a 20 point lead. You're offense is missing it's #1 yardage receiver. Your backup RT is playing LT. Both starting TEs are out of the game. A kick returner and practice squad elevation (who fumbled a jet sweep and set up the Jags first touchdown) are rounding out your receiver corps. What should be the game plan for this half? If you answered RUN THE BALL and/or DRAIN THE CLOCK, you win a prize!
Guess how many times the Chargers ran the ball in the second half? SEVEN TIMES. For how many yards? ZERO. Meanwhile, Herbert went 10/18 in the half with 147 yards as defensive guru Brandon Staley engineered one of the worse defensive collapses ever. I find it fundamentally impossible to put that loss at Herbert's feet alone. I emphasize alone because he obviously deserves some of the blame. I just don't see how you can look at the full picture and land on the conclusion that it's on him.
CHARGERS v TEXANS 2024
Some context for this one. The Chargers went into this game as an 11 win paper tiger. They smashed bad teams but were beat soundly by every playoff team on their schedule except Denver (who were themselves demolished in the playoffs). They had one of the worst WR units in the league (McConkey could only raise the curve so much) and their IOL had been horrendous in pass pro. Not great when you're going against a team with the 4th most sacks and the 2nd most interceptions.
The game goes like you should expect. Will Anderson Jr and Mario Edwards ran stunts into IOL and obliterated them, leading to Herbert being pressured on 52% of his dropbacks. The Chargers run game was, once again, non-existent with 38 yards in the first half. Like the previous go around, the defense held strong in the first half before running out of gas and getting dominated in the second. Time time, though, they didn't have the points to back it up. Under fire, Herbert threw four picks. On paper, AND it reality, that's horrible. However, we will get back to that in a minute.
You know what the game reminded me of? When Mahomes went up against the Bucs in the Super Bowl. Ryan Clark actually had a interesting take on that one!
Mahomes fighting for his life = being pressured on 52% of his dropbacks. The exact same rate that Herbert was pressured during the Texans game. Here is how the numbers looked for Mahomes in that game vs Herbert against the Texans.
And, like the tweet reads, the numbers for Herbert also generously include 2 interceptions which would I would not put on his shoulders.
So both of these guys were put into horrible situations on the biggest stage. Their offensive lines were DOMINATED which forced them to play hero ball for them to even have a chance of winning. The big difference? Mahomes at least had two generational receivers to work with. To Ryan Clark, though, Mahomes was simply fighting for his life while Herbert was stinking it up.
As optimistic as I would like to be this year, I actually think the team will probably be worse. They have a harder schedule, more travel, and Rashawn Slater had what is possibly a career-ending injury the same week that he signed the biggest OL contract in NFL history. I haven't had faith in Greg Roman as an OC since he signed on and that hasn't changed a bit. I think Joe Alt is gonna shine at LT but the rest of these guys (except maybe Beckton, although I'm still skeptical of him) are going to be dominated by any of the competent pass rushers in the league. I also don't expect some insane year out of Omarion Hampton or One-eyed Najee Harris, who are downhill runners that WILL be facing early contact behind this IOL.
So I guess my prediction right now for this offense is something similar to 2021. Bad line and mediocre run game be damned, just let Herbie sling it to his upgraded WR group and hope for the best. The big x-factor will be if this defense which. Can they step it up and keep things competitive vs actually good teams? In the meantime, I'll keep looking at this graphic I made and hope it means something.
People really do forget the colts lost 41-0 to the Jets in his third career playoff game!