Why Your Favorite Baseball Team Can And Cannot Contend This Year: 2025 American League Edition
It's that magical time of the year where baseball returns to our lives to give us hope before completing tearing down any positive cell we possess in our bodies. Before we go any further though, this is your annual reminder to opt-in to free MLB TV offer from T Mobile. They realistically could triple their monthly rates for phone bills and I'd keep paying just for this perk, even if it no longer made any financial sense. No free ads, but I'm just helping the people out here.
Now to the baseball. The 2025 season is upon us where we'll have one team playing all their home games in a minor league stadium and another in a different club's spring training complex. Juan Soto is a Met. The Yankees can grow beards. Tommy John surgery is more common than the cold. The Red Sox are trying again. The Dodgers are as loaded as humanly possible. Oh and a lockout in two years seems all but certain. Hell yeah. This is either my 3rd or 4th year doing this long-winded blog series where I give everyone a little primer on the teams across the league. We'll talk additions, subtractions, sprinkle in some predictions, and maybe share a laugh or two along the way. Overall when we're talking words per click it's a giant waste of time on my end, but I like doing it! Let's dive in with the American League first. You'll get the National League at some point after I regain feeling in my fingers from writing this one. Kinda crazy there isn't one team with an over/under win total above 90 in the whole AL.
Odds (WS odds and win total) always powered by our good friends over at Draft Kings.
AL East
New York Yankees (+850, 89.5)
The defending AL champs head into the year with a whole new look. No actually half of them will probably have beards as the franchise joins the 21st century. The biggest personnel change is the departure of Juan Soto, who left for the cross-town rival Mets because his mom liked them more. That and $765 million. The front office decided to pivot from the Soto loss by strengthening the pitching staff and attempting to make the lineup deeper. That saw Max Fried, Devin Williams, Paul Goldschmidt, and Cody Bellinger enter the fold. For a moment if you squinted the team looked potentially better off than last season, but then the hammer was dropped on everyone. Gerrit Cole's precious UCL in his elbow snapped and required Tommy John surgery. Their starting rotation that was once either 1 or 2 in baseball, no longer was feared. On top of that, last year's AL ROY Luis Gil is also going to miss at least three months while he nurses a strained lat. The Yankees are going to need to hope their youth take a big step up and inject some life into the roster. Cody Bellinger is probably the team's most important player considering he'll be slotted right behind Judge in the order. I don't anticipate many teams challenging the reigning MVP early on, or at all, which will put a lot of pressure on Belly to make teams pay. If he can channel his MVP runner up form from a few years ago then we may be in business. If he struggles this could get bad fast with the offense putting up run totals in bottom third of the league.
Contend: At least 3 out of the 5 of Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells, Ben Rice, and Will Warren become impact players. Luis Gil returns in the summer refreshed and healthy. Bellinger rides his red hot Spring into the regular season and fits in seamlessly behind Judge. Paul Goldschmidt doesn't even need to be an MVP to make everyone forget about Anthony Rizzo. Just stay healthy, field your position, and drive the ball a little bit. The bar is so low at first after last year. There's reason to believe this lineup can be pretty deep, albeit not as potent as 2024's version. The strength of the team will undoubtably be the bullpen with Weaver and Williams potentially combining to be the most fearsome 8-9 duo in the sport. So yeah, all that and they should be in a good spot. No problem.
Fail: At the start of the offseason the assumption was that Marcus Stroman would no longer be on the team come Opening Day. With the injuries at hand he's now the number three pitcher. Carlos Rodon was supposed to be the 4 and now he's got the ball on Opening Day. Carlos Carrasco is in a 2025 starting rotation. If no one hits around Judge he'll get the 4 finger sign to first regularly and the lineup will drag big time. Luis Gil's return in the summer is not a guarantee. There's no way this rotation can hang on if he misses an even bigger chunk than expected. There's possibly a disaster brewing in left field if Jasson Dominguez can't catch the ball out there. Just something to monitor. But yeah, there's a whole lot that can go wrong here.
Baltimore Orioles (+1600, 87.5)
Outside of Corbin Burnes departure to Arizona, the biggest change with the Orioles for this upcoming season is the left field wall. Built to contain the power bats of the Yankees (mainly Gleyber Torres at the time), the monstrosity of a left field protector was a disaster from the jump. Finally they came to their senses and brought that shit in.
The lack of activity the Orioles had this offseason was nothing short of mind boggling. Not addressing the rotation or pen is so short-sighted I can't make heads or tails of it. How can you have the offensive talent that they possess, along with new ownership, and choose to just sit on your hands like they did? I'd be furious if I was a fan, but hey they have the splash zone.
Contend: Grayson Rodriguez needs to come back from his elbow inflammation and become a true horse in the American League. Getting Felix Bautista back should stabilize the pen a lot assuming his health holds up. The strength of this team will definitely be the offense. Adley Rutschman needs a big bounce back season. I don't know what caused the 2024 drop off, but a .709 OPS doesn't cut it for a guy like him. Jackson Holiday being a comfortable pro baseball player would be a nice surprise, especially if he's going to hit in the bottom of the order. This lineup can scare the shit out of you if they're clicking and they're going to need to click a lot.
Fail: This isn't a serious starting rotation for a contender, and if Grayson takes a while to come back with his elbow trouble this gets bleak fast. Charlie Morton is 41 years old.
I just don't get where any of the new money is going. The whole idea of having guys like Gunnar, Adley, Cowser, etc. under team control at the same time is you spend on the pitching and go for it. I'm not asking for you to force a trade or spend money just to spend it, but you gotta do better than this.
Boston Red Sox (+2000, 86.5)
For the life of me I do not understand why the Orioles have better odds than the Red Sox to win the World Series. Even them being +350 to win the East seems too long with the Yankees at +135 and Baltimore +270. Am I missing something? Garret Crochet is poised to wrestle Tarik Skubal for the AL Cy Young. Might have to sprinkle on +450 to hedge my sadness. Seems moronic for Boston to not extend him right now before he gets going, but what do I know? Bregman is the flashy offensive addition who essentially completes the lineup and greatly helps the defense. There was a big commotion about the defensive alignment and where Devers will end up, but I feel like that will play itself out with the results. Update: Cora just announced Devers as the fulltime DH so there ya go. This offense is going to score a ton of runs, it's just a matter of what the rotation gives you after Crochet.
Contend: The most exciting part of this team is the youth. Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer are knocking on the door. Campbell made the team out of spring and will be the starting second baseman. If these guys come up and run wild the Sox are the favorites to win the AL and setup for a lot of future success. Bregman should pepper the monster and Crochet, like I just said, is poised to dominate every lineup he faces. While the Aroldis Chapman addition is hilarious and weird, the trio of Chappy, Whitlock, and Hendriks could give Boston their best back end of bullpen they've had in years.
Fail: Alex Bregman hasn't had an elite offensive season since the juiced ball year of 2019. If there's cause for concern with Crochet it's that he had an innings jump from 12.2 to 146 from 2023 to 2024. While he's a big dude, that kind of increase is a big precursor to either getting injured or tiring out in the 2nd half. Maybe that's why Boston's front office wants to see more before handing him a massive extension. After Houck, the team's rotation kinda falls off. Walker Buehler really only started to look like himself in the postseason last year. Can you count on him for a full season to be right? Richard Fitts and Sean Newcomb as your 4-5 isn't the most assuring thing in the world to start the year. Bello will be back at some point, but he's yet to really establish himself. Kutter Crawford will be back too. Will the front office finally be aggressive during a trade deadline? No guarantees there either. The starting rotation is what dooms this team if they're to struggle in 2025.
Tampa Bay Rays (+1700, 81.5)
The Rays will be playing their home games at the Yankees' spring training complex in Tampa because of the hurricane damage to the Trop.
I can't wait for the Yankees to lose a road game in their own spring training home. No funky games at the Trop will be odd, but it's for the best. That place is an abomination.
As for the Rays, well they'll be their typical pesky selves. A big speed bump in their plans hit the other day however when Shane McClanahan's arm stopped working during one of his starts.
Boy do they need Shane back at the top of their rotation. Supposedly the early news on the injury is on the good side with it being called an inflamed nerve in his left tricep. Still not what you want coming off a second TJ surgery, but at least he's not done this very second.
By far the most exciting part of the upcoming Rays year is getting a full season of Junior Caminero.
This is a dude with a ton of power in his bat as you can see in the above video where hit a baseball about 7000 feet to dead center. Get this man up with as many men on base as they allow and hope for the best. Just don't be Wander Franco and that's a good start.
Contend: 2024 was the Rays first year finishing below .500 since 2017. They'll need to have starting pitching come together. A full healthy year of Drew Rasmussen will help that. Taj Bradley needs to take a jump as well. McClanahan must shake off this early injury and return to dominant form. Maybe playing their home games outside will give them some added juice?
Fail: There's just not enough talent here on both sides of the ball. The Yankees will have the joint boobie trapped all season to ensure the Rays don't make a mockery of the situation and use it to their advantage. Manfred wants the owner to sell and for good reason.
Toronto Blue Jays (+6000, 78.5)
The Blue Jays are entering a very scary moment of their franchise. Both Bo Bichette and Vladdy Jr. have one year left on their deals. Bo is coming off a nightmare season and Vladdy wants to get Juan Soto money if he has a big year. After being a bridesmaid on virtually every big named free agent over the years, they finally got SOMEONE in Anthony Santander. Max Scherzer joins the rotation on a one year deal.
Contend: The starting rotation has potential to be solid, especially if Max gives you anything in the back end. Bo Bichette has to bounce back, right? I mean what the hell was his 2024? After back to back full seasons where he led the league in hits, Bo was a shell of himself and had an OPS below .600. It was shocking, especially from a guy who seemed built to be a consist beast at the top of a lineup. If the Jays are going to be fun in 2025 Bo Bichette has to revert back to being a table setter.
Fail: There's a scenario here where the front office blows this thing sky high at the deadline, trying to get assets for both Bo and Vladdy. They probably hang onto them both and just lose them in free agency like fools, but if they're smart they get as many assets as they can and start fresh. Trade Berrios and Gausman too. This core just isn't it.
AL Central
Minnesota Twins (+2500, 84.5)
The Twins surprised me a little bit having better odds to win the AL Central (+210) than both the Royals and Tigers who are at +270 each, followed by the Guardians at +400. I think that tells us that we can expect a dog fight for the division all season long with the White Sox donating wins to whoever is up next. The offseason for Minnesota involved them adding Ty France on a one year deal as well as Harrison Bader. Good stuff fellas.
Contend: Carlos Correa was fucking awesome when healthy last year, but he missed nearly half the team's games. The hype and thought of Royce Lewis always outweighs the actual result considering he is NEVER healthy. Case in point he's already on the IL with a strained hamstring. Dude just can't stay on the field. One year we need a full 162 from this guy, but that feels next to impossible. If Correa and Lewis combine to play 250 games the Twins win the division. Are Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober about to be incredible this year? Pitching would have to dominate for legit success to come from this roster.
Fail: The rotation is fine, but nothing to write home about. Lewis already being sidelined isn't great and Correa is made of actual glass. I'm just not in love with anything going on here. Feels like a typical AL Central team that has no real shot at anything special. I don't get why they're the AL Central favorite.
Kansas City Royals (+3000, 83.5)
Now unlike the Twins, the Royals at least tried this offseason. Jonathan India and Carlos Estevez join the squad as the new lead off hitter and closer. They also tried to acquire Starling Marte, Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, and Taylor Ward. They made the postseason and got a taste of some success. They didn't sit on their hands in the offseason and instead aimed to improve. Good for them.
Contend: Pitching, pitching, pitching. There's a lot to like in the pen whether it be Estevez, Ecerg, Hunter Harvey, or Angel Zerpa. Cole Ragens is a stud at the top of the rotation followed by some legit depth with Lugo and Wacha. Of course Bobby Witt Jr. is a maniac, but can they get another big offensive year by Salvy? India at the top could be fun as well.
Fail: I'd say lineup depth could doom the Royals. They're a bit top heavy and a good pitcher could have his way with them. At the end of the day they're an AL Central team and have a capped ceiling for what they want to accomplish as brutally honest as that sounds.
Detroit Tigers (+3500, 83.5)
The Tigers are another AL Central team I like a hell of a lot more than the Twins. They brought in former Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres and familiar face Jack Flaherty. We got a taste of phenom Jackson Jobe last year, but now we get the whole thing. This man is a demon and a fun ROY bet at a shade under +1000 currently.
Contend: The Tigers stormed into the postseason and shocked the world by taking out the Astros. That's a confident group of young fellas who are only going to get better. At their very worst they're a scrappy team that is going to give teams fits in series all season long. Helps to have the reigning AL Cy Young Tarik Skubal on your team who simply doesn't give up runs. While Gleyber going to Comerica doesn't really bode well for his offensive numbers taking a jolt compared to Yankee Stadium, a change of scenery could allow him to relax and thrive. As we saw in October, this bullpen is full of guys who are nightmares to face.
Fail: While they did make the postseason last year, it did involve them winning almost every game from August 23rd and on. The offense definitely lacks firepower, especially if Torkelson's 2023 season is not repeatable. There's also a very big possibility Gleyber Torres is a disaster in this stadium, especially working on a prove it one year deal that'll definitely be in his head all season long.
Cleveland Guardians (+4000, 82.5)
The Guardos trip to the ALCS was followed by a retooling of the roster. Gone are Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez. In comes Carlos Santana? Ownership here is extremely cheap and un-inspiring. Nevertheless there is talent on the roster with guys like Jo-Ram, Kwan, and a bullpen full of danger if you're trailing to them and trying to win a close game. That's this team's bread and butter and always will be.
Contend: Shane Bieber is throwing well and expected back from his TJ surgery rehab sometime in the summer. They're going to need him as this rotation is not the most fearsome in the world by any means. The formula for Cleveland is to scrap together three to four runs and then shut down opposing lineups with pitching.
Fail: The lineup after Jose Ramirez isn't pretty. You know they aren't going to add much at the deadline either. There's also a chance Emmanuel Clase is broken after his disaster of a postseason last October.
Chicago White Sox (+don't even bother, 53.5)
This is not a baseball team. For fuck's sake look at the pitching staff. Sean Burke is the Opening Day starter. No offense to Sean but he's made three MLB starts in his career. I wish him the best of luck. Look at this staff.
This roster is a crime against humanity. How they'll draw any fans after last year is beyond me. The manager said he THINKS they'll be better than their 2024 version. The team that lost a record 121 games. Can't even confidently say they'll improve. There's a chance they're somehow worse than that and that is truly unbelievable.
Contend: An end of the world scenario becomes realistic, forcing a select number of humans to live underground in a secret city in order to continue humanity's existence. Yes, this is the plot of the show Paradise. Eventually they start up a pro baseball league for entertainment purposes and one of the teams happens to be named the White Sox. None of these current players lived to make the team, but whatever guys made the roster I'd assume have a better shot than this group
Fail: If they don't reset the loss record again it should be viewed as a legitimate accomplishment.
AL West
Houston Astros (+1500, 87.5)
The Astros looked themselves in the mirror this offseason and decided change was needed. As you know, Alex Bregman is in Boston now. Star outfielder Kyle Tucker was traded to the Cubs. Isaac Paredes is at 3rd base with Christian Walker opposite him at 1st. Jose Altuve has changed positions and now occupies left field which has been quite the circus to witness during spring training.
In theory the minimal ground to cover in left field in Houston's home park will make it easier for Altuve to handle, but on the road he might be a full-on disaster. Or he adjusts like the pro that he is and it's a total non-story.
Kikuchi, Verlander, and Pressly are also on other teams. A fun wrinkle to end camp was prospect Cam Smith, who was in the Kyle Tucker trade, making the team which gave us this emotional moment.
Contend: Isaac Paredes might hit 35+ homers with the Crawford Boxes in left field considering his pull happy tendencies. The combination of Altuve-Paredes-Yordan-Walker can do a shit ton of damage at the top. Hunter Brown is going to need to build off of his very good 2024 and become a horse at the top of this rotation next to Framber.
Fail: There's definitely a chance the defense here is a fucking shit show. What scared off teams of Christian Walker is his age, with no telling when he's gonna fall off a cliff. Trading away your best young star is certainly a move that can backfire quick. Kyle Tucker was a monster, but they didn't want to come away empty handed when it came to his upcoming free agency. Replacing him is not going to be easy. Helps to have Cam Smith ready to jump in, but he's as raw as it gets. Pitching wise this rotation can go one way or the other. Definitely some good upside, but it's not an open and shut case.
Seattle Mariners (+2800, 84.5)
Stop me if you heard this one before, but the Mariners didn't improve their offense in the offseason. Imagine just working in a front office and you know you have a clear area to improve your competitive team and you actually spend months doing nothing. Obviously that's an ownership problem more than a GM, but what the fuck guys? Guess what, the Mariners are going to have very good pitching and their offense won't score enough runs to do anything about it. Tale as old as time.
Contend: Julio Rodriguez wins the MVP and Randy Arozarena thinks COVID is back? Someone hijacks the front office at the deadline and trades for like Vladdy Jr.
Fail: Things just go as they have been as the organization continues to waste the elite pitching that they possess.
Texas Rangers (+2500, 85.5)
I worry the Rangers are everyone's sexy pick to make a splash in 2025 and come out of the AL. People aren't sold on the Sox just yet, the Yankees got worse and are injured, the Central doesn't exist, Houston takes a step back. There's room for someone fun to emerge who wasn't in the mix at all last year. Texas seems to be it. Adding Jake Berger and Joc Pederson to a lineup that already had a ton of firepower makes this offense a beast. Seemingly everyone had a down year for them in 2024, but it's a new day and a new season so forget about that and start mashing.
Contend: Jacob deGrom has to stay healthy for the Rangers to be actually scary. They're slotting him in the back of the rotation for now to ease him into the year. He said he's gonna try and sit 97 mph and not go nuts for 100+ like in years past. He's looked plenty good in spring and at the moment is healthy. Just has to stay that way because the rest of the rotation after Eovaldi isn't the most assuring. On paper this offense should have no problem scoring 5+ a game.
Fail: deGrom blows his arm out again and the youth in Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker don't burst onto the scene. While Leiter has the stuff to pitch in the big leagues, the control still isn't there. Just can't be walking 4+ guys a night and survive. They always say relievers are the easiest to find at the deadline, but I could easily see this pen being a disaster to navigate and make work.
Athletics (+25000, 71.5)
Yeah that's right, the A's don't have a city attached to their name. Oakland is gone, Vegas is soon, and Sacramento is now, but they refuse to go by anything until they're in their fancy stadium in Sin City. For now they play in a minor league stadium and that should be something to witness. Gonna be weird they'll actually have pretty packed venues at home now, albeit a much smaller capacity.
The A's actually did some stuff this offseason, although it came through the pressures of the league threatening a grievance against them for lack of spending. That sparked the signing of Luis Severino and locking up cornerstone pieces in Brent Rocker and Lawrence Butler.
Contend: Some crazy shit would have to go down for the A's to actually do something in 2025. Like an elaborate cheating system in this minor league stadium that no one could figure out. They're not going to be boring with guys like Butler and Rooker at the top of the order, but Severino would have to be a front line ace all of a sudden to even begin to start believing in crazy shit. Just keep Mason Miller healthy so he can put up another year of jaw dropping strikeouts where hitters look like they have no idea what's even happening.
Fail: I have no faith in this organization with Fisher running the show. Karma will never reward him with good things.
Los Angeles Angels (+20000, 71.5)
The Angels had their typical offseason where they threw some money at random names and hoped it would blindly build a roster. Yusei Kikuchi, Kyle Hendricks, Jorge Soler, and Kenley Jansen come on down! Mike Trout is moving over to RF in hopes it puts less of a toll on his body. We'll see if there's anything that can spare his body of the carnage it's taken over the years. It'd be nice to see Trout for 130+ games. Sadly that number hasn't been reached since 2019.
Contend: I'd say Trout stays healthy and returns to MVP form, but they didn't win when he did that either. Maybe go find that rally monkey.
Fail: Arte Moreno is one of the worst owners in the league and should have sold when he said he was going to.
Alright that's enough words for the IL. I'm going to find an ice bath and throw my hands in there to regain the feeling. Here's Ana de Armas to take us out of the blog.
