UFC 205: All The Preview, Insight, And Betting Action You Can Possibly Desire In One Spot

[Editor’s Note: This is from our Stoolie, Bennett, who is a UFC aficionado and reported before on Philly’s Alverez. He would like it to be known he’s not an affliction/tapout/cargo shorts with strings UFC hardo. “Just so we’re clear. I got to work for them through an internship and started to watch the sport differently. I don’t know as much as the die hards who’ve watched since it was blood sport-esque tournament style. But I stay up on current shit and do my research.” Cool story, brah. But for real, we got ourselves a decent write up about tonight’s matches here. Take it to the bank.]

This is long. So while you’re on the toilet, have a go. But no one else writes MMA/UFC for the site, so here’s a comprehensive UFC205 preview. Agree/Disagree , it’s all good for the sport. I went through the undercard as well as main. Scroll down for PPV card, or have a read and check out the prelims as well. These are also my picks, and how I bet them, not necessarily the popular/favorite.

Wow, I thought I had a few things prepared going into this write up. For one, I know I’m sticking with Alvarez. Have to, need to. 2) I was prepared to declare this the greatest card the UFC has put together. But of course you can never speak too soon. A medical prohibition and missed weight will take two awesome matchups away.

Earlier this week the NY State Commission nixed Rashad Evans from his bout with Tim Kennedy. This was poised to be an AWESOME bout with Captain America in Kennedy and a New York native in Evans. Evans said he was physically ready to go, but the commission said otherwise. Got it? One down.

Then, this morning at the early weigh ins, (which are the actual weigh ins, the afternoon is more of a show), Kelvin Gastelum misses weight AGAIN, forcing his match with Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, off the card. This dude Gastelum is the definition of unprofessional. He’s missed weight a number of times before and has had his purse clipped because of it. Dude you literally have one job, show up for your fight at the weight you signed up for. Cut the Chic-Filet ONE TIME. Not only are you losing your own purse, you’re blatantly disrespecting your opponent who put the time in to show up at his weight. I’m sure Cerrone isn’t hurting in the pockets, and will still get paid his show/win money, but for the love of this being the first fight at MSG, be better.
Boom. Two fights down and we haven’t even touched on how many sammy’s I’m getting from the Sausage Boss at MSG.

First matchup that won’t get a lot of attention by casual fans, but is a forrrrr surrreeeeee banger:

Jim Miller (+140) v. Thiago Alves (-160)

I had something written about these guys bring awesome throwback dudes who will probably give a great performance early in the night (if you have FightPass and are into sitting on your couch from 6:30 until about 1 am.) But of course, Alves comes in overweight for his lightweight (155) debut. So in order to save the fight, Jim Miller (Jersey guy, LFG) rehydrates, gets within four pounds, and the fight is back on.
This is kind of a throwback for some of the lifers. These are two guys that have been around since the early days of the UFC. I wouldn’t say either had a real heyday, but this fight on FightPass (UFC’s version of Netflix) should bring the heat for sure. Jim Miller-company guy, lunch pail guy-is a banger and ground specialist. He’s won a few fights in a row and is always a crowd favorite. I’m sure he’ll have a lot of fans seeing as the venue is under an hour away from his hometown.

Alves is coming off a loss to Dan Henderson, a fight a lot of people thought he’d really handle. I don’t care for Brazilian fighters so much now that we’ve seen what all the USADA testing has proven. Bro, you’re deflating, give it up. LFG Jim Miller. Not crazy value, but a nice way to start the night.
Jim Miller as a DOG.

Michael Johnson (+245) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (-290)

Michael Johnson has been pretty vocal about wanting a rematch with Nate Diaz, whom he lost to a while ago. This was the night Diaz called out McGregor and the rest is history. Johnson thought he lost a close one, I beg to differ. Dude caught Diaz’s hands/shit talking all night. What did all the squawking Johnson did get him? Khabib. UFC matchmaker’s pppprrreeetttyyyy much just fed him to the wolves. You’re good? Here you go. Take this absolute MONSTER in Khabib and we’ll talk after.

While Johnson has a decent enough stand up game, he’s gotten into trouble once on the ground. So this matchup definitely does not serve him well. This will be Khabib’s first fight back from injury and he thought he should’ve been given a title shot over a loaded 155 lb. division. While he’s about to take Johnson to suplex city, getting a title shot doesn’t come to those who aren’t active. This is why Tony Ferguson will be getting the next title fight (winner of Alvarez/McGregor). The guy fights anyone and everyone whenever asked.

I’m sure all of the whacko Khabib Instagram commenters will be writing “khabib champ” under any picture posted on Saturday, but in reality, he should make light work of Johnson. Once Khabib gets him to the ground, he’s not going to give Johnson any space to work. I’m thinking a sub in the late first maybe early second round.

**Put grubhub (if you’re not boycotting)/seamless order in now***

Khabib for no value. Put him in a parlay for better value. Definitely the under.

Jeremy Stephens (+280) vs. Frankie Edgar (-340)

Another Jersey guy (Toms River what’s up) taking on a tough, yet forgettable clown. Yea, I know they may be strong words towards Stephens, but after he called out McGregor at the early presser, the guy’s a clown until further notice. Frankie has a scary motor, and scarier hands. Coached by Mark Henry, you have no idea what combos are coming. Once you get tired of his standup, Frankie gets you to the ground and ends things. It’s that simple. It sucks he didn’t take care of (a now retired) Aldo, but what are you gonna do? He’s definitely in the prime of his fighting career and he’ll work his way back, headlining Fox events because he can’t pull Conor numbers.

Jeremy “lil heathen” Stephens. Quoted by the Fighter and the Kid podcast as “First Pick all bar room brawl team,” the guy just doesn’t make it move. He’s trying to get some notoriety here, and maybe I’m biased towards the Jersey guy, but I don’t think he gets it done against Frankie. The volume is too much to handle. That being said, one over hand bomb and it could be lights out. Maybe you take a flyer on him, but I think it’d be a waste. Great for a free headliner on Fox though.

Jersey coming in hot, Frankie FTW. I like the under in a lot of his fights.

MAIN CARD

Raquel Pennington (+150) vs. Miesha Tate (-170)

A solid start to the PPV card. I love a good women’s fight, and I love Miesha Tate as a fighter, which is why I have to go with her here. A real company guy and just down to scrap. She coached Pennington on TUF a while ago, but that shouldn’t matter so much. I think in the end, Miesha’s experience pushes her over the top. It might not be pretty but she’ll get it done. I don’t think it’ll be a knock out, as women’s fights rarely are, but there’ll probably be some busted up eye’s and noses. Hopefully you’ve gotten your pizzas ordered during the pre-lims and now you can have a slice or two while this thing gets heated up.

Miesha by decision

Yoel Romero (+158) vs Chris Weidman (-180)

Another Tri State guy in Weidman about to take the screws to Yoel. Weidman is used to being a headliner, but since losing his belt, he’s back on the come up. Who better to start it with than “The Soldier of God”. Weidman is the all-American guy who the promotion wanted to be its next star. Unfortunately his personality doesn’t cater to it. He’s just a blah kind of guy. Nothing wrong with that, you just can’t expect the big pay days if you’re not a big time draw. This by no means takes away from the fact that he’s got unbelievable conditioning/toughness/wrestling. Coming out of Hofstra as an All-American wrestler, making his NY debut, he’s hopefully going to make short work of Romero.

Romero on the other hand is a former Cuban Olympic team wrestler. No slouch. But his gas tank is short, very short. He looks like a god damn ninja turtle though, so if that’s your thing… However, he’s muddied up a few of his past fights by pulling bullshit stunts like sitting on his bench too long between rounds, something that should have lost him points with the judges. He always makes excuses like not understanding the English that the ref is speaking, or he faking a nut shot. So screw em. You’re about to get worked Romero. Again, if he connects with a power shot, and wobbles Weidman, he might eek one out. But Weidman has an iron chin and doesn’t want to go out like some punk for the first show at MSG.

Weidman (America) -180

Polish Girls Whose Names Are Too Long To Write (Karolina K. vs. Joanna J.(C))

Ya gotta feel for Karolina. Walking into an absolute surgeon/technician/buzzsaw in Joanna. These two have fought before, Joanna won. I don’t think this will be much different. At 115 lbs. Joanna has got some HANDS. She’s pound for pound arguably the best striker on the roster, and I don’t think Karolina will be able to handle the volume. If you’ve been watching the clips leading up to the fight, you see Joanna just trying to live in her opponents head. Who knows if it has an effect, but it looks like Karolina is entranced by MSG. The first of the title bouts, I think Joanna ends this before the 5th round. The pizza should be done by now, a more beers consumed. Now we can move on to the last two/best? two.
Joanna as a heavy favorite.

Tyron Woodley (C) (+175) vs. Stephen Thompson (-210)

Woodley has gotten absolutely no love leading up to this fight. It sucks because he’s currently the champ and beat one of the toughest guys to get there (Lawlor). So why isn’t he a favorite going into this? Well his opponent is straight out of Miyagi’s dojo. Wonderboy Thompson is no joke. He refers to his dad as “Sir” and has been coached by him for forever. If you saw his last fight against Rory Macdonald, Thompson put on a karate clinic. He stays on the outside, uses his striking so strategically its tough to tell when its coming. He looks like he could be the poster boy for the UFC, and maybe if he gets this win, he is the poster boy for the welterweight group. But getting through Woodley, I THINK, is going to be tougher than everyone thinks.

Woodley is conditioning monster. He’s also been in this game for a while and seen it all. He’s been passed up before, and has had a nice career up to this point. His last loss came to the guy Thompson last beat in Rory Mac. That was a few years ago, and Macdonald was a lot different before his war with Robbie Lawlor. So where do you go from here? Well, I think I’ll lean with Woodley here. Everyone’s loving Thompson’s unconventional karate style. It’s great and tough to figure out. But when Woodley had to figure out Lawlor, he stormed him and knocked his ass out. I think he pressures Thompson and doesn’t let him pick his spots. He’s got to keep him on the outside of the octagon and mix in a lot of dirty boxing. It should be a great fight.
Woodley as a DOG
Beers are all flowing and you should be officially drunk and standing up yelling at your tv.

Eddie Alvarez (C 155 lb.) (+120) vs. Conor McGregor (C 145 lb.) (-140)

If you read my last write up on this matchup, you know where I stand. I’m a Jersey guy, living in Philly, who’s had some/limited experience with the UFC. I love this matchup and I love that it’s on the biggest stage in the sports universe. For the last week or so, I was starting to waiver on whether I’d actually go with Alvarez in this. Conor is the once in a lifetime type fighter who has transformed this sideshow to a real mainstream sport. Hats off to him. While other guys hate his bravado, I’m sure they’re thankful someone’s shouldered this sport and put it where it is today.
He can also back all of it up. At 155 lbs Conor has the potential to take two different classes belts at the same time. This has never been done in the UFC. Guys have come back at different weights after losing a title, and then winning at a lower class, but never at the same time. This is exciting. Conor’s hands are like missiles. He’s got pinpoint accuracy and he calls his shot and how the fight will play out beforehand. He said this is ending in the first round. Why not believe him?
Well, I’m not about to switch this up now when I’ve been behind the blue collar Philly guy from the jump. Sure, it was satisfying when the Giants held on against the Eagles, but I’m not rooting for an Irishman over the Philly bul. Eddie’s been in WARS before. McGregor got pants’d by Diaz and then won a narrow (albeit fair/democratic/electoral) decision. Unless he catches Eddie with his hands down, I don’t think he puts him out. If Eddie comes out with his head down swinging? Ehhhh going to be short work for Conor. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen. The reach may be a problem, as Conor has 5 inches, but let Eddie get inside and box him up, then it becomes a dog fight. I’ll take Eddie in a dog fight any day.
ALSO- I’ll tell you why. The IT guy at work-Tom- just walked by and told me he went to North Catholic in 1982. He’s a real character. He grew up in Kensington, right around the corner from Eddie. If that’s not an omen… well, it’s probably not an omen.
Enjoy.

Alvarez to wrap up my Miller-Khabib-Frankie-Miesha-Weidman-Joanna-Woodley parlay. All the marbles.