Why Your Favorite Baseball Team Can And Cannot Contend This Year: 2025 National League Edition
Annnnnnd we're back for the National League version of this nightmare of an idea that I came up with a few years ago where I write thousands of words about baseball to get us ready for Opening Day. I just self-administered a cortisone shot to my hands which will allow me to absorb the pain. Dear Antler Spray is also at my side in a "break glass" last resort option as we finish this bad boy off.
If you missed yesterday's AL edition, have at it here.
Let's dive in…
Once again, all odds are powered by our good friends at Draft Kings.
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies (+1200, 91.5)
The NL East is set to be a three man dogfight all summer long. The Phillies are mostly the same as they were last year with the exception of Jesus Luzardo joining the rotation, Jordan Romano becoming the new closer, and Max Kepler replacing Austin Hays in left. On paper the Phillies are loaded with a powerful lineup and fearsome rotation. Romano is a big piece to the puzzle as he looks to regain his form and forget whatever the hell happened in 2024. This core isn't getting any younger though and you have to wonder if they missed their window to win it all when they lost to the Astros a few years ago in the World Series. Time is ticking.
Contend: The Phillies are seeking revenge for how their postseason fell apart last year. That should be a big motivator, especially with the Mets even better than last year and the Braves poised to bounce back. There is so much firepower at the top of this lineup whether it be from Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, or Trea Turner. The rotation is plenty lethal itself and deep as hell even with Ranger Suarez sidelined to start. I'm not positive we see Andrew Painter this year, but he comes up look out. That large man is a monster in waiting.
Fail: It's kinda odd that Alec Bohm is still on the team as it seemed like a lock he'd be shipped off in the offseason. Congrats to him on dating ESPN's Erin Dolan by the way.
Maybe their relationship being public will unlock him even more. In theory they'd rather a better man at the hot corner like Alex Bregman, but that's not to say he's going to bring down the whole team, but it's hard to pick apart this roster and see how it's going to truly flop. It doesn't help that the Braves and Mets will be neck and neck with them all year long. Health of their aging players would be a concern.
Atlanta Braves (+750, 93.5)
Like the Phillies, the Braves on paper should be a problem all year. Spencer Strider's return from TJ surgery is looming and boy does he look good right now.
He'll join a rotation with reigning Cy Young winner Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and awesome young arm Spencer Schwellenbach. Ronnie Acuna should be back around May and will only make this offense even scarier.
Contend: The talent on this roster is immense and should give teams issues constantly throughout the season. It's a boring answer, but it's fairly self explanatory. Getting an MVP and a Cy Young candidate back on a roster that made the postseason is a pretty good recipe. Keep an eye on rookie catcher Drake Baldwin adding even more depth to this ridiculous lineup.
Fail: As incredible as Chris Sale was in 2024, he hadn't posted a good full season before that since 2018. Can you really count on Sale to stay healthy again? If he goes down you're putting more and more pressure on Strider to hold up. I think no matter what the offense is going to hit, but pitching can be the downfall here if the big two don't come through.
New York Mets (+1200, 90.5)
Everyone is talking about the Mets and for good reason. Steve Cohen went out and got his franchise player in Juan Soto. Fans will learn rather quickly how much easier that will make the rest of the lineup flow. The Mets offense in 2024 was already potent as can be. Hell, that offense nearly carried them to the World Series by itself. Their pitching staff is going to be a bit tricky to navigate, but with Pete Alonso also back, that offense is going to win them a ton of games just by itself.
Contend: The Lindor-Soto-Alonso trio at the top destroys pitching staffs. Mark Vientos continues his blistering 2nd half and becomes one of the best young bats in the game. Clay Holmes' transition as a starting pitcher goes as well as possible as his new kick-change pitch makes him even more unhittable. The walks become limited somehow and don't become an issue. They'll need Sean Manaea to come back from his oblique injury and not have any setbacks. Senga is going to have to be handled delicately, and he already is being slotted as the team's number 5 pitcher. No matter what I see the Mets having to go out and get a premier SP at the deadline to really set them up for a World Series run. The thing is Cohen is the perfect owner to be aggressive like that. They're in really good shape.
Fail: As dominant as Clay Holmes has looked this spring, the regular season against real MLB hitters is a different story. I'd be concerned how his arm holds up with a full starter's work load. This guy has gone his whole big league career as a reliever throwing 60ish innings a year. How is he going to look in the 2nd half of the season? My guess is very tired. Another cause for concern? Edwin Diaz's velo is down and there's no telling if it's going to tick back up to what we're normally seeing. It was also down last year so I'm not sure this is just a Spring Training thing. Pitching will doom the Mets if they're to struggle. Senga has thrown 5.1 innings since the end of the 2023 season. In between him and Holmes you're looking at Megill, Canning, and David Peterson until Manaea returns. I wouldn't count on anything from Frankie Montas either. I have no doubts the offense will be elite, but the pitching has big question marks.
Washington Nationals (+30000, 72.5)
Look the Nats are not a good team, but at least they have some fun pieces to go watch at the ballpark if you're looking for a night out. James Wood, Dylan Crews, and CJ Abrams can light up your eyes with their talent. There's not enough here to be a Cinderella team by any means so don't get too excited. Brad Lord's story is great though.
Contend: The National League Wild Card race would have to get really bleak. Like what we're currently seeing out of the Eastern Conference play-in scenario with basketball. Just be happy that there are legit young core pieces in place here that probably have this team in an interesting spot come a few years from now.
Fail: Just win some games here and there against the Braves, Mets, and Phils to spoil their momentum. That's all you're getting. Root for Crews to be a star so you people can talk about him in that draft and not just Skenes.
Miami Marlins (+50,000, 63.5)
I don't know what the Marlins plan is, but it's certainly not winning. Let's play a fun game, which part of the team is worse, the pitching?
or the hitting?
It's genuinely repulsive to look at and I don't wish to talk about it anymore. The National Guard should be involved here.
Contend: Nuclear war would have to break out in the US, but Miami avoids the blasts somehow. Similar to the White Sox joining a league in a post-apocalyptic world, the Marlins would need to do the same except maybe they get to keep their players because Sandy Alcantara exists.
Fail: The only interesting part here is if they finish worse than the White Sox. That lineup might do the trick.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs (+3000, 85.5)
Pretty crazy, but the Cubs haven't made the postseason since the shortened 2020 Covid season. In their quest to snap that streak, the team made a big splash this offseason and traded for Astros star outfielder Kyle Tucker. They've also added a closer in Ryan Pressly along with some depth pieces like Justin Turner and Jon Berti. Top prospect (13th overall) Matt Shaw made the team out of Spring Training as well. There's a lot to like here, especially in a division that's pretty much up for grabs.
Contend: There's plenty of offense in this lineup and with Tucker being a way better version of Cody Bellinger the Cubs may very well have something here. You may only have King Tuck for one year depending on what happens with his upcoming free agency so best to make it count. Steele, Shota, and Jamo can give you a pretty damn good 1-2-3 in the rotation. I imagine they'll be everyone's sexy pick to win the division.
Fail: I don't necessarily love the back end of their rotation, so if you get an injury to a top arm that'd be pretty tough to manage. As great as Tucker is, he's kinda the only elite offensive option they have offensively. Teams could choose to pitch around him and live with anyone else hurting them. Would be fun if they went out at the deadline and added a second big bat, but I'm not optimistic there.
Milwaukee Brewers (+5000, 83.5)
The boring Brewers did a whole lot of nothing this offseason. Fresh off their stunning wild card series loss to the Mets, the team has kinda hit the skids. Willy Adames and Devin Williams are gone. They're kinda just hoping their young guys take over and the pitching just finds a way.
Contend: It's not going to be overly difficult to contend in the NL Central since no one is gonna run away with it. That being said if the Brewers are going to be a factor then their youth came to play. Jackson Chourio, Garret Mitchell, Brice Turang, and Sal Frelick need to all be impact players. Christian Yelich was finally having a big season before his back needed surgery and cost him the rest of the season. He's had a great Spring and feels healthy again. If Yelich is going to be posting a .900 OPS like he was in 2024 then the Brewers may have some life.
Fail: Even if the bats come alive, I really don't think the pitching is anywhere close to deep enough to have this team making the playoffs. Also good luck replacing Devin Williams as your closer.
Cincinnati Reds (+9000, 78.5)
The Reds may be the flashiest group of anyone mentioned here in the central. Are they ready to win? That's another story. But Hunter Greene, Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain is a really good trio to build around.
Contend: Elly De La Cruz would have to find consistency in his game and become an MVP candidate if it meant the Reds are truly contending for something real in 2025. Hunter Greene needs to stay healthy and continue to shove. The Brady Singer acquisition could be a sneaky good one especially since Jonathan India was replaceable in the lineup. Maybe buy at the deadline for once and give your fans something to be excited about. Gotta stay in the race til then to make that happen though.
Fail: The pitching most likely dooms them here.
St. Louis Cardinals (+12000, 76.5)
Want to hear something hilarious? Nolan Arenado is still on the Cardinals. How that's possible I have no idea. Obviously the Cards didn't add anyone of significance this offseason. If it were up to them they'd have no veterans left on the team. You have to imagine Arenado, Sonny Gray, and Brendan Donovan are playing for different teams come this year's deadline, right???
Contend: Not a chance in hell
Fail: This is going to be a bad baseball team and the front office is going to love it. What happened to this franchise? What the fuck are they doing?
Pirates (+12000, 77.5)
In theory if you had one of the best pitchers in baseball who fans traveled through the ends of the Earth to go watch, you'd want to build an offense around said person so that you could prosper from the situation. Bob Nutting wants nothing to do with that. The organization outright refuses to add any significant offensive help to this team. You'll get Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, an old Andrew McCutchen, IKF, Ke'Bryan Hayes and you'll like it.
Contend: Jared Jones' elbow situation doesn't get worse and we see him return sometime in June. Skenes runs away with the Cy Young and Bubba Chandler makes his debut forming a dynamic trio of horses in the rotation. Bob Nutting is kidnapped and the owner in place decides offense is fun so they go out and buy at the deadline.
Fail: Bob Nutting is a terrorist. Just keep Skenes healthy is all I beg.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (+275, 103.5)
What more can you say about the Dodgers at this point? Hell, they're already 2-0 after the two Japan games. Their rotation consists of Blake Snell, Yamamoto, Roki Sasaski, Tyler Glasnow, and Dustin May. Oh, and Shohei Ohtani is probably going to start pitching in May as if they needed anything else. Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller, and Landon Knack will be depth pieces on top of that and if they require more at the deadline the front office won't hesitate to cooperate. Offensively you have 50/50 generational one of a kind superstar Ohtani, Betts, Freddie, Teoscar, it doesn't stop. I'm just glad the Yankees aren't in the NL.
Contend: This Dodgers team is going to be like -600 when they host the Rockies and have Blake Snell pitching. It's going to be historic. It would be stunning if they don't have the division wrapped up by mid-August. Fuck them.
Fail: Turns out Shohei was an actual degenerate gambler and it all becomes public, forcing him to be thrown in jail. Mookie and Freddie were helping him cover the whole time so they go to jail as well. Roki and Yamamoto leave the team in disgust and head back to Japan. The Dodgers barely miss the playoffs after retooling at the deadline falls just short.
Arizona Diamondbacks (+2500 86.5)
Fun fact about the Diamondbacks - they led all of baseball in runs scored in 2024. Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez, Gurriel Jr., Jake McCarthy. These guys all hit. Yes they did lose Christian Walker and Joc Pederson, but they gain Josh Naylor. The big fish of the offseason was obviously Corbin Burnes who will form a nasty 1-2 punch in their rotation with Zac Gallen.
Contend: The Snakes should be fighting hard for a wild card spot all year. They'll have to deal with two out of three from the NL East along with the rest of this division, but there's too much talent here to not be ultra competitive. Besides the Dodgers there's a chance this is the best starting rotation in the NL. Need to get Ginkel and Graveman online and off the IL, but there's so much pitching here.
Fail: I guess if I'm going to nitpick it's the offense taking a step back with the departures of Joc and Walker who were big boppers in the middle of the order. Naylor is no slouch and should fit in seamlessly, if not be better than Walker in his present form. While Corbin Carroll did rebound in the 2nd half last year, it'd be concerning if he started slow again and didn't show more signs of what happened in 2023.
San Diego Padres (+2800, 85.5)
Who the hell knows with this Padres team? They still have a ton of talent, but it feels like a hand is constantly hovered over the big red "blow it all up" button. At any given moment they could trade Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Luis Arraez. On the flip side they were a win away from knocking out the eventual World Series champs in the NLDS. Jackson Merrill is incredible and only going to get better. Tatis is off the roids and the motorcycles, poised to explode and be an MVP candidate. The Xander contract is a bit of a downer, but there's still a ton to like from both the pitching (especially the pen) and this lineup.
Contend: The Padres get off to a hot start and build a ton of momentum, making the roster impossible to tear down. Tatis finishes runner up for MVP and Michael King wins the Cy Young. There's a big ceiling for this team.
Fail: As I said before, the Padres ownership is a disaster with the family fighting over who is in control and what direction they want to take the team. All offseason they flirted with trading big pieces in an effort to lower their payroll. Those are not good signs for the prosperity of a baseball team. If they get out of the gates slow you could see a massive fire sale that has them finish near the bottom of the NL West.
San Francisco Giants (+8000 80.5)
The Giants finally convinced a "big" free agent to come play for them. Shortstop Willy Adames come on down! It's a lot of money, but he's a hell of a ball player and they were desperate. Unfortunately the rest of the lineup is pretty meh. The pitching is going to need to carry them with Logan Webb, Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, and Jordan Hicks carrying the load. What they get out of Verlander will be fascinating. The Giants will need to throw up a ton of zeroes this year and play great defense because runs will be far and few between unless they start cheating again like a few years ago when they won 100 games.
Contend: Repeating myself here, but that rotation needs to dominate from the jump. Verlander has to avoid injury at 42 years old and find himself once more. Maybe in a healthy season Jung Hoo Lee turns some heads and becomes a fun, exciting piece.
Fail: I worry about the bottom half of the lineup being automatic outs. 80 wins feels like the perfect number for this team. They're the definition of mid.
Colorado Rockies (58.5, +50000)
The Rockies might as well be money laundering at this point. They're a shell company and certainly not a Major League Baseball team. What is any of this?
The offense has a bunch of guys seemingly trapped in the organization like Ryan McMahon, Kris Bryant, and Brenton Doyle. Tovar is fun and young, but there's not enough of him. Let all of these guys go and allow them to explore the rest of the league.
Contend: Honestly just start cheating. No way anyone is going to care either way. How do you not look at what the Astros got away with, facing no penalty really at all, and not at least try. There's honestly nothing to lose.
Fail: Just finish better than the White Sox and Marlins and call it a season.
And that's it for the National League. Hope you enjoyed some of it. Hand up, I'm not on top of every team's emerging prospects so we're going to miss a few things here and there. I'm just happy baseball is back and I can go home to watch a full slate of games every night. Will it eventually rip my heart out? No doubt about it, but that's the fun of it all. Enjoy.
Here's Jennifer Aniston to take us into first pitch