Katie Stats' Games of the Week
It is almost conference championship week. Almost. Still have to get through another slate. This one isn't great, isn't terrible, just alright. I think there are 2 games that stand above the others this weekend. (RIP Michigan vs. OSU.) UNC at Miami; no I'm not biased look at the slate, it is a ranked matchup for a NY6 bowl birth. The second is America's game, Army vs. Navy, for obvious reasons. It is just a shame that it isn't on a stand alone weekend. Sure there are other interesting moments, like to see if Kyle Trask can further his Heisman argument. But as a whole the LSU Florida game isn't too exciting. But with dull slates, come upsets so here's hoping. Just watch the CFP committee have to sort out some chaos. Also, if Auburn loses to Mississippi State, is Gus Mahlzahn fired? Let's talk some football.
#17 North Carolina @ #10 Miami, 3:30pm, opened Miami -3, 63.5
Matchup: UNC has covered 4/L5. Home team is 7-1 ATS in their L8 meetings. In ranked matchups this year the home favorite is 13-1 SU.
2019: UNC won 28-25 @ UNC (UNC +5, o45.5)
2018: UM won 47-10 @ UM (UM -18.5, o55.5)
2017: UM won 24-19 @ UNC (UNC +21, u55.5)
2016: UNC won 20-13 @ UM (UNC +6, u67)
UNC (7-3) coming off of a 49-9 win over Western Carolina, a bye week, and a 31-17 loss to Notre Dame the week before. Games are averaging 69.7 total points with UNC scoring 41.1 of them. Can run the ball but favor throwing. Has the 5th best total offense with 534.5 ypg.
Spread: Hasn’t covered their L3 games. After a SU win, are 0-4 ATS in the L4. On the road are 2-5 ATS in their L7 games.
Total: When an underdog by 7 or less against a ranked team, the under has hit the L4 times.
SU: Have lost their L8 games as an underdog on the road.
Miami (8-1) shut out Duke 48-0 last week, had 2 weeks off due to covid issues, and beat Virginia Tech 25-24 the week prior. Games have been averaging 56.9 total points, with Miami scoring 34.9 of them. Beat VT by 1, beat NC State by 5, and beat UVA by 5.
Spread: In ranked matchups are 1-4 ATS in the L5 games. At home against teams with a winning record, they are 5-1-1 ATS in the L7.
Total: The under is 3-1 in the L4 games. Against ranked teams, the under is 4-1 in the L5.
SU: Have won the L7 games at home against teams with a winning record.
I 100000% think that UNC has the ability to win this game. Notice how I say the ability, and not "will win." Miami is overhyped, and hasn't had a great win yet, but they still are a very good team. But I think that both teams are playing for a NY6 bowl birth and to solidify each program's upward momentum with a new coach. So I think it is really up to which team plays their A game. I genuinely am not sure about the cover, plus I won't touch it because it is my own team. The play I will pick is the over. Not too confident in either team's defense, and know that both offenses will likely score when they want to.
Navy @ Army, 3:30pm, opened Army -6, 42.5,
Matchup: hasn’t been played at West Point since 1943, which is also the last time it wasn’t at a neutral site. At least the L14 have gone under. The 3rd rushing offense, Army, against the 109th rushing defense, Navy. This is the 4th time this century that Army is favored.
2019: Navy won 31-7 @ Philly (Navy -11.5, u42)
2018: Army won 17-10 @ Philly (Navy +7.5, u38.5)
2017: Army won 14-13 @ Philly (Army +2.5, u44.5)
2016: Army won 21-17 @ Baltimore (Army +6, u46.5)
Navy (3-6) lost to Tulsa 19-6 and lost to Memphis 10-7 the week before. Games are averaging 50.4 total points, with Navy scoring 18.4 of them. They are allowing an average of 212.6 rushing ypg, which is 109th in the nation. They favor the run, but only have an average of 292.6 offensive ypg.
Spread: When an underdog by less than 7 are 4-1 ATS in the L5.
Total: On the road, the over is 8-1-1 in the L10, and over in the L5 when the underdog too. When an underdog by less than 7, the over has hit the L5 times.
SU: Have lost their L4 games.
Army (7-2) hasn’t played for 2 weeks, beat Georgia Southern 28-27 and lost to Tulane 38-12 the week prior. Games have been averaging 46.9 total points, with Army scoring 30.6 of them. They are essentially a run only team; they average only 50.2 rushing yards per game. But they are 3rd in the nation in rushing offense.
Spread: At home are 5-2-1 in the L8 games. When favored by less than 7, are 1-4 in the L5.
Total: The L3 have gone over.
SU: Have won their L9 games as a favorite.
As low as the total is, I'll still take the under. 14 unders in a row? Let's make it 15. I also like Army to cover; they're the better team, have had longer to prepare for it, and it is at their field for the first time since 1943. So feed me a 17-6 game.
LSU @ #6 Florida, 7:00pm, opened UF -22.5, 69.5
Matchup: The #1 passing offense, Florida, against the #125 passing defense, LSU.
2019: LSU won 42-28 @ home (UF +14.5, o55)
2018: UF won 27-19 @ home (UF +1, o44.5)
2017: LSU won 17-16 @ away (UF +1.5, u44)
2016: UF won 16-10 @ away (UF +14, u37.5)
LSU (3-5) lost to Alabama 55-17 last week, and lost to Texas A&M 20-7 the week before. Games have been averaging 62.2 total points with LSU scoring 28.8 of them. Can run the ball but are a pass heavy team. Has the 125th passing defense, and 115th total defense. TE Arik Gilbert has officially opted out, he was 2nd in receiving yards.
Spread: As an away underdog, they’re 4-0-1 ATS in the L5 games. As an away team against a ranked team, they’re 7-1 ATS in the L8 games. As an away underdog team against a ranked team they have covered their L4.
Total: As an away team, the under is 4-1
Florida (8-1) beat Tennessee 31-19 last week and beat Kentucky 34-10 the week before. Games have been averaging 67.1 total points, with Florida scoring 42 of them. Can run the ball but are a pass heavy team. Has the top passing offense in the country at 376.7 ypg.
Spread: Against an unranked team at home, they’re 7-1-2 ATS in the L10 games. When favored by 21+ at home, are 5-0-2 ATS in the L7.
Total: The L3 have gone under. Against unranked teams the under is 4-1 in the L5. When favored by 21+, the under is 4-1 in the L5.
Florida and by however many points they want. LSU's team is crumbling and has an atrocious pass defense. No, I don't think this is going to be a look ahead spot for Florida; Mullen wants revenge from last year and these two teams do not like each other. Plus the passing offense vs. defense mismatch? Can you spell blood bath? I also like the over here, but not really sure if LSU has much firepower to put up many points so not as confident about that.
Wisconsin @ #16 Iowa, 3:30pm, (opened Iowa -3, 43.5)
Matchup: Wisconsin has won the L4, and the L5 at Iowa. Wisconsin is 4-1 ATS in the L5 games at Iowa. In a ranked matchup, when the home team is an underdog by 3 or less, they have lost and not covered the L5 games.
2019: Wisconsin won 24-22 @ home (Iowa +7.5, o37.5)
2018: Wisconsin won 28-17 @ away (Wisco -3, o44)
2017: Wisconsin won 38-14 @ home (Wisco -12, o45.5)
2016: Wisconsin won 17-9 @ away (Wisco -4, u42.5)
Wisconsin (2-2) lost to Indiana 14-6 last week, had a bye week due to covid issues in Minnesota, and lost to Northwestern 17-7 the week before. Games have been averaging 39.1 total points, with Wisconsin scoring 26.8 of them. Split evenly between throwing and running the ball. Wisconsin has the top rushing defense, passing defense, and total defense.
Spread: After a SU loss are 0-4 ATS in the L4 games.
Total: When the total is set at 45 or less, the under is 5-1 in the L6. As an unranked team against a ranked team, the last 4 games have gone under.
SU: The L6 times Wisconsin had lost 2 in a row, they won the next game. As an unranked team playing a ranked team on the road, have lost the last 6.
Iowa (5-2) beat Illinois 35-21 last week and beat Nebraska 26-20 the week before. Games are averaging 49.6 total points, with Iowa scoring 32.3 of them. Split fairly evenly between running and throwing the ball.
Spread: When playing an unranked team at home, are 1-4 ATS in the L5.
Total: At home, the under is 6-1 in the L7 games, and when also favored is 5-1 in the L6. When the total is set at 45 or less, the under is 5-1 in the L6. When playing an unranked team at home, the under is 4-1 in the L5.
SU: Have won their last 5 games after starting out 0-2. Have won the L5 against unranked teams.
This is an under if you dare. The game is going to be very low scoring, but under, as of this moment, 41.5? Well, put some hair on your chest and take the under. As for the cover? I think Iowa has more momentum here, but Wisconsin is also looking to bounce back, but not sure if they even have the ability to. So just the under, not touching the spread.
As usual, if you do bet on these games, please do so responsibly.