SEC Tournament Starts Today: Preview, Picks, Storylines
We saw the SEC have a resurgence this year. The years of Kentucky/Florida dominating the league and then hoping to get 2 more teams in the NCAA Tournament simply didn’t happen. Auburn and Tennessee, both predicted to finish in the bottom half of the standings in the preseason ended up with a share of the title. It’s pretty remarkable when you consider Auburn lost its two most talented players due to suspension. Tennessee doesn’t have a star. Yes, I know Grant Williams won SEC Player of the Year, but how many casual fans know who Grant Williams is? It’s incredible coaching jobs by Rick Barnes and Bruce Pearl. Here’s this year’s SEC bracket:
Odds: For those that like some sweat. These are the odds via Oddsshark:
Bubble Teams that Need a Win: Go right to that 8/9 game wit Alabama and Texas A&M. Alabama desperately needs a win. I know they have some impressive wins, but they are firmly on the bubble after losing its final five games. A win over Texas A&M, which would make up for the 68-66 it just took to the Aggies last game, would likely push Alabama to the right side of the bubble. A&M is somewhere in that 8/9 game right now as well, but a win wouldn’t hurt. They key for A&M was finishing 9-9 in conference play. The only other bubble team in the conference is Mississippi State. They would likely need two wins in order to be on the bubble conversation, especially since the second win would come over Tennessee.
Value Team to Take: This tournament is absolutely wide open. The two teams I sort of like here from a longer odds standpoint would be Texas A&M at 10/1 and Missouri at 14/1. We don’t know if Michael Porter Jr., is going to play, but if he does and this taking place in St. Louis, you can’t tell me we won’t see a run. As for A&M. Yes, the Aggies don’t really have guards. But, they have pro bigs. Throw in the fact they get a banged up Auburn squad in the second game if they beat Alabama and they could be on the right path here. Same goes for Missouri who, if it wins the first game would get Kentucky and then the winner of the 1/8/9 game.
Players to Watch: You know about most of these players. You know Kevin Knox, Jalen Hudson, Grant Williams, etc. We’ll be taking a look at some of the other guys across the league that perhaps the casual fan doesn’t know much about yet.
Lamonte Turner (Tennessee) – Tennessee is led by Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield, but it’s Lamonte Turner who brings that something extra to this team. Turner, along with Bowden, are two guys who can really help stretch the court and let Williams and Schofield cook on the interior. Turner is currently shooting 40% from three and is averaging 10 points per game, the 3rd highest on the team.
Wenyen Gabriel (Kentucky) – The sophomore for Kentucky has taken a leap this year as he’s become more consistent. The one problem is he tends to find himself in foul trouble in the first half. At 6’9″, Gabriel provides that stretch four spot and with Kentucky starting to go small, it’s important that he’s shooting the ball well and rebounding. When Gabriel is locked in, Kentucky is that much better on the defensive side of the ball. Yes, Knox and Gilgeous-Alexander are great, but Gabriel’s play is vital to this team.
Daniel Gafford (Arkansas) – The freshman big is only going to be at Arkansas this year. He’s a future lottery pick and his athleticism and skillset tends to show off. He’s excellent at protecting the rim and with guys like Macon and Barford out there he fits the role perfectly. He tends to finish at the rim with a dunk, looking for putbacks and lobs. With him protecting the rim, the Arkansas guards can gamble a little bit more out on the wing.
Egor Koulechov (Florida) – The Rice transfer and one time Arizona State transfer is another reason as to why Florida is successful this year. He’s an excellent rebounder for his size and tends to play larger than the 6’6″ frame he has. Koulechov is also an excellent shooter as he’s shooting 40% from three. When Florida goes small and runs him at the four, it absolutely disrupts what teams want to do defensively. You can’t sag off of him and putting five shooters on the floor is something we don’t see a lot of.
Jared Harper (Auburn) – One of the most impressive things about Auburn is how well it shares the ball on the offensive side of the ball. That’s what happens when you have 80 possessions in a game and you know you’re going to get yours. Jared Harper is doing just that as he’s averaging over 5 assists per game while still scoring 14. He’s 52nd in the country in assist rate and has been able to improve his shooting from 34 to 37% and free throw shooting from 70 to 83%.
Storylines to Watch
1. How well does Michael Porter Jr., Play?
This is the biggest question of the tournament. Porter was cleared for basketball activities a couple weeks ago, but he’s still making his way back from back surgery that cost him all but 2 minutes this season. It is now reported that Porter will play in tomorrow’s first round game. The thing is – he’s still been off the court for so long, can he immediately step in and play 30 minutes? Cuonzo Martin said a couple weeks ago he’s the type of player you don’t want to bring back just for 10 minutes, you want him playing 25-30 minutes. How quick can he shake the rust off and look like the top-5 player?
2. Is Jarred Vanderbilt’s injury serious?
It came out today that Jarred Vanderbilt of Kentucky is day-to-day with an injury suffered in practice. That injury is believed to be an ankle sprain of some sort. Vanderbilt missed the first 3/4 of the season with an injury before coming back and really igniting what Kentucky has been able to do because he can play that small-ball four or five spot. He’s a ball of energy when he comes in and his game mimics what Lamar Odom used to do – sans the shooting. He looks to rebound and push. He’s an excellent offensive rebounder. He’s a great passer for his size. If Vanderbilt can’t go, Kentucky could be in trouble. The report sounds like he may be sitting out.
3. Is this the most wide open tournament of the year?
Yes, Tennessee is a really good team. Yes, Auburn is a really good team. But, as I’ve said they both have weaknesses. They both are vulnerable to losses as is every team in the conference. We’ve seen Florida be as good as top-5 team in the country and as bad a team that we’ve seen. Kentucky is the same way. Arkansas is great at home and average on the road. This tournament is going to be awesome and WILD. There are probably 5-6 teams that have legit shots at winning this thing, because out of all the tournaments this is the one that is arguably most match up dependent. As I said earlier, this league is good this year and not what we’re used to seeing in the SEC.
Predictions
First Round: No. 13 Vanderbilt over No. 12 Georgia, No. 11 South Carolina over No. 14 Ole Miss
Second round: No. 8 Texas A&M over No. 9 Alabama, No. 5 Missouri over No. 13 Vanderbilt, No. 6 Arkansas over No. 11 South Carolina, No. 7 Mississippi State over No. 10 LSU
Quarterfinals: No. 8 Texas A&m over No. 1 Auburn, No. 4 Kentucky over No. 5 Missouri, No. 3 Florida over No. 6 Arkansas, No. 2 Tennessee over no. 7 Mississippi State
Semifinals: No. 8 Texas A&M over No. 4 Kentucky, No. 3 Florida over No. 2 Tennessee
Finals: No. 3 Florida over No. 8 Texas A&M
MVP: Chris Chiozza (Florida)
All-Tournament Team: Chris Chiozza (Florida), Jalen Hudson (Florida), Robert Williams (Texas A&M), Grant Williams (Tennessee), Quade Green (Kentucky)
Why Florida: It’s going to be open and if Florida can hit shots this is the best team in the conference. Like I said, there are five-six teams that can win this thing and I’m just taking a shot with Florida getting hot again. I think Chiozza absolutely goes off and there are some matchups that they can exploit.