A Complete Comprehensive Breakdown Of The Nats vs Dodgers - Everything You Need To Know
As we prepare for the first game of the Nationals-Dodgers NLDS later today, lets take a look at how these two teams stack up against each other. The Nats are definitely pretty banged up right now and losing Ramos and Strasburg for the series is certainly a let-down but Washington is in a prime position to advance to the Championship Series. For a team that constantly lit up the headlines in 2015 (then missed the playoffs), the last month or so of 2016 has almost been relieving. While the national media focuses more on the Cubs‘ incredible record or the Red Sox’ potent offense or the Giants’ even-yeared successes, Dusty Baker and the boys have been lurking and I’d bet that’s the way they like it.
Scherzer vs. Kershaw
On the pitching side of things, we’ve got perhaps the best matchup you could ask for. Lefty Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher of this generation and Max Scherzer is one of the very few that can even be included in the conversation. He is one of 6 pitchers ever to hurl multiple no-hitters in a season and one of 3 with 20 strikeouts in a 9 inning game. As historic as Clayton Kershaw’s career is shaping up to be, 2016 looked as though it would become the crown jewel season in his web of Cy Young-caliber years but back injuries sent him to the disabled list and limited his total seasonal output. Upon returning from his ailments in early September, Kershaw did not miss a beat and has actually managed to lower his already-absurd ERA to just 1.69 thanks to a 28 inning stretch with just 4 earned runs allowed.
Max Scherzer, meanwhile, had a tough April but has been every bit of the ace that we expected over the past 5 months. His 2.57 ERA and 238 strikeouts over those most recent 185 innings indicate that he can hold his own against anyone – even a healthy and dominant Kershaw. Throw in the fact that Kershaw has been much, much more human in the post-season (4.59 career ERA in 64.2 IP) versus Scherzer’s postseason mark of 3.79 in 62.2 IP. I typically don’t put too much stock into past post-season performance because I think most of it all comes out in the wash but when you’ve got a matchup between two bona-fide aces who each have the stuff to take over a game, you have to start grasping at stars. Ultimately, I don’t think either of the starters will factor into the decision – both will toss 7+ innings and I’d be shocked if either allow more than a single run. If I could have one pitcher on my team over the course of his career, it would have to be Kershaw but, in this single game, its a wash.
The Bullpen
The bullpen is similarly a pretty even battle. The Dodgers ranked 1st in baseball in bullpen ERA (at 3.35). Number 2? That would be the Nationals with their 3.37 ERA. Kenley Jansen is the Kevin Love of closers. He’s got phenomenal statistics if you don’t dig deep but how much has he really helped his team win? Jansen has blown 6 games so far in 2016 (2 more than Melancon in fewer innings) Joe Blanton, the failed starter with a midget face, has revitalized his career as a reliever and finished the year with a sparkly 2.48 ERA; his ERA, however, surged to 3.03 after the All-Star break. Similarly, Pedro Baez held batters to just a .169 average in the 1st half but gave up hits 22.2% of the time in the 2nd half. Ross Stripling, Grant Dayton, and Julio Urias are all rookies. With Urias, that is really the only knock on him – that he doesn’t have much MLB experience – because he seems absolutely incredible otherwise. Since celebrating his 20th birthday, Urias has held opposing teams to just 4 runs in 28.2 MLB innings. Lefty Luis Avilan hasn’t pitched too much this year but has been pretty effective when he has, and Josh Fields has been unlucky but has let opposing batters hit .295 against him.
On the Nats’ side of things, Mark Melancon just finished up his 3rd year with a season-long ERA below 2.00 in the past 4 years. He just gets the job done and has been very effective with the Nats. The Nationals’ roster isn’t official yet but relievers Blake Treinen and Olly Perez have each pitched remarkably consistently throughout 2016 – Treinen has been consistently effective while Perez has been consistently mediocre. Shawn Kelley continues to prove he was an excellent acquisition and allowed just 1 hit in his 10.1 innings pitched in September. Matt Belisle has been good and Marc Rzepczynski has a shot at making the roster as another lefty out of the pen. Sammy Solis was phenomenal when healthy and should get the job done if he can limit the walks. Finally, Reynaldo Lopez is a guy who I’ve long advocated for and despite his rough-looking stats, I still believe he’ll be a fine option out of the pen. The Nats get the advantage here despite having very similar ‘pen statistics to the Dodgers. Melancon is a better option than Jansen and, aside from the Dodger’s Urias, I like the talent and recent results coming out of the Nats’ pen more.
The Batters
At catcher, I’m a big believer in Pedro Severino but Dodgers’ backstop Yasmani Grandal hit .267/.376/.581 with 20 homers since July 1st. He gets slept on due to his notorious streaks but this guy can hit. Advantage: Dodgers.
Adrian Gonzalez, the 1B for LA is no longer anything special but you don’t even have to be ordinary to outplay Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman has not played like a major league player this year and while Gonzalez’ sub-20 HR total is a far-cry from his career high of 40 back in 2009, this is an easy advantage for the Dodgers.
2nd Baseman Daniel Murphy will be at least a finalist for the National League MVP award and had the best offensive season of any player on either of these two teams. He had a butt injury but should be ready to go for tomorrow. Chase Utley might not be the talent that he once was but you’ve still gotta watch out for him or else he’ll try to take your leg off with a dirty slide. Advantage Nationals.
It doesn’t matter that Danny Espinosa has stopped playing well offensively because the Dodgers’ shortstop Corey Seager is the sure-fire Rookie of the Year and is a legitimate challenger to Daniel Murphy in the MVP race. Advantage: Dodgers
At the hot corner, Nationals’ 3B Anthony Rendon is a great player and had a quality season but the Dodgers third baseman, Justin Turner, went insane this year. From the 7th of June until the end of the year, he hit .301 with 24 homers. I’d love to give Rendon the advantage here but Turner is just one of the most underrated players in all of baseball. Advantage: Dodgers
The Nationals have two of the most talented young players in the game patrolling their outfield and both Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are better than whatever the Dodgers have to offer. Turner’s season somehow compares favorably to Ichiro’s MVP rookie year in 2001 (after adjusting for games played) and Trea has already exceeded my very high expectations of him. Harper, in a down year with quibble about injuries to all parts of his body dominating the radio waves, still walked over 100 times, finished 8th in the National League in Win Probability Added, swiped 21 bags, and hit 24 homers. If rock-bottom for Harper is an all-star season like this one, he is worth $500 million. Finally, Jayson Werth didn’t set the world on fire like Turner did but he did hit a gaudy .322 against lefties like Kershaw this year. Dusty will have to figure out how to maximize his lineup but Werth’s dominance against southpaws this year (and throughout his career) makes those game 1 lineup decisions easier.
Trea Turner = Stud.
Turner 2016: 73 games, 13 HR, 33 SB .342/.370/.567
Ichiro’s first 73 games: 3 homers, 27 SB .350/.377/.463#hmm #nats— Sam Alaska (@SAlaskaBarstool) October 3, 2016
Yasiel Puig was mentioned in the same conversation as Bryce Harper back in 2013. So much has changed. While Harper won an MVP award, Puig descended into mediocrity and even took a stint in the minor leagues this year. Since returning, he has been more of a platoon bat – starting only against lefties so we probably won’t see him in the starting lineup. Maybe it’s my own stupidity but how is Puig, a poor OF with bad OBPs and 22 homers over the past two seasons still such a notable player? Josh Reddick, acquired by the Dodgers with pitcher Rich Hill at the trade deadline, didn’t make a great first impression in the Chavez Ravine – he was just 11 for his first 79 with one extra base hit and his triple slash (.139/.200/.152) didn’t even add up to .500. Since then, he has been playing much, much better. Since then? he has blistered – hitting .382/.420/.526 in 82 trips to the plate. Reddick will exclusively hit against righties and it’ll be interesting to see which Josh (Hot September Josh or Cold August Josh) shows up for the series. Joc Pederson is a big power guy and a big swing-and-miss guy and he struck out about 30% of the time after the all-star break. He’s someone we should definitely watch out for because he does have momentum shifting power but Max Scherzer should be able to trick him into striking out a few times. Howie Kendrick, the Dodgers’ LF had a rough year and hit below .279 for the first time in his career (.255), I don’t want to write him off because I know if I do, he’ll come up with a huge clutch hit but Kendrick just does not scare me. The Nationals sweep the outfield. Werth is better than Kendrick, Turner can take Puig/Reddick easily, and Harper outperforms Pederson.
The Verdict
This is tight. Starting pitching is essentially a push between the two teams over the course of the series and between Scherzer and Kershaw tonight and, though I gave the slight edge to the Nats in terms of bullpen, it ultimately just comes down to who is used in which situation and who gets the job done. Offensively, the Dodgers take the infield with Grandal, Gonzalez, Seager and Turner outshining Daniel Murphy’s MVP-caliber year but the outfield belongs to DC. Harper, Turner, and Werth give Dusty Baker’s squad a clean sweep in the grass. These teams are pretty evenly matched and I think it’ll go 5 games with the Nats winning the elimination game.