Dumping Them Out: Numbers Lie
Welcome back to another episode of Dumping Them Out. I was informed by my wife this morning that November 1st is officially Christmas. I went Christmas (decorations) shopping today and everything. Bought a pillow shaped like a gingerbread. Bought another pillow with a Christmas dachshund on it. Merry Christmas everybody.
PSA for anybody in the gambling business. I was watching college football yesterday and had the thought that Michigan still employing Sherrone Moore as their head coach is kinda ridiculous. There's no other world other than this one (where Michigan got in trouble for sign stealing, and needed a sacrificial lamb coach to fill the spot in case some crazy sanctions came down), where Michigan would hire someone with his experience to be their head coach. But the NCAA is toothless. So that didn't happen. I mean, it's borderline a top 5 job in the country. At minimum top 10. Sherrone Moore filling that position is wild.
However.. in the last 10 years, I'm batting roughly 0% in my Michigan takes. I could not possibly be more consistently wrong about what a team is. I was so confident that they would NOT win he national championship in 2023 that I said I'd cut off my head if it happened. Everything I think about them is consistently wrong. So there's like a 90% chance now they go on a crazy run to finish the season and somehow sneak into the playoffs after yes other win over Ohio State. They are currently +700 to do so. And, even if it doesn't happen this year, and Michigan decides to not fire him because there are way too many teams competing for head coaches right now… now I'm starting to think it might actually make some sense…
Speaking of odds the make the playoffs, every time I see ESPN put out any sort of "probability to __", there's always at least one percentage that makes no sense. For example, one
How can Notre Dame's chances be less than 25%? How could they be worse than North Texas, James Madison, and USF? There's nobody left on Notre Dame's schedule. They're going to finish with 2 losses – a 3-point opening week loss @ Miami, and a 1-point week 2 loss vs Texas A&M. Are they implying that the committee would leave out a 2-loss Notre Dame? I have a hard time envisioning a world where that happens. Meanwhile, Texas has more than twice the chance Notre Dame does to make the playoffs? Texas has 2-losses, and games at Georgia and vs Texas A&M on their schedule. So is ESPN saying a 3-loss Texas team could make it? Because they certainly don't have over a 50% chance to win both those games. The SEC is going to end up with at least 4 2-loss teams. I apologize for rambling aimlessly, but ESPN is constantly rolling out probabilities that just don't make a lick of sense.
Shoutout to whatever that swimsuit company with the X is who I've inadvertently been doing free ads for for years. In my defense, their GIFs are really good marketing.
Also, as of this morning, apparently Indiana has a better chance of making and winning the national championship than Ohio State.
Love to see it as a Hoosiers fan, but that's just not true. There's not a college football fan in the world, Hoosiers fans included, who truly believe that. More than anything I trust gambling odds, and right now, Ohio State is +220. Indiana is +500.
The worst of the all is their "win probability" on their fantasy football app. I swear every other week I'll get to a point where ESPN is telling me I have a 99% chance to win, and when I look at the matchup, I feel like the matchup is still a toss up. Look at this one last week. Monday Night Football. Late in the 3rd quarter. We each have 1 player in the game. ESPN tried telling me it would take a miracle for me to lose this one.
What the hell are you on about, ESPN? That Bill Croskey-Merritt character barely even exists out there. That's one TD, or a couple 20-yard receptions away from me losing. If McLaurin didn't leave the game with a mystery injury out of fucking nowhere, I was cooked. I'm sick of ESPN throwing percentages at me like I'm supposed to take them seriously. Get your god damn numbers straight, guys.
Congratulations are in order for college football agent extraordinaire Jimmy Sexton. He's done it again. Hugh Freeze has been fired by Auburn. That's another $15M buyout for Jimmy to grab a cut of. At least I think he's still Hugh Freeze's agent. Unless something has changed since 2022, when this article with this kind of insane quote was written.
On3 – “If I were to show you the number of texts I’ve received from big-time college coaches wanting to come to this place,” Freeze said. “It will be very difficult to decide. The deciding factor will be putting a staff together that compliments each other and drives the culture. I have a list of guys, and my agent Jimmy Sexton gave me a whole list too of coaches he trusts.”
That's nuts right? These coaches who are represented by Jimmy Sexton are using him to help make hiring decisions? What percentage of that list do you think were Jimmy Sexton's clients? All of them? Jimmy is just showboating at this point.